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Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol• Primera División, Uruguay

#61.4:1.421:30Today · Estadio Belvedere, Montevideo1.4:0.8#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.31PINX3.26PIN22.25PINMargin at best5.3%Books6Markets77Rating39 · 61Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Oct 20:19 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle3.283.252.294.9%
BetVictor3.133.202.257.6%
William Hill3.203.002.2010.0%
1xBet3.183.082.1410.6%
Marathonbet3.103.082.1211.9%
Bet3652.903.202.1512.2%
Best of all books3.283.252.294.9%
Average3.133.132.199.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Liverpool MontevideoPenarol
Last 10#6Table position#11.56Points per game1.9711Form pts · last 591.4Goals for · last 51.41.4Goals against · last 50.850Attack rating5036Defence rating6442Form rating5829H2H rating7130Goals model7039Overall rating61

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 07:32 UTC

Liverpool Montevideo

5W 3D 2L · goals 14:9 · per match 1.4 for, 0.9 against

9 OctADeportivo Maldonado1-1D
3 OctHProgreso3-2W
27 SepACentral Espanol2-1W
23 SepHColón3-0W
20 SepHRacing Montevideo0-0D
14 SepAAtletico Torque1-3L
6 SepHBoston River1-0W
2 SepHBoston River0-1L
30 AugACerro Largo1-1D
27 AugAFenix2-0W

Penarol

5W 4D 1L · goals 17:9 · per match 1.7 for, 0.9 against

10 OctHProgreso1-1D
4 OctARacing Montevideo1-0W
30 SepAAtletico Torque1-1D
26 SepHBoston River2-1W
24 SepADanubio1-1D
19 SepACerro2-1W
13 SepHAlbion FC3-1W
5 SepADanubio4-0W
2 SepAAtenas2-2D
30 AugHClub Nacional0-1L

Head to head

10Liverpool Montevideo wins
7draws
19Penarol wins

36 meetings · goals 37:51 · last 10: 3W 2D 5L for Liverpool Montevideo

16 May 2026Primera DivisiónPrimera DivisiónPenarol2-1Liverpool Montevideo
13 Apr 2026Primera DivisiónPrimera DivisiónPenarol0-2Liverpool Montevideo
16 Nov 2025Primera División - ClausuraPrimera División - ClausuraLiverpool Montevideo1-2Penarol
13 Sep 2025Primera División - ClausuraPrimera División - ClausuraLiverpool Montevideo2-2Penarol
10 Sep 2025Copa UruguayCopa UruguayPenarol2-1Liverpool Montevideo
19 Jun 2025Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - AperturaLiverpool Montevideo3-2Penarol
20 Mar 2025Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - AperturaPenarol0-3Liverpool Montevideo
9 Nov 2024Primera División - ClausuraPrimera División - ClausuraPenarol2-0Liverpool Montevideo
3 May 2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - AperturaLiverpool Montevideo2-2Penarol
12 Feb 2024Copa UruguayCopa UruguayPenarol3-1Liverpool Montevideo

Primera División tablePrimera: Tabla Anualupdated 18 Oct 20:10 UTC

In the Primera División table, Liverpool Montevideo sit 6th with 50 points from 32 games, while Penarol are 1st with 63 points from 32.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Penarol32197651:26+2563
2Deportivo Maldonado32178750:28+2259
3Atletico Torque331761054:39+1557
4Racing Montevideo331511739:27+1256
5Club Nacional321741148:38+1055
6Liverpool Montevideo321311843:31+1250
7Wanderers331481141:42-150
8Albion FC331271444:43+143
9Juventud3310101337:41-440
10Central Espanol321081432:43-1138
11Boston River331071633:43-1037
12Cerro331071627:48-2137
13Defensor Sporting338111430:40-1035
14Cerro Largo338101530:38-834
15Progreso33951930:47-1732
16Danubio325141326:41-1529

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg129%3.17X29%3.11242%2.16

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

15 Oct 00:0118 Oct 06:501 3.17X 3.112 2.16
13.27 → 3.17 -3.1%X3.06 → 3.11 +1.6%22.09 → 2.16 +3.3%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle2.191.694.8%
Bet3652.151.676.4%
1xBet2.081.649.1%
BetVictor2.081.649.1%
Marathonbet2.081.649.1%
Best of all books2.191.694.8%
Average2.121.667.6%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
William Hill1.831.917.0%
Bet3651.911.807.9%
1xBet1.831.868.4%
BetVictor1.851.838.7%
Marathonbet1.831.839.3%
Best of all books1.911.914.7%
Average1.851.858.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Liverpool Montevideo 10%Draw 45%Penarol 45%

The statistical model rates Liverpool Montevideo at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Penarol at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.17 | 3.11 | 2.16, which imply roughly 32.2% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera División table: Liverpool Montevideo are 6th (50 pts, 43-31 goals), Penarol 1st (63 pts, 51-26).

Over their last five matches, Liverpool Montevideo averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Penarol averaged 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Penarol.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Confirmed Lineups

Liverpool Montevideo

Coach: J. Fossati

Goalkeeper

  • 1M. Bernatene

Defence

  • 23E. Castillo
  • 18A. Cayetano
  • 24R. Haller
  • 3S. Strasorier

Midfield

  • 5N. Garayalde
  • 34K. Lewis

Attack

  • 16Lucas Acosta Moreno
  • 10R. Degregorio
  • 9R. Machado
  • 7F. Martínez
Substitutes (10)
  • 19R. Bentancourt
  • 26T. Brizuela
  • 25M. Campaña
  • 15S. Laquidaín
  • 6S. Milano
  • 4F. Perdomo
  • 33Joaquin Pintos
  • 27D. Romero
  • 22D. Zabala
  • 8M. Mir

Penarol

Coach: D. Aguirre

Goalkeeper

  • 29W. Aguerre

Defence

  • 5E. Remedi
  • 2G. Pezzella
  • 3M. Lemos
  • 34N. Herrera

Midfield

  • 21J. Trindade
  • 13E. Darias

Attack

  • 32L. Umpiérrez
  • 11C. Jaime
  • 7J. Cabrera
  • 19M. Arezo
Substitutes (10)
  • 28I. Alegre
  • 77L. Angulo
  • 1S. Britos
  • 26Thiago Nahuel Espinosa Dovat
  • 8N. Fernández
  • 80F. González
  • 99A. Hernández
  • 27L. Hernández
  • 15M. Olivera
  • 33J. Rodríguez

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
3.133.142.19

Double chance

1XX212
1.581.301.30

Draw no bet

12
2.231.58

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.851.85

1st half

1X2
3.882.042.90

2nd half

1X2
3.532.282.57

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 15.3715.030.0
HT X7.074.525.20
HT 238.715.03.45

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.258.701.81

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.038.32
1.51.342.96
2.52.121.66
3.53.921.21
4.58.281.04
5.519.01.02
6.541.0–
12 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.037.70
11.046.90
1.251.183.93
1.751.442.57
21.582.21
2.251.851.85
2.752.431.49
32.971.30
3.253.351.25
3.754.801.12
46.901.04
4.257.301.03

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.53.181.35
-0.252.691.41
02.271.57
+0.251.831.89
+0.51.642.20
+0.751.442.61
10 more lines
LineHomeAway
-1.57.201.05
-1.256.771.06
-16.201.08
-0.754.041.20
+11.263.51
+1.251.213.96
+1.51.164.32
+1.751.095.75
+2.251.018.85
+2.51.029.10

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
5.51.066.10
6.51.193.79
7.51.422.59
8.51.781.96
9.52.261.54
10.53.031.29
11.54.401.14
12.56.101.07
22 more lines
LineOverUnder
51.035.90
5.751.065.59
61.075.31
6.251.144.17
6.751.243.32
71.283.12
7.251.382.70
7.751.462.41
81.592.24
8.251.662.09
8.751.851.81
92.071.69
9.252.111.60
9.752.431.44
102.721.40
10.253.071.29
10.753.681.19
114.381.13
11.254.581.11
11.755.661.06
127.101.01
135.921.03

Latest Primera División results

18 OctDanubio 1-0 Central Espanol
18 OctAlbion FC 2-1 Atletico Torque
17 OctBoston River 1-0 Defensor Sporting
17 OctRacing Montevideo 3-0 Wanderers
17 OctProgreso 2-0 Juventud
16 OctCerro 1-1 Cerro Largo