Sagan Tosu vs Kawasaki Frontale• J-League Cup, Japan

2.0:1.010:00Today · Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu2.5:0.0

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

15.00BFRX4.00DAF21.76PINMargin at best1.8%Books9Markets79Rating49 · 52 levelExp. goals L52.8

Price board · 1X2captured 28 Oct 00:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	4.59	3.88	1.76	4.4%
Dafabet	4.60	4.00	1.72	4.9%
Betano	4.30	3.80	1.72	7.7%
1xBet	4.44	3.82	1.69	7.9%
Marathonbet	4.45	3.82	1.67	8.5%
Bet365	4.33	3.80	1.67	9.3%
BetVictor	4.33	3.70	1.67	10.0%
Betfair	5.00	3.70	1.57	10.7%
William Hill	4.00	3.40	1.70	13.2%
Best of all books	5.00	4.00	1.76	1.8%
Average	4.45	3.77	1.69	8.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Sagan TosuKawasaki Frontale

Last 1012Form pts · last 5122.0Goals for · last 52.51.0Goals against · last 50.055Attack rating450Defence rating10060Form rating4029H2H rating710Goals model10049Overall rating52

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 27 Oct 18:31 UTC

Sagan Tosu

5W 0D 5L · goals 11:12 · per match 1.1 for, 1.2 against

25 Oct	H	Vanraure Hachinohe	2-0	W
21 Oct	A	Albirex Niigata	1-2	L
17 Oct	H	Omiya Ardija	2-1	W
14 Oct	H	Avispa Fukuoka	2-1	W
10 Oct	H	Fujieda MYFC	1-0	W
4 Oct	A	Blaublitz Akita	0-1	L
29 Sep	H	Tokyo Verdy	2-1	W
26 Sep	A	Montedio Yamagata	0-2	L
23 Sep	A	Vissel Kobe	0-1	L
19 Sep	H	Iwaki	1-3	L

Kawasaki Frontale

8W 1D 1L · goals 23:10 · per match 2.3 for, 1.0 against

25 Oct	H	Fagiano Okayama	2-1	W
21 Oct	H	Vissel Kobe	2-1	W
17 Oct	A	Cerezo Osaka	4-2	W
14 Oct	A	Jubilo Iwata	4-0	W
11 Oct	H	Nagoya Grampus	1-2	L
7 Oct	H	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2-0	W
29 Sep	A	Roasso Kumamoto	1-0	W
19 Sep	H	Kashima	3-3	D
12 Sep	A	Mito Hollyhock	1-0	W
6 Sep	H	Shimizu S-pulse	3-1	W

Head to head

8Sagan Tosu wins

8draws

13Kawasaki Frontale wins

29 meetings · goals 31:37 · last 10: 2W 3D 5L for Sagan Tosu

13 Sep 2024J1 League	J1 League	Kawasaki Frontale3-2Sagan Tosu
15 May 2024J1 League	J1 League	Sagan Tosu5-2Kawasaki Frontale
3 Dec 2023J1 League	J1 League	Sagan Tosu0-1Kawasaki Frontale
7 May 2023J1 League	J1 League	Kawasaki Frontale1-0Sagan Tosu
31 Aug 2022J1 League	J1 League	Kawasaki Frontale4-0Sagan Tosu
21 May 2022J1 League	J1 League	Sagan Tosu0-0Kawasaki Frontale
7 Nov 2021J1 League	J1 League	Sagan Tosu3-1Kawasaki Frontale
7 Apr 2021J1 League	J1 League	Kawasaki Frontale1-0Sagan Tosu
12 Dec 2020J1 League	J1 League	Sagan Tosu1-1Kawasaki Frontale
22 Feb 2020J1 League	J1 League	Kawasaki Frontale0-0Sagan Tosu

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg121%4.45X25%3.77255%1.69

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

14.33 → 4.45 +2.8%X3.76 → 3.77 +0.3%21.69 → 1.69 0.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.81	2.03	4.5%
Bet365	1.73	2.08	5.9%
Betano	1.75	2.00	7.1%
1xBet	1.75	1.99	7.4%
Marathonbet	1.75	1.99	7.4%
Betfair	1.73	2.00	7.8%
BetVictor	1.73	1.95	9.1%
Best of all books	1.81	2.08	3.3%
Average	1.75	2.01	7.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.73	2.05	6.6%
Bet365	1.73	2.00	7.8%
1xBet	1.71	2.02	8.0%
Betano	1.72	2.00	8.1%
Marathonbet	1.71	1.99	8.7%
BetVictor	1.70	2.00	8.8%
William Hill	1.70	2.00	8.8%
Best of all books	1.73	2.05	6.6%
Average	1.71	2.01	8.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Sagan Tosu 10%Draw 45%Kawasaki Frontale 45%

The statistical model rates Sagan Tosu at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Kawasaki Frontale at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 4.45 | 3.77 | 1.69, which imply roughly 26.5% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Sagan Tosu averaged 2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Kawasaki Frontale averaged 2.5 scored and 0 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Kawasaki Frontale.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
4.45	3.77	1.69

Double chance

1X	X2	12
2.09	1.18	1.23

Draw no bet

1	2
3.43	1.27

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.71	2.01

1st half

1	X	2
4.82	2.29	2.22

2nd half

1	X	2
4.34	2.59	2.02

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	7.74	14.9	22.0
HT X	10.0	5.86	4.53
HT 2	40.2	14.4	2.50

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.59	13.4	1.54

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	10.9
1.5	1.22	3.86
2.5	1.75	2.01
3.5	2.85	1.37
4.5	5.46	1.12
5.5	9.88	1.03
6.5	18.2	1.01
7.5	50.5	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	–	9.30
1	1.02	8.45
1.25	1.09	5.30
1.75	1.25	3.36
2	1.31	2.94
2.25	1.56	2.31
2.75	1.94	1.78
3	2.26	1.57
3.25	2.57	1.44
3.75	3.43	1.23
4	4.65	1.12
4.25	5.01	1.11
4.75	6.95	1.04
5	8.35	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.25	2.47	1.47
+0.5	2.08	1.71
+0.75	1.84	1.88
+1	1.60	2.25
+1.25	1.44	2.59
+1.5	1.35	2.91

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	9.13	1.02
-1	7.80	1.03
-0.75	5.65	1.08
-0.25	3.82	1.21
0	3.29	1.28
+1.75	1.24	3.61
+2	1.11	4.95
+2.25	1.09	5.40
+2.5	1.09	5.70
+2.75	1.02	7.70
+3	1.01	10.5
+3.5	1.03	10.0

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.11	4.22
7.5	1.23	3.25
8.5	1.47	2.44
9.5	1.82	1.91
10.5	2.28	1.54
11.5	2.97	1.30
12.5	3.62	1.16
13.5	4.67	1.08

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.05	5.52
7	1.13	3.97
8	1.28	2.80
8.75	1.51	2.32
9	1.61	2.18
9.25	1.72	2.04
9.75	1.90	1.78
10	2.05	1.69
10.25	2.16	1.57
10.75	2.49	1.42
11	2.65	1.36
12	3.40	1.19
13	4.50	1.09
14	5.65	1.04

Next J-League Cup matches

28 Oct	Mito Hollyhock – Cerezo Osaka
28 Oct	Nagoya Grampus – Urawa
28 Oct	Yokohama F. Marinos – Sanfrecce Hiroshima

All J-League Cup fixtures and the table

Latest J-League Cup results

14 Oct	Mito Hollyhock 1-0 FC Tokyo
14 Oct	Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
14 Oct	Sagan Tosu 2-1 Avispa Fukuoka
14 Oct	Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 Shimizu S-pulse
14 Oct	Gainare Tottori 2-3 Cerezo Osaka
14 Oct	Nagoya Grampus 3-3 Fagiano Okayama