Sertanense vs Fátima• Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C, Portugal

#120.6:1.42-2FT25/101.4:1.6#11

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.85DAFX3.25DAF23.00B365Margin10.9%Books7Markets40Rating53 · 47 levelExp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 25 Oct 12:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.85	3.25	2.55	5.1%
Bet365	2.20	3.10	3.00	11.0%
Betano	2.72	3.05	2.40	11.2%
1xBet	2.67	3.04	2.39	12.2%
Marathonbet	2.67	3.04	2.39	12.2%
William Hill	2.70	2.80	2.45	13.6%
Pinnacle	2.70	3.00	2.24	15.0%
Best of all books	2.85	3.25	3.00	-0.8%
Average	2.64	3.04	2.49	10.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

SertanenseFátima

Last 10#12Table position#110.67Points per game0.833Form pts · last 570.6Goals for · last 51.41.4Goals against · last 51.630Attack rating7053Defence rating4743Form rating5764H2H rating3663Goals model3753Overall rating47

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 1 Nov 00:50 UTC

Sertanense

1W 4D 5L · goals 9:14 · per match 0.9 for, 1.4 against

25 Oct	H	Fátima	2-2	D
11 Oct	A	Os Marialvas	0-0	D
27 Sep	A	O Elvas	0-2	L
13 Sep	H	Atlético Malveira	1-1	D
30 Aug	A	Alcains	0-1	L
23 Aug	H	Mortágua	1-3	L
16 Aug	A	AD Nogueirense	1-1	D
13 Apr	A	Benfica Castelo Branco	0-1	L
6 Apr	H	Alcains	3-1	W
29 Mar	A	Os Marialvas	1-2	L

Fátima

5W 2D 3L · goals 21:13 · per match 2.1 for, 1.3 against

25 Oct	A	Sertanense	2-2	D
18 Oct	H	Academico Viseu	1-0	W
11 Oct	H	Nazarenos	1-3	L
20 Sep	H	Vinhais	4-1	W
13 Sep	H	Oliveira Hospital	0-1	L
6 Sep	A	Os Marialvas	0-3	L
29 Aug	H	Benfica Castelo Branco	3-1	W
23 Aug	H	Atlético Malveira	5-0	W
16 Aug	A	O Elvas	1-1	D
18 Apr	H	Benfica Castelo Branco	4-1	W

Head to head

2Sertanense wins

1draws

1Fátima wins

4 meetings · goals 4:2 · last 4: 2W 1D 1L for Sertanense

23 Feb 2025Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Fátima1-1Sertanense
27 Oct 2024Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Sertanense0-1Fátima
24 Feb 2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Sertanense1-0Fátima
5 Oct 2019Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Fátima0-2Sertanense

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C tableII Divisao: Group Cupdated 31 Oct 19:02 UTC

In the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table, Sertanense sit 12th with 4 points from 6 games, while Fátima are 11th with 5 points from 6.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Oliveira Hospital	6	4	1	1	10:6	+4	13
2	Mortágua	6	4	1	1	11:5	+6	13
3	O Elvas	6	4	1	1	10:5	+5	13
4	Os Marialvas	6	4	1	1	10:3	+7	13
5	UD da Serra	6	3	3	0	9:6	+3	12
6	Benfica Castelo Branco	6	3	0	3	9:12	-3	9
7	Atlético Malveira	6	2	2	2	8:9	-1	8
8	Naval 1893	6	2	1	3	6:6	0	7
9	AD Nogueirense	6	1	4	1	8:10	-2	7
10	FC Alverca II	6	2	0	4	10:7	+3	6
11	Fátima	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5
12	Sertanense	6	0	4	2	5:9	-4	4
13	Nazarenos	6	1	1	4	5:12	-7	4
14	Fazendense	6	0	1	5	7:17	-10	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg134%2.64X30%3.04236%2.49

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 10.9% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.25	1.62	6.2%
1xBet	2.18	1.58	9.2%
Marathonbet	2.18	1.58	9.2%
Betano	2.15	1.57	10.2%
Pinnacle	2.18	1.55	10.4%
Best of all books	2.25	1.62	6.2%
Average	2.19	1.58	9.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.95	1.75	8.4%
1xBet	1.87	1.80	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.87	1.77	10.0%
Best of all books	1.95	1.80	6.8%
Average	1.90	1.77	9.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Sertanense 45%Draw 45%Fátima 10%

The statistical model rated Sertanense at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Fátima at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.64 | 3.04 | 2.49, which imply roughly 37.9% for a Sertanense win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table: Sertanense are 12th (4 pts, 5-9 goals), Fátima 11th (5 pts, 9-10).

Over their last five matches, Sertanense averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Fátima averaged 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Sertanense or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.64	3.04	2.49

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.41	1.39	1.30

Draw no bet

1	2
1.78	1.96

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.90	1.77

1st half

1	X	2
3.28	1.98	3.20

2nd half

1	X	2
3.16	2.21	2.81

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.28	15.8	33.0
HT X	6.20	4.42	6.00
HT 2	33.7	15.8	4.23

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.96	7.55	2.11

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	6.79
1.5	1.35	2.70
2.5	2.19	1.58
3.5	4.15	1.16
4.5	9.00	1.05
5.5	21.0	1.01

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.05	6.50
1.25	1.20	3.68
1.75	1.46	2.39
2	1.63	2.04
2.25	1.91	1.75
2.75	2.55	1.40
3	3.25	1.25
3.25	3.72	1.20
4	7.80	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.38	1.47
-0.25	2.21	1.58
0	1.96	1.71
+0.25	1.66	2.03
+0.5	1.53	2.23
+0.75	1.33	2.84

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	9.70	1.01
-1.5	6.25	1.06
-1.25	4.55	1.13
-1	4.54	1.14
-0.75	3.09	1.28
+1	1.17	4.06
+1.25	1.17	4.29
+1.5	1.09	5.35
+2.5	1.01	10.0

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	1.82	1.96

Next Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches

1 Nov	Atlético Malveira – Benfica Castelo Branco
1 Nov	Fátima – Fazendense
1 Nov	Nazarenos – Sertanense
1 Nov	Oliveira Hospital – AD Nogueirense

All Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C fixtures and the table

Latest Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C results

25 Oct	Nazarenos 1-1 Oliveira Hospital
25 Oct	Fazendense 1-2 Os Marialvas
25 Oct	Benfica Castelo Branco 1-3 O Elvas
11 Oct	Mortágua 0-1 Benfica Castelo Branco
11 Oct	Os Marialvas 0-0 Sertanense
11 Oct	Atlético Malveira 3-1 Fazendense