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CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala• Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

#12.6:1.03-3FT08/11 · Estadio Guaycura, La Paz2.0:1.0#8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.60B365X4.67PIN24.91PINMargin at best4.3%Books10Markets88Rating61 · 39Exp. goals L53.3

Price board · 1X2captured 8 Nov 00:01 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle1.584.714.924.8%
Bet3651.574.504.757.0%
Dafabet1.574.504.707.2%
1xBet1.584.454.527.9%
BetVictor1.534.504.808.4%
Marathonbet1.564.454.558.6%
Betano1.574.354.558.7%
Betfair1.534.334.5010.7%
William Hill1.534.204.5011.4%
SBO1.464.134.5614.6%
Best of all books1.584.714.924.8%
Average1.554.414.638.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

CA La PazTlaxcala
Last 10#1Table position#82.00Points per game1.4713Form pts · last 5102.6Goals for · last 52.01.0Goals against · last 51.057Attack rating4350Defence rating5057Form rating4375H2H rating2568Goals model3261Overall rating39

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 5 Nov 18:01 UTC

CA La Paz

7W 2D 1L · goals 25:11 · per match 2.5 for, 1.1 against

5 NovATlaxcala1-0W
31 OctHDorados3-0W
25 OctACDS Tampico Madero3-1W
17 OctHTlaxcala2-2D
9 OctATapatío4-2W
3 OctHVenados FC1-2L
25 SepAAlebrijes de Oaxaca3-1W
19 SepHCorrecaminos Uat3-1W
13 SepALeones Negros UDG2-2D
5 SepHMineros de Zacatecas3-0W

Tlaxcala

5W 3D 2L · goals 19:13 · per match 1.9 for, 1.3 against

5 NovHCA La Paz0-1L
31 OctACruz Azul Hidalgo2-0W
25 OctHCorrecaminos Uat2-0W
17 OctACA La Paz2-2D
10 OctHPiratas4-2W
4 OctAMonarcas1-1D
26 SepHCancún4-1W
20 SepATapatío0-4L
12 SepHCDS Tampico Madero3-1W
5 SepADurango1-1D

Head to head

4CA La Paz wins
4draws
1Tlaxcala wins

9 meetings · goals 19:14 · last 9: 4W 4D 1L for CA La Paz

17 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCA La Paz2-2Tlaxcala
8 Mar 2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCA La Paz2-0Tlaxcala
28 Sep 2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXTlaxcala3-3CA La Paz
11 Jan 2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCA La Paz4-4Tlaxcala
27 Jul 2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXTlaxcala0-2CA La Paz
17 Feb 2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXTlaxcala2-3CA La Paz
27 Sep 2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCA La Paz1-0Tlaxcala
4 Apr 2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXTlaxcala1-0CA La Paz
10 Aug 2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCA La Paz2-2Tlaxcala

Liga de Expansión MX tablePrimera A: Aperturaupdated 8 Nov 07:20 UTC

In the Liga de Expansión MX table, CA La Paz sit 1st with 30 points from 15 games, while Tlaxcala are 8th with 22 points from 15.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1CA La Paz1593336:18+1830
2Leones Negros UDG1593334:20+1430
3Monarcas1582526:19+726
4Piratas1574427:15+1225
5Cancún1574428:18+1025
6Venados FC1574431:25+625
7Durango1573521:15+624
8Tlaxcala1564529:27+222
9Alebrijes de Oaxaca1571715:25-1022
10Mineros de Zacatecas1553726:26018
11Tapatío1553725:28-318
12Correcaminos Uat1545621:24-317
13Dorados1544723:32-916
14CDS Tampico Madero1543815:25-1015
15Cruz Azul Hidalgo1535717:24-714
16Tepatitlán15211211:44-337

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg158%1.57X21%4.35220%4.49

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

5 Nov 18:007 Nov 23:001 1.55X 4.402 4.60
11.56 → 1.55 -0.6%X4.41 → 4.40 -0.2%24.61 → 4.60 -0.2%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.373.095.4%
Bet3651.402.757.8%
BetVictor1.333.008.5%
Betano1.372.779.1%
1xBet1.332.8310.5%
Marathonbet1.332.8310.5%
Best of all books1.403.093.8%
Average1.352.888.5%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
1xBet1.422.668.0%
BetVictor1.402.708.5%
Marathonbet1.422.618.7%
Betano1.452.509.0%
William Hill1.442.509.4%
Best of all books1.452.706.0%
Average1.432.598.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

CA La Paz 45%Draw 45%Tlaxcala 10%

The statistical model rated CA La Paz at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Tlaxcala at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.57 | 4.35 | 4.49, which imply roughly 63.7% for a CA La Paz win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga de Expansión MX table: CA La Paz are 1st (30 pts, 36-18 goals), Tlaxcala 8th (22 pts, 29-27).

Over their last five matches, CA La Paz averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Tlaxcala averaged 2 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : CA La Paz or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

CA La Paz

3-4-2-1

Coach: H. Castillo

Goalkeeper

  • 33G. Alcalá

Defence

  • 21C. Robles
  • 28U. Zurita
  • 15H. Torres

Midfield

  • 25F. Illescas
  • 20M. García
  • 5E. Torres

Attack

  • 77J. Alonzo
  • 9Jordi Ferrer
  • 30Á. Robles
  • 10M. Barragán
Substitutes (10)
  • 13É. Alaffita
  • 17L. Chiu
  • 22J. Daccarett
  • 16Yahir Del Aguila
  • 23J. Estrada
  • 6D. Hernández
  • 18I. Larios
  • 12O. Millán
  • 11R. Rentería
  • 2S. Vazquez

Tlaxcala

4-4-1-1

Coach: A. Ortega

Goalkeeper

  • 22N. Bedolla

Defence

  • 1I. Govea
  • 29M. Trejo
  • 21E. García
  • 3E. Santos

Midfield

  • 12Julián Freyfeld
  • 6A. Iniestra
  • 23P. González
  • 16M. Ramírez

Attack

  • 24R. Hernandez
  • 11D. Álvarez
Substitutes (10)
  • 17Jesse Zamudio
  • 8F. Plascencia
  • 30Abraham Nuño Gómez
  • 7G. Hernández
  • 28J. Hernández
  • 2C. González
  • 25B. Flores
  • 9Christian Henrique Mota de Oliveira Silva
  • 19R. Camacho
  • 26J. Blanco

Match Statistics

CA La PazTlaxcala
2.84Expected Goals2.24
387Passes accurate304
12Shots insidebox12
3Shots outsidebox4
2Blocked Shots5
5Free Kicks10
6Shots on Goal5
2Goalkeeper Saves3
7Shots off Goal6
2Offsides2
444Total passes350
15Total Shots16
3Yellow Cards4
3Corner Kicks11
12Fouls4
0Red Cards0
45%Ball Possession55%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.554.414.64

Double chance

1XX212
1.162.301.16

Draw no bet

12
1.263.59

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.432.59

1st half

1X2
1.992.644.50

2nd half

1X2
1.833.044.25

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 12.2115.134.1
HT X4.778.0211.0
HT 217.315.47.50

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.4824.02.54

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0118.0
1.51.086.21
2.51.362.88
3.51.931.81
4.53.011.33
5.55.291.12
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.0213.0
1.751.085.60
21.105.15
2.251.233.51
2.751.402.57
31.522.33
3.251.722.01
3.752.131.65
42.471.47
4.252.761.36
4.753.591.21
54.651.12
5.254.951.11
69.001.01

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.752.711.40
-1.52.361.51
-1.252.091.67
-11.871.89
-0.751.662.07
-0.51.542.41
11 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.57.901.02
-37.201.03
-2.755.201.10
-2.54.151.16
-2.253.741.22
-23.521.25
-0.251.392.73
01.233.63
+0.251.183.88
+0.751.085.50
+11.028.30

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
6.51.017.11
7.51.124.50
8.51.302.99
9.51.562.22
10.51.931.78
11.52.471.45
12.53.301.25
13.54.661.11
14.57.081.01
24 more lines
LineOverUnder
6.751.026.83
71.017.07
7.251.075.43
7.751.144.29
81.154.08
8.251.233.42
8.751.342.85
91.382.70
9.251.482.42
9.751.642.12
101.722.00
10.251.821.88
10.752.041.69
112.201.59
11.252.321.52
11.752.661.39
122.971.31
12.253.121.28
12.753.681.19
134.301.13
13.254.491.12
13.755.441.07
146.661.03
14.256.871.02

Latest Liga de Expansión MX results

9 NovPiratas 1-1 Cancún
8 NovMonarcas 2-1 Venados FC
6 NovCancún 1-1 Piratas
5 NovTlaxcala 0-1 CA La Paz
4 NovVenados FC 1-2 Monarcas
1 NovLeones Negros UDG 3-1 Tepatitlán