NEC vs UPDF• Premier League, Uganda

#21.8:0.61-0FTToday · MTN Omondi Stadium0.6:1.0#13

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.48B365X4.20DAF28.40DAFMargin at best3.3%Books9Markets55Rating70 · 30Exp. goals L52.0

Price board · 1X2captured 3 Nov 08:48 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.34	4.20	8.40	10.3%
Bet365	1.48	3.60	6.50	10.7%
1xBet	1.39	3.78	7.95	11.0%
Betano	1.44	3.80	6.50	11.1%
Betfair	1.40	4.00	6.50	11.8%
Pinnacle	1.44	3.83	6.07	12.0%
Marathonbet	1.38	3.80	7.40	12.3%
William Hill	1.40	3.75	6.50	13.5%
BetVictor	1.36	3.40	5.75	20.3%
Best of all books	1.48	4.20	8.40	3.3%
Average	1.40	3.80	6.84	12.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

NECUPDF

Last 10#2Table position#132.22Points per game1.0010Form pts · last 561.8Goals for · last 50.60.6Goals against · last 51.075Attack rating2563Defence rating3863Form rating3875H2H rating2579Goals model2170Overall rating30

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 3 Nov 03:40 UTC

NEC

6W 2D 2L · goals 18:7 · per match 1.8 for, 0.7 against

31 Oct	A	Blacks Power	1-0	W
27 Oct	H	Ntugasaze	5-1	W
21 Oct	A	BUL	1-2	L
14 Oct	A	Kigezi HomeBoyz	2-0	W
8 Oct	H	Express	0-0	D
15 Sep	H	URA	4-1	W
11 Sep	A	Mbarara City	0-0	D
1 Sep	H	Lugazi	3-1	W
29 Aug	A	KCCA	2-0	W
23 May	A	Calvary	0-2	L

UPDF

2W 3D 5L · goals 5:9 · per match 0.5 for, 0.9 against

31 Oct	H	Kitara	0-1	L
27 Oct	H	URA	0-1	L
18 Oct	H	BUL	0-2	L
15 Oct	A	Express	2-1	W
17 Sep	H	Maroons	1-0	W
10 Sep	A	Police	0-0	D
1 Sep	A	Entebbe UPPC	1-2	L
29 Aug	H	Kataka	0-0	D
23 May	A	SC Villa	1-2	L
19 May	H	Calvary	0-0	D

Head to head

3NEC wins

3draws

0UPDF wins

6 meetings · goals 6:2 · last 6: 3W 3D 0L for NEC

3 Mar 2026Premier League	Premier League	NEC1-0UPDF
16 Dec 2025Premier League	Premier League	UPDF0-0NEC
4 Apr 2025Premier League	Premier League	UPDF0-0NEC
24 Sep 2024Premier League	Premier League	NEC1-0UPDF
13 Feb 2024Premier League	Premier League	UPDF2-2NEC
20 Oct 2023Premier League	Premier League	NEC2-0UPDF

Premier League tableRegular Seasonupdated 3 Nov 14:50 UTC

In the Premier League table, NEC sit 2nd with 20 points from 9 games, while UPDF are 13th with 8 points from 8.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	SC Villa	9	6	3	0	18:4	+14	21
2	NEC	9	6	2	1	18:5	+13	20
3	BUL	8	6	2	0	16:5	+11	20
4	Entebbe UPPC	9	4	4	1	8:3	+5	16
5	KCCA	8	5	1	2	9:6	+3	16
6	Police	9	4	2	3	9:12	-3	14
7	Blacks Power	9	4	1	4	9:12	-3	13
8	Vipers	8	3	2	3	13:4	+9	11
9	Maroons	8	3	2	3	13:8	+5	11
10	Kitara	5	3	2	0	6:3	+3	11
11	URA	8	3	1	4	7:10	-3	10
12	Express	9	1	5	3	7:9	-2	8
13	UPDF	8	2	2	4	4:7	-3	8
14	Mbarara City	8	2	2	4	4:8	-4	8
15	Lugazi	9	2	2	5	6:13	-7	8
16	Ntugasaze	8	1	1	6	5:19	-14	4
17	Kataka	9	0	3	6	7:21	-14	3
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	7	0	1	6	2:12	-10	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg164%1.40X24%3.78213%6.98

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.35 → 1.40 +3.7%X3.98 → 3.78 -5.0%27.61 → 6.98 -8.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.95	1.85	5.3%
Betfair	1.95	1.75	8.4%
Pinnacle	1.98	1.72	8.6%
Marathonbet	1.95	1.73	9.1%
1xBet	1.96	1.72	9.2%
Betano	1.93	1.72	10.0%
BetVictor	1.78	1.57	19.9%
Best of all books	1.98	1.85	4.6%
Average	1.93	1.72	9.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.20	1.60	8.0%
1xBet	2.16	1.59	9.2%
William Hill	2.10	1.62	9.3%
Marathonbet	2.15	1.58	9.8%
BetVictor	1.91	1.47	20.4%
Best of all books	2.20	1.62	7.2%
Average	2.10	1.57	11.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

NEC 50%Draw 50%UPDF 0%

The statistical model rated NEC at 50% to win, the draw at 50% and UPDF at 0% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.40 | 3.78 | 6.98, which imply roughly 71.4% for a NEC win versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Premier League table: NEC are 2nd (20 pts, 18-5 goals), UPDF 13th (8 pts, 4-7).

Over their last five matches, NEC averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; UPDF averaged 0.6 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : NEC.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.40	3.80	6.84

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.06	2.52	1.18

Draw no bet

1	2
1.12	4.48

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.10	1.57

1st half

1	X	2
1.93	2.15	6.79

2nd half

1	X	2
1.77	2.52	6.38

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.10	17.9	67.0
HT X	3.83	5.40	13.8
HT 2	25.8	19.2	12.5

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.34	9.10	3.79

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	8.77
1.5	1.29	3.12
2.5	1.93	1.72
3.5	3.43	1.24
4.5	7.00	1.05
5.5	14.0	1.02

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.02	7.90
1	1.03	7.20
1.25	1.16	4.18
1.75	1.37	2.72
2	1.48	2.36
2.25	1.70	1.90
2.75	2.23	1.54
3	2.72	1.36
3.25	3.06	1.29
3.75	4.26	1.15
4	5.95	1.07
4.25	6.38	1.06

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.68	1.38
-1.5	2.17	1.60
-1.25	1.94	1.69
-1	1.70	1.93
-0.75	1.53	2.26
-0.5	1.43	2.54

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.25	8.65	1.01
-3	8.30	1.02
-2.75	5.55	1.08
-2.5	4.30	1.15
-2.25	3.91	1.18
-2	3.50	1.22
-0.25	1.25	3.29
0	1.08	5.70
+0.25	1.05	6.43

Latest Premier League results

3 Nov	BUL 2-1 SC Villa
3 Nov	Police 1-1 Kitara
1 Nov	Ntugasaze 1-1 Express
30 Oct	Kataka 1-2 Police
28 Oct	Mbarara City 1-0 Vipers
28 Oct	KCCA 2-1 Lugazi