Police vs 
SC Villa• Premier League, Uganda
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 14 Oct 09:13 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 3.65 | 3.10 | 1.99 | 9.9% |
| 1xBet | 3.72 | 2.94 | 1.99 | 11.1% |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.10 | 1.95 | 11.3% |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.05 | 2.00 | 11.4% |
| Pinnacle | 3.46 | 2.94 | 2.02 | 12.4% |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 2.80 | 2.00 | 13.5% |
| Best of all books | 3.72 | 3.10 | 2.02 | 8.6% |
| Average | 3.59 | 2.99 | 1.99 | 11.5% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 14 Oct 14:20 UTC
Police
3W 4D 3L · goals 8:8 · per match 0.8 for, 0.8 against
| 9 Oct | A | Entebbe UPPC | 0-3 | L |
| 16 Sep | A | Lugazi | 2-0 | W |
| 10 Sep | H | UPDF | 0-0 | D |
| 2 Sep | A | Blacks Power | 0-1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Mbarara City | 1-0 | W |
| 23 May | A | Kitara | 2-2 | D |
| 19 May | H | Entebbe UPPC | 1-1 | D |
| 12 May | H | Vipers | 0-0 | D |
| 6 May | A | Calvary | 0-1 | L |
| 29 Apr | H | UPDF | 2-0 | W |
SC Villa
4W 3D 3L · goals 11:7 · per match 1.1 for, 0.7 against
| 11 Oct | H | LMPS | 1-1 | D |
| 7 Oct | A | Kataka | 1-1 | D |
| 3 Oct | H | Members | 0-1 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | LDF | 0-1 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 3-0 | W |
| 9 Sep | H | Express | 2-0 | W |
| 6 Sep | H | LCS | 2-1 | W |
| 4 Sep | A | URA | 1-0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Kitara | 1-1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Mzamane | 0-1 | L |
Head to head
25 meetings · goals 24:31 · last 10: 1W 5D 4L for Police
| 10 Mar 2026Premier League | Premier League | Police1-0SC Villa |
| 24 Oct 2025Premier League | Premier League | SC Villa2-1Police |
| 11 May 2025Premier League | Premier League | Police1-3SC Villa |
| 13 Dec 2024Premier League | Premier League | SC Villa1-1Police |
| 2 May 2022Premier League | Premier League | Police0-0SC Villa |
| 29 Oct 2021Premier League | Premier League | SC Villa1-0Police |
| 29 Oct 2021Premier League | Premier League | SC Villa1-0Police |
| 19 May 2021Premier League | Premier League | Police1-1SC Villa |
| 6 Mar 2021Premier League | Premier League | SC Villa2-2Police |
| 3 Feb 2020Premier League | Premier League | Police2-2SC Villa |
Premier League tableRegular Seasonupdated 14 Oct 02:10 UTC
In the Premier League table, Police sit 10th with 7 points from 5 games, while SC Villa are 3rd with 11 points from 5.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11:3 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 | NEC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9:2 | +7 | 11 |
| 3 | SC Villa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8:2 | +6 | 11 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:2 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Blacks Power | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Kitara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Vipers | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:2 | +6 | 7 |
| 9 | Maroons | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9:7 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Police | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Lugazi | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4:9 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | UPDF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Express | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2:3 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:7 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:13 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3:8 | -5 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1:6 | -5 | 1 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.9% margin.
1X2 since open average price
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 1.53 | 7.4% |
| 1xBet | 2.87 | 1.34 | 9.5% |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 1.52 | 9.6% |
| Betano | 2.30 | 1.50 | 10.1% |
| Best of all books | 2.87 | 1.53 | 0.2% |
| Average | 2.46 | 1.47 | 8.6% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.95 | 1.75 | 8.4% |
| 1xBet | 2.39 | 1.48 | 9.4% |
| Best of all books | 2.39 | 1.75 | -1.0% |
| Average | 2.17 | 1.61 | 8.0% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Police at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and SC Villa at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.57 | 3.01 | 2.00, which imply roughly 33.2% for the draw versus the model's 45%.
Form context from the Premier League table: Police are 10th (7 pts, 3-4 goals), SC Villa 3rd (11 pts, 8-2).
Over their last five matches, Police averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; SC Villa averaged 1.6 scored and 0.4 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or SC Villa and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.59 | 2.99 | 1.99 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.66 | 1.22 | 1.31 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 2.54 | 1.44 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 2.17 | 1.62 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.28 | 1.95 | 2.69 |
2nd half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.07 | 2.11 | 2.50 |
HT/FT
| HT / FT | FT 1 | FT X | FT 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| HT 1 | 6.05 | 16.0 | 29.5 |
| HT X | 7.35 | 4.38 | 4.68 |
| HT 2 | 45.5 | 16.3 | 3.25 |
First team to score
| Home | No Goal | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | 6.50 | 1.73 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | 1.26 | 3.31 |
| 1.5 | 1.48 | 2.42 |
| 1.75 | 1.53 | 2.31 |
| 2 | 1.86 | 1.83 |
| 2.25 | 2.02 | 1.69 |
| 2.5 | 2.46 | 1.47 |
| 2.75 | 2.69 | 1.38 |
| 3 | 3.38 | 1.25 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 3.38 | 1.25 |
| -0.25 | 2.96 | 1.32 |
| 0 | 2.56 | 1.43 |
| +0.25 | 1.98 | 1.74 |
| +0.5 | 1.73 | 1.99 |
| +0.75 | 1.50 | 2.33 |
| +1 | 1.27 | 3.24 |