Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG• Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

#31.6:1.61-0FTToday · Estadio Morelos, Morelia1.6:1.0#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.76DAFX3.72MAR25.29PINMargin at best2.6%Books10Markets70Rating44 · 56Exp. goals L52.9

Price board · 1X2captured 12 Nov 20:34 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.68	3.81	5.24	4.9%
Bet365	1.73	3.60	4.75	6.6%
Dafabet	1.73	3.65	4.60	6.9%
1xBet	1.65	3.72	4.88	8.0%
BetVictor	1.65	3.60	5.00	8.4%
Marathonbet	1.66	3.84	4.50	8.5%
Betano	1.67	3.60	4.70	8.9%
Betfair	1.62	3.80	4.40	10.8%
William Hill	1.67	3.40	4.60	11.0%
SBO	1.69	3.23	4.06	14.8%
Best of all books	1.73	3.84	5.24	2.9%
Average	1.68	3.63	4.67	8.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MonarcasLeones Negros UDG

Last 10#3Table position#21.73Points per game2.009Form pts · last 591.6Goals for · last 51.61.6Goals against · last 51.050Attack rating5038Defence rating6250Form rating5040H2H rating6040Goals model6044Overall rating56

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 12 Nov 14:30 UTC

Monarcas

5W 2D 3L · goals 14:12 · per match 1.4 for, 1.2 against

8 Nov	H	Venados FC	2-1	W
4 Nov	A	Venados FC	2-1	W
1 Nov	A	Durango	1-3	L
25 Oct	A	Tapatío	2-1	W
18 Oct	H	CDS Tampico Madero	1-2	L
10 Oct	A	Tepatitlán	1-1	D
4 Oct	H	Tlaxcala	1-1	D
26 Sep	A	Venados FC	1-2	L
20 Sep	H	Leones Negros UDG	2-0	W
13 Sep	A	Mineros de Zacatecas	1-0	W

Leones Negros UDG

5W 2D 3L · goals 19:14 · per match 1.9 for, 1.4 against

8 Nov	H	Durango	2-1	W
6 Nov	A	Durango	0-1	L
1 Nov	H	Tepatitlán	3-1	W
25 Oct	A	Mineros de Zacatecas	2-0	W
18 Oct	H	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1-2	L
10 Oct	A	Venados FC	1-1	D
4 Oct	H	Dorados	6-3	W
26 Sep	A	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2-1	W
20 Sep	A	Monarcas	0-2	L
13 Sep	H	CA La Paz	2-2	D

Head to head

5Monarcas wins

2draws

10Leones Negros UDG wins

17 meetings · goals 13:21 · last 10: 3W 0D 7L for Monarcas

20 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Monarcas2-0Leones Negros UDG
5 Apr 2026Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG2-0Monarcas
26 Oct 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Monarcas2-3Leones Negros UDG
11 May 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG2-0Monarcas
4 May 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Monarcas2-0Leones Negros UDG
21 Mar 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG2-1Monarcas
5 Oct 2024Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Monarcas0-2Leones Negros UDG
5 Apr 2024Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Monarcas0-2Leones Negros UDG
19 Nov 2023Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG2-0Monarcas
16 Nov 2023Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Monarcas2-1Leones Negros UDG

Liga de Expansión MX tablePrimera A: Aperturaupdated 13 Nov 08:40 UTC

In the Liga de Expansión MX table, Monarcas sit 3rd with 26 points from 15 games, while Leones Negros UDG are 2nd with 30 points from 15.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	15	9	3	3	36:18	+18	30
2	Leones Negros UDG	15	9	3	3	34:20	+14	30
3	Monarcas	15	8	2	5	26:19	+7	26
4	Piratas	15	7	4	4	27:15	+12	25
5	Cancún	15	7	4	4	28:18	+10	25
6	Venados FC	15	7	4	4	31:25	+6	25
7	Durango	15	7	3	5	21:15	+6	24
8	Tlaxcala	15	6	4	5	29:27	+2	22
9	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	15:25	-10	22
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	26:26	0	18
11	Tapatío	15	5	3	7	25:28	-3	18
12	Correcaminos Uat	15	4	5	6	21:24	-3	17
13	Dorados	15	4	4	7	23:32	-9	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	15	4	3	8	15:25	-10	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	15	3	5	7	17:24	-7	14
16	Tepatitlán	15	2	1	12	11:44	-33	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg155%1.68X26%3.56220%4.69

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.70 → 1.68 -1.2%X3.64 → 3.56 -2.2%24.40 → 4.69 +6.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.99	1.85	4.3%
SBO	1.99	1.83	4.9%
Bet365	1.95	1.85	5.3%
1xBet	1.87	1.86	7.2%
Marathonbet	1.68	2.09	7.4%
Betfair	1.60	2.20	8.0%
Betano	1.90	1.80	8.2%
BetVictor	1.88	1.79	9.1%
Best of all books	1.99	2.20	-4.3%
Average	1.86	1.91	6.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.91	1.80	7.9%
1xBet	1.84	1.86	8.1%
Betfair	1.65	2.10	8.2%
BetVictor	1.85	1.83	8.7%
Marathonbet	1.66	2.06	8.8%
Betano	1.87	1.80	9.0%
Best of all books	1.91	2.10	-0.0%
Average	1.80	1.91	8.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Monarcas 10%Draw 45%Leones Negros UDG 45%

The statistical model rated Monarcas at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Leones Negros UDG at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.68 | 3.56 | 4.69, which imply roughly 28.1% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga de Expansión MX table: Monarcas are 3rd (26 pts, 26-19 goals), Leones Negros UDG 2nd (30 pts, 34-20).

Over their last five matches, Monarcas averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Leones Negros UDG averaged 1.6 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Leones Negros UDG.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.68	3.63	4.67

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.16	2.09	1.23

Draw no bet

1	2
1.25	3.54

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.80	1.91

1st half

1	X	2
2.20	2.20	4.99

2nd half

1	X	2
1.99	2.59	4.56

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.53	14.9	40.1
HT X	4.47	5.68	9.72
HT 2	21.4	15.3	7.70

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.54	11.9	2.70

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	9.53
1.5	1.25	3.61
2.5	1.86	1.91
3.5	3.02	1.34
4.5	5.75	1.11
5.5	9.34	1.03

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.02	8.30
1	1.02	8.50
1.25	1.12	4.89
1.75	1.27	3.23
2	1.41	2.70
2.25	1.65	2.15
2.75	2.10	1.68
3	2.44	1.49
3.25	2.47	1.47
3.75	3.40	1.24
4	4.46	1.14
4.25	4.78	1.12
4.75	5.70	1.08
5	8.65	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.79	1.37
-1.25	2.47	1.47
-1	2.14	1.67
-0.75	1.83	1.90
-0.5	1.69	2.12
-0.25	1.43	2.59

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	11.0	1.01
-3	9.55	1.02
-2.75	6.53	1.05
-2.5	5.13	1.10
-2.25	4.75	1.12
-2	4.40	1.14
-1.75	3.41	1.26
0	1.26	3.45
+0.25	1.19	4.07
+0.5	1.22	4.41
+0.75	1.08	5.60
+1	1.02	8.65
+1.25	1.03	7.20
+1.5	1.02	9.45

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.02	7.00
7.5	1.14	4.19
8.5	1.34	2.84
9.5	1.62	2.14
10.5	2.01	1.73
11.5	2.57	1.42
12.5	3.49	1.22
13.5	5.06	1.08

7 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.03	6.45
8	1.18	3.78
9	1.43	2.54
10	1.81	1.90
11	2.31	1.52
12	3.18	1.27
13	4.69	1.11

Next Liga de Expansión MX matches

15 Nov

CA La Paz – Piratas

All Liga de Expansión MX fixtures and the table

Latest Liga de Expansión MX results

12 Nov	Piratas 1-1 CA La Paz
9 Nov	Piratas 1-1 Cancún
8 Nov	CA La Paz 3-3 Tlaxcala
8 Nov	Monarcas 2-1 Venados FC
6 Nov	Cancún 1-1 Piratas
5 Nov	Tlaxcala 0-1 CA La Paz