Cerro vs Cerro Largo• Primera División, Uruguay

#111.4:1.422:00Today · Monumental Luis Tróccoli, Montevideo0.2:1.4#14

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.27PINX3.10BVC23.52PINMargin at best4.7%Books6Markets76Rating60 · 40Exp. goals L52.2

Price board · 1X2captured 16 Oct 16:34 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.27	3.10	3.52	4.7%
BetVictor	2.20	3.10	3.30	8.0%
1xBet	2.20	2.94	3.21	10.6%
Bet365	2.15	3.00	3.20	11.1%
Marathonbet	2.18	2.94	3.12	11.9%
William Hill	2.20	2.90	–	–
Best of all books	2.27	3.10	3.52	4.7%
Average	2.20	3.00	3.27	9.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

CerroCerro Largo

Last 10#11Table position#141.13Points per game1.034Form pts · last 531.4Goals for · last 50.21.4Goals against · last 51.488Attack rating1350Defence rating5088Form rating1338H2H rating6259Goals model4160Overall rating40

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 20:20 UTC

Cerro

3W 3D 4L · goals 11:13 · per match 1.1 for, 1.3 against

10 Oct	A	Defensor Sporting	3-2	W
4 Oct	H	Wanderers	0-2	L
27 Sep	A	Juventud	0-0	D
23 Sep	H	Deportivo Maldonado	1-2	L
19 Sep	H	Penarol	1-2	L
13 Sep	A	Progreso	3-1	W
10 Sep	H	Cerrito	0-2	L
6 Sep	H	Racing Montevideo	1-0	W
1 Sep	A	Wanderers	1-1	D
29 Aug	A	Boston River	1-1	D

Cerro Largo

1W 3D 6L · goals 6:13 · per match 0.6 for, 1.3 against

11 Oct	H	Albion FC	0-1	L
4 Oct	A	Danubio	1-2	L
30 Sep	H	Rentistas	1-0	W
26 Sep	H	Club Nacional	0-2	L
19 Sep	A	Deportivo Maldonado	0-2	L
12 Sep	H	Central Espanol	0-0	D
9 Sep	H	Defensor Sporting	1-1	D
4 Sep	A	Atletico Torque	1-2	L
30 Aug	H	Liverpool Montevideo	1-1	D
26 Aug	A	Plaza Colonia	1-2	L

Head to head

3Cerro wins

6draws

12Cerro Largo wins

21 meetings · goals 14:30 · last 10: 2W 4D 4L for Cerro

29 May 2026Primera División	Primera División	Cerro Largo2-0Cerro
10 Apr 2026Primera División	Primera División	Cerro Largo1-1Cerro
7 Sep 2025Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Cerro0-1Cerro Largo
19 Jun 2025Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Cerro2-1Cerro Largo
17 Mar 2025Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Cerro Largo0-0Cerro
28 Sep 2024Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Cerro Largo3-1Cerro
14 Jul 2024Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Cerro0-1Cerro Largo
24 Mar 2024Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Cerro1-1Cerro Largo
30 Nov 2023Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Cerro Largo0-0Cerro
2 Jul 2023Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Cerro Largo0-1Cerro

Primera División tablePrimera: Tabla Anualupdated 16 Oct 00:31 UTC

In the Primera División table, Cerro sit 11th with 36 points from 32 games, while Cerro Largo are 14th with 33 points from 32.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Penarol	32	19	7	6	51:26	+25	63
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	17	8	7	50:28	+22	59
3	Atletico Torque	32	17	6	9	53:37	+16	57
4	Club Nacional	32	17	4	11	48:38	+10	55
5	Racing Montevideo	32	14	11	7	36:27	+9	53
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	13	11	8	43:31	+12	50
7	Wanderers	32	14	8	10	41:39	+2	50
8	Albion FC	32	11	7	14	42:42	0	40
9	Juventud	32	10	10	12	37:39	-2	40
10	Central Espanol	32	10	8	14	32:43	-11	38
11	Cerro	32	10	6	16	26:47	-21	36
12	Defensor Sporting	32	8	11	13	30:39	-9	35
13	Boston River	32	9	7	16	32:43	-11	34
14	Cerro Largo	32	8	9	15	29:37	-8	33
15	Danubio	32	5	14	13	26:41	-15	29
16	Progreso	32	8	5	19	28:47	-19	29

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg142%2.20X30%3.00228%3.27

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.43 → 2.20 -9.5%X2.98 → 3.00 +0.7%22.91 → 3.27 +12.4%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.48	1.55	4.8%
Bet365	2.40	1.53	7.0%
BetVictor	2.27	1.54	9.0%
1xBet	2.33	1.51	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.33	1.51	9.1%
Best of all books	2.48	1.55	4.8%
Average	2.36	1.53	7.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	2.10	1.67	7.5%
William Hill	1.91	1.80	7.9%
1xBet	1.98	1.72	8.6%
BetVictor	2.00	1.70	8.8%
Marathonbet	1.98	1.70	9.3%
Best of all books	2.10	1.80	3.2%
Average	1.99	1.72	8.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Cerro 45%Draw 45%Cerro Largo 10%

The statistical model rates Cerro at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Cerro Largo at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.27, which imply roughly 45.5% for a Cerro win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera División table: Cerro are 11th (36 pts, 26-47 goals), Cerro Largo 14th (33 pts, 29-37).

Over their last five matches, Cerro averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Cerro Largo averaged 0.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Cerro or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.20	3.00	3.27

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.29	1.54	1.32

Draw no bet

1	2
1.55	2.28

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.99	1.72

1st half

1	X	2
2.98	1.95	4.10

2nd half

1	X	2
2.69	2.18	3.52

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.69	15.1	40.0
HT X	5.20	4.14	6.73
HT 2	33.0	15.3	5.27

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.87	7.05	2.27

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.06	7.37
1.5	1.43	2.59
2.5	2.36	1.53
3.5	4.61	1.16
4.5	9.90	1.03
5.5	24.5	1.01
6.5	50.5	–

11 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.05	6.40
1	1.08	5.65
1.25	1.25	3.35
1.75	1.56	2.28
2	1.76	1.94
2.25	2.06	1.67
2.75	2.75	1.36
3	3.68	1.20
3.25	4.11	1.16
3.75	5.85	1.07
4	8.80	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.64	1.43
-0.5	2.19	1.65
-0.25	1.87	1.85
0	1.55	2.31
+0.25	1.39	2.77
+0.5	1.32	3.40

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	9.80	1.01
-2	8.70	1.02
-1.75	6.23	1.08
-1.5	4.63	1.15
-1.25	4.19	1.19
-1	3.69	1.23
+0.75	1.19	4.24
+1	1.07	6.63
+1.25	1.06	6.93
+1.5	1.05	7.53
+1.75	1.01	8.90

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
4.5	1.03	5.87
5.5	1.02	6.87
6.5	1.17	3.97
7.5	1.38	2.67
8.5	1.74	1.96
9.5	2.15	1.61
10.5	2.90	1.32
11.5	4.11	1.15
12.5	6.29	1.04

22 more lines

Line	Over	Under
5	1.04	5.72
5.75	1.03	6.58
6	1.04	6.28
6.25	1.10	4.81
6.75	1.18	3.78
7	1.21	3.57
7.25	1.30	3.02
7.75	1.43	2.53
8	1.52	2.36
8.25	1.61	2.16
8.75	1.80	1.90
9	1.92	1.81
9.25	2.04	1.69
9.75	2.33	1.52
10	2.56	1.44
10.25	2.73	1.37
10.75	3.22	1.26
11	3.74	1.19
11.25	3.92	1.17
11.75	4.78	1.10
12	5.85	1.05
12.25	6.07	1.04