Piratas vs CA La Paz• Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

#42.2:0.61-1FTToday2.4:1.2#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.81DAFX3.95PIN24.38PINMargin at best3.4%Books10Markets88Rating53 · 47 levelExp. goals L53.2

Price board · 1X2captured 12 Nov 00:19 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.76	3.95	4.38	5.0%
Bet365	1.80	3.80	4.10	6.3%
Dafabet	1.81	3.70	4.00	7.3%
1xBet	1.72	3.80	4.25	8.0%
BetVictor	1.73	3.75	4.20	8.3%
Marathonbet	1.70	3.80	4.25	8.7%
Betano	1.72	3.70	4.15	9.3%
William Hill	1.73	3.60	4.00	10.6%
Betfair	1.70	3.70	4.00	10.9%
SBO	1.70	3.52	3.61	14.9%
Best of all books	1.81	3.95	4.38	3.4%
Average	1.74	3.73	4.09	8.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PiratasCA La Paz

Last 10#4Table position#11.67Points per game2.009Form pts · last 5112.2Goals for · last 52.40.6Goals against · last 51.248Attack rating5267Defence rating3345Form rating550H2H rating10053Goals model4753Overall rating47

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 12 Nov 04:20 UTC

Piratas

4W 4D 2L · goals 20:12 · per match 2.0 for, 1.2 against

9 Nov	H	Cancún	1-1	D
6 Nov	A	Cancún	1-1	D
1 Nov	H	Tapatío	1-1	D
25 Oct	A	Dorados	5-0	W
18 Oct	H	Tepatitlán	3-0	W
10 Oct	A	Tlaxcala	2-4	L
4 Oct	H	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4-0	W
25 Sep	A	Mineros de Zacatecas	0-3	L
19 Sep	H	Venados FC	2-1	W
11 Sep	A	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1-1	D

CA La Paz

6W 3D 1L · goals 25:14 · per match 2.5 for, 1.4 against

8 Nov	H	Tlaxcala	3-3	D
5 Nov	A	Tlaxcala	1-0	W
31 Oct	H	Dorados	3-0	W
25 Oct	A	CDS Tampico Madero	3-1	W
17 Oct	H	Tlaxcala	2-2	D
9 Oct	A	Tapatío	4-2	W
3 Oct	H	Venados FC	1-2	L
25 Sep	A	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3-1	W
19 Sep	H	Correcaminos Uat	3-1	W
13 Sep	A	Leones Negros UDG	2-2	D

Head to head

0Piratas wins

0draws

1CA La Paz wins

1 meeting · goals 0:2 · last 1: 0W 0D 1L for Piratas

15 Aug 2026Liga de Expansión MX

Liga de Expansión MX

CA La Paz2-0Piratas

Liga de Expansión MX tablePrimera A: Aperturaupdated 11 Nov 18:00 UTC

In the Liga de Expansión MX table, Piratas sit 4th with 25 points from 15 games, while CA La Paz are 1st with 30 points from 15.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	15	9	3	3	36:18	+18	30
2	Leones Negros UDG	15	9	3	3	34:20	+14	30
3	Monarcas	15	8	2	5	26:19	+7	26
4	Piratas	15	7	4	4	27:15	+12	25
5	Cancún	15	7	4	4	28:18	+10	25
6	Venados FC	15	7	4	4	31:25	+6	25
7	Durango	15	7	3	5	21:15	+6	24
8	Tlaxcala	15	6	4	5	29:27	+2	22
9	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	15:25	-10	22
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	26:26	0	18
11	Tapatío	15	5	3	7	25:28	-3	18
12	Correcaminos Uat	15	4	5	6	21:24	-3	17
13	Dorados	15	4	4	7	23:32	-9	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	15	4	3	8	15:25	-10	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	15	3	5	7	17:24	-7	14
16	Tepatitlán	15	2	1	12	11:44	-33	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg153%1.74X25%3.73222%4.09

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.68 → 1.74 +3.6%X3.95 → 3.73 -5.6%24.22 → 4.09 -3.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.69	2.20	4.6%
Bet365	1.70	2.10	6.4%
Betfair	1.60	2.20	8.0%
BetVictor	1.64	2.08	9.1%
Betano	1.62	2.10	9.3%
1xBet	1.58	2.12	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.58	2.12	10.5%
Best of all books	1.70	2.20	4.3%
Average	1.63	2.13	8.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.62	2.20	7.2%
Betfair	1.57	2.25	8.1%
1xBet	1.60	2.19	8.2%
Marathonbet	1.60	2.16	8.8%
Betano	1.60	2.15	9.0%
BetVictor	1.60	2.15	9.0%
Best of all books	1.62	2.25	6.2%
Average	1.60	2.18	8.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Piratas 10%Draw 45%CA La Paz 45%

The statistical model rated Piratas at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and CA La Paz at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.74 | 3.73 | 4.09, which imply roughly 26.8% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga de Expansión MX table: Piratas are 4th (25 pts, 27-15 goals), CA La Paz 1st (30 pts, 36-18).

Over their last five matches, Piratas averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; CA La Paz averaged 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or CA La Paz.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.74	3.73	4.09

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.20	1.97	1.22

Draw no bet

1	2
1.32	3.11

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.60	2.18

1st half

1	X	2
2.27	2.32	4.32

2nd half

1	X	2
2.01	2.70	4.14

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.59	14.5	34.5
HT X	4.65	6.18	9.35
HT 2	19.9	14.8	6.78

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.55	14.1	2.53

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	12.9
1.5	1.17	4.30
2.5	1.63	2.13
3.5	2.57	1.46
4.5	4.58	1.15
5.5	8.38	1.03

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	9.60
1.25	1.07	5.80
1.75	1.19	3.80
2	1.24	3.34
2.25	1.45	2.52
2.75	1.78	1.92
3	2.00	1.72
3.25	2.28	1.55
3.75	2.78	1.37
4	3.74	1.20
4.25	4.05	1.16
4.75	5.45	1.08
5	7.50	1.03
5.25	7.30	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.86	1.36
-1.25	2.57	1.44
-1	2.24	1.60
-0.75	1.93	1.80
-0.5	1.74	2.03
-0.25	1.49	2.40

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	10.2	1.01
-3	9.45	1.02
-2.75	6.85	1.04
-2.5	5.30	1.09
-2.25	4.95	1.11
-2	4.60	1.13
-1.75	3.48	1.25
0	1.31	3.08
+0.25	1.24	3.61
+0.5	1.28	3.70
+0.75	1.09	5.25
+1	1.02	8.10
+1.25	1.03	7.30
+1.5	1.01	9.00

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.01	7.29
7.5	1.13	4.34
8.5	1.31	2.98
9.5	1.63	2.13
10.5	1.90	1.81
11.5	2.47	1.44
12.5	3.33	1.24
13.5	4.86	1.10
14.5	7.32	1.01

24 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6.75	1.02	7.01
7	1.02	6.74
7.25	1.08	5.21
7.75	1.15	4.13
8	1.17	3.92
8.25	1.25	3.31
8.75	1.36	2.77
9	1.40	2.62
9.25	1.50	2.36
9.75	1.67	2.07
10	1.87	1.86
10.25	1.86	1.84
10.75	2.09	1.66
11	2.26	1.56
11.25	2.38	1.49
11.75	2.74	1.37
12	3.08	1.29
12.25	3.22	1.26
12.75	3.83	1.18
13	4.50	1.12
13.25	4.68	1.11
13.75	5.70	1.06
14	7.02	1.02
14.25	7.10	1.01

Latest Liga de Expansión MX results

9 Nov	Piratas 1-1 Cancún
8 Nov	CA La Paz 3-3 Tlaxcala
8 Nov	Monarcas 2-1 Venados FC
6 Nov	Cancún 1-1 Piratas
5 Nov	Tlaxcala 0-1 CA La Paz
4 Nov	Venados FC 1-2 Monarcas