Police vs Kitara• Premier League, Uganda

#61.2:2.21-1FTToday · Kiira Road Police Arena1.2:0.6#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.03PINX3.00BFR22.55B365Margin at best5.6%Books9Markets39Rating41 · 59Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 3 Nov 08:48 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.90	2.85	2.47	10.1%
Betfair	2.80	3.00	2.40	10.7%
1xBet	2.99	2.85	2.36	10.9%
Betano	2.82	2.87	2.45	11.1%
Pinnacle	3.03	2.78	2.34	11.7%
Bet365	2.80	2.90	2.40	11.9%
Marathonbet	2.91	2.85	2.34	12.2%
William Hill	3.00	2.62	2.38	13.5%
BetVictor	2.75	2.63	2.20	19.8%
Best of all books	3.03	3.00	2.47	6.8%
Average	2.89	2.82	2.37	12.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PoliceKitara

Last 10#6Table position#101.56Points per game2.207Form pts · last 591.2Goals for · last 51.22.2Goals against · last 50.650Attack rating5021Defence rating7939Form rating6150H2H rating5028Goals model7241Overall rating59

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 3 Nov 03:40 UTC

Police

4W 3D 3L · goals 11:14 · per match 1.1 for, 1.4 against

30 Oct	A	Kataka	2-1	W
27 Oct	H	Kigezi HomeBoyz	3-1	W
23 Oct	A	Vipers	0-0	D
14 Oct	H	SC Villa	1-6	L
9 Oct	A	Entebbe UPPC	0-3	L
16 Sep	A	Lugazi	2-0	W
10 Sep	H	UPDF	0-0	D
2 Sep	A	Blacks Power	0-1	L
29 Aug	H	Mbarara City	1-0	W
23 May	A	Kitara	2-2	D

Kitara

5W 3D 2L · goals 13:12 · per match 1.3 for, 1.2 against

31 Oct	A	UPDF	1-0	W
25 Oct	A	Al Ahly	0-4	L
17 Oct	H	Al Ahly	1-2	L
10 Oct	A	Kataka	2-1	W
7 Oct	H	Kigezi HomeBoyz	1-0	W
17 Sep	A	Express	1-1	D
12 Sep	H	Mogadishu City	2-0	W
6 Sep	A	Mogadishu City	2-1	W
29 Aug	A	SC Villa	1-1	D
23 May	H	Police	2-2	D

Head to head

3Police wins

1draws

2Kitara wins

6 meetings · goals 13:6 · last 6: 3W 1D 2L for Police

23 May 2026Premier League	Premier League	Kitara2-2Police
27 Nov 2025Premier League	Premier League	Police1-2Kitara
27 Mar 2025Premier League	Premier League	Police0-1Kitara
3 Oct 2024Premier League	Premier League	Kitara0-1Police
20 Apr 2021Premier League	Premier League	Police4-1Kitara
12 Dec 2020Premier League	Premier League	Kitara0-5Police

Premier League tableRegular Seasonupdated 3 Nov 14:50 UTC

In the Premier League table, Police sit 6th with 14 points from 9 games, while Kitara are 10th with 11 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	SC Villa	9	6	3	0	18:4	+14	21
2	NEC	9	6	2	1	18:5	+13	20
3	BUL	8	6	2	0	16:5	+11	20
4	Entebbe UPPC	9	4	4	1	8:3	+5	16
5	KCCA	8	5	1	2	9:6	+3	16
6	Police	9	4	2	3	9:12	-3	14
7	Blacks Power	9	4	1	4	9:12	-3	13
8	Vipers	8	3	2	3	13:4	+9	11
9	Maroons	8	3	2	3	13:8	+5	11
10	Kitara	5	3	2	0	6:3	+3	11
11	URA	8	3	1	4	7:10	-3	10
12	Express	9	1	5	3	7:9	-2	8
13	UPDF	8	2	2	4	4:7	-3	8
14	Mbarara City	8	2	2	4	4:8	-4	8
15	Lugazi	9	2	2	5	6:13	-7	8
16	Ntugasaze	8	1	1	6	5:19	-14	4
17	Kataka	9	0	3	6	7:21	-14	3
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	7	0	1	6	2:12	-10	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg131%2.89X32%2.81238%2.37

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.57 → 2.87 +11.7%X2.92 → 2.81 -3.8%22.55 → 2.39 -6.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.50	1.50	6.7%
Betfair	2.55	1.45	8.2%
1xBet	2.49	1.45	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.49	1.45	9.1%
Pinnacle	2.51	1.44	9.3%
Betano	2.37	1.47	10.2%
BetVictor	2.10	1.36	21.1%
Best of all books	2.55	1.50	5.9%
Average	2.43	1.45	10.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.10	1.65	8.2%
William Hill	2.05	1.67	8.7%
1xBet	2.04	1.66	9.3%
Marathonbet	2.04	1.64	10.0%
BetVictor	1.83	1.53	20.0%
Best of all books	2.10	1.67	7.5%
Average	2.01	1.63	11.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Police 10%Draw 45%Kitara 45%

The statistical model rated Police at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Kitara at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.89 | 2.81 | 2.37, which imply roughly 35.6% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Police are 6th (14 pts, 9-12 goals), Kitara 10th (11 pts, 6-3).

Over their last five matches, Police averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; Kitara averaged 1.2 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Kitara.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.89	2.82	2.37

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.47	1.31	1.31

Draw no bet

1	2
1.88	1.68

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.01	1.63

1st half

1	X	2
3.62	1.87	3.15

2nd half

1	X	2
3.38	2.11	2.83

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.85	14.8	35.4
HT X	6.28	4.09	5.50
HT 2	39.4	15.1	4.03

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.16	6.30	1.99

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	6.90
1.5	1.44	2.38
2.5	2.43	1.45
3.5	5.03	1.12
4.5	10.5	1.03
5.5	29.0	1.01

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.07	5.90
1	1.10	5.15
1.25	1.29	3.07
1.75	1.60	2.11
2	1.81	1.78
2.25	2.16	1.57
2.75	2.98	1.30
3	4.05	1.16
3.25	4.50	1.13
3.75	6.45	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.95	1.32
-0.25	2.49	1.43
0	2.00	1.65
+0.25	1.67	1.94
+0.5	1.53	2.31
+0.75	1.34	2.85

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	8.50	1.01
-1.5	7.20	1.03
-1.25	6.65	1.05
-1	6.00	1.06
-0.75	3.78	1.19
+1	1.17	4.10
+1.25	1.12	4.81
+1.5	1.09	5.35
+1.75	1.03	7.30

Latest Premier League results

3 Nov	BUL 2-1 SC Villa
3 Nov	NEC 1-0 UPDF
1 Nov	Ntugasaze 1-1 Express
30 Oct	Kataka 1-2 Police
28 Oct	Mbarara City 1-0 Vipers
28 Oct	KCCA 2-1 Lugazi