Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka• J-League Cup, Japan

2.0:1.02-1FTToday · Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu2.0:1.0

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.33PINX3.45DAF22.19DAFMargin at best4.7%Books10Markets63Rating45 · 55Exp. goals L53.0

Price board · 1X2captured 14 Oct 04:32 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	3.25	3.45	2.19	5.4%
Pinnacle	3.40	3.20	2.18	6.5%
1xBet	3.22	3.22	2.18	8.0%
Marathonbet	3.20	3.22	2.16	8.6%
BetVictor	3.13	3.20	2.15	9.7%
Betfair	3.10	3.25	2.10	10.6%
Betano	3.05	3.25	2.12	10.7%
Bet365	3.00	3.40	2.05	11.5%
William Hill	3.10	2.90	2.10	14.4%
SBO	2.84	2.90	2.11	17.1%
Best of all books	3.40	3.45	2.19	4.1%
Average	3.13	3.20	2.13	10.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Sagan TosuAvispa Fukuoka

Last 106Form pts · last 562.0Goals for · last 52.01.0Goals against · last 51.067Attack rating3333Defence rating6767Form rating3325H2H rating7559Goals model4145Overall rating55

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 14 Oct 08:40 UTC

Sagan Tosu

4W 1D 5L · goals 10:12 · per match 1.0 for, 1.2 against

10 Oct	H	Fujieda MYFC	1-0	W
4 Oct	A	Blaublitz Akita	0-1	L
29 Sep	H	Tokyo Verdy	2-1	W
26 Sep	A	Montedio Yamagata	0-2	L
23 Sep	A	Vissel Kobe	0-1	L
19 Sep	H	Iwaki	1-3	L
12 Sep	A	Imabari	0-1	L
5 Sep	H	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2-0	W
2 Sep	A	Nara Club	2-1	W
29 Aug	A	Yokohama FC	2-2	D

Avispa Fukuoka

2W 2D 6L · goals 10:14 · per match 1.0 for, 1.4 against

10 Oct	H	Fagiano Okayama	2-1	W
7 Oct	H	Yokohama FC	0-1	L
29 Sep	A	Osaka	2-1	W
19 Sep	H	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0-1	L
12 Sep	A	Shimizu S-pulse	0-1	L
5 Sep	H	Mito Hollyhock	1-1	D
2 Sep	H	Urawa	2-3	L
29 Aug	A	Kyoto Sanga	1-2	L
26 Aug	H	Verspah Oita	0-0	D
22 Aug	A	Kashima	2-3	L

Head to head

3Sagan Tosu wins

6draws

5Avispa Fukuoka wins

14 meetings · goals 9:16 · last 10: 1W 4D 5L for Sagan Tosu

28 Sep 2024J1 League	J1 League	Sagan Tosu0-0Avispa Fukuoka
16 Jun 2024J1 League	J1 League	Avispa Fukuoka2-0Sagan Tosu
6 Aug 2023J1 League	J1 League	Sagan Tosu0-1Avispa Fukuoka
14 May 2023J1 League	J1 League	Avispa Fukuoka0-0Sagan Tosu
26 Aug 2022J1 League	J1 League	Sagan Tosu1-1Avispa Fukuoka
1 Apr 2022J1 League	J1 League	Avispa Fukuoka0-0Sagan Tosu
25 Sep 2021J1 League	J1 League	Avispa Fukuoka3-0Sagan Tosu
7 Jul 2021Emperor Cup	Emperor Cup	Sagan Tosu1-0Avispa Fukuoka
19 May 2021J-League Cup	J-League Cup	Avispa Fukuoka4-1Sagan Tosu
21 Apr 2021J-League Cup	J-League Cup	Sagan Tosu0-1Avispa Fukuoka

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg131%2.98X29%3.10240%2.27

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.08 → 3.17 +2.9%X3.23 → 3.23 0.0%22.17 → 2.13 -1.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.06	1.76	5.4%
Bet365	2.08	1.73	5.9%
SBO	2.07	1.71	6.8%
1xBet	1.99	1.75	7.4%
Marathonbet	1.99	1.75	7.4%
Betfair	2.00	1.73	7.8%
BetVictor	1.97	1.72	8.9%
Betano	1.98	1.67	10.4%
Best of all books	2.08	1.76	4.9%
Average	2.02	1.73	7.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.87	1.87	7.0%
BetVictor	1.78	1.93	8.0%
1xBet	1.77	1.94	8.0%
Marathonbet	1.77	1.92	8.6%
Bet365	1.83	1.83	9.3%
William Hill	1.75	1.91	9.5%
Best of all books	1.87	1.94	5.0%
Average	1.79	1.90	8.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Sagan Tosu 35%Draw 35%Avispa Fukuoka 30%

The statistical model rated Sagan Tosu at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Avispa Fukuoka at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.98 | 3.10 | 2.27, which imply roughly 33.6% for a Sagan Tosu win versus the model's 35%.

Over their last five matches, Sagan Tosu averaged 2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Avispa Fukuoka averaged 2 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Sagan Tosu or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.13	3.20	2.13

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.62	1.30	1.28

Draw no bet

1	2
2.25	1.56

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.80	1.90

1st half

1	X	2
3.82	2.05	2.76

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.28	9.00	1.80

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	8.90
1.5	1.31	3.19
2.5	2.02	1.73
3.5	3.57	1.25
4.5	7.34	1.06
5.5	15.3	1.02
6.5	34.0	–

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.02	7.80
1	1.03	7.20
1.25	1.16	4.14
1.75	1.39	2.73
2	1.50	2.38
2.25	1.77	1.97
2.75	2.27	1.55
3	2.71	1.36
3.25	3.05	1.28
3.75	4.25	1.15
4	5.90	1.07
4.25	6.25	1.06

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	3.23	1.34
-0.25	2.72	1.41
0	2.33	1.56
+0.25	1.88	1.85
+0.5	1.67	2.10
+0.75	1.47	2.49

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	13.0	1.01
-1.75	8.90	1.01
-1.5	6.88	1.06
-1.25	6.47	1.07
-1	5.93	1.09
-0.75	4.00	1.20
+1	1.30	3.21
+1.25	1.23	3.68
+1.5	1.19	4.10
+1.75	1.11	5.40
+2	1.02	8.10
+2.25	1.03	7.50
+2.5	1.02	9.10

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.04	7.10
6.5	1.14	4.50
7.5	1.33	2.92
8.5	1.65	2.12
9.5	2.01	1.73
10.5	2.58	1.43
11.5	3.55	1.23
12.5	4.50	1.14
13.5	6.30	1.06

8 more lines

Line	Over	Under
8.25	1.46	2.47
8.75	1.62	2.11
9	1.88	1.90
9.25	1.85	1.85
9.75	2.10	1.64
10	2.28	1.58
10.25	2.41	1.48
10.75	2.56	1.40