Os Marialvas vs Sertanense• Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C, Portugal

#42.0:0.50-0FT11/100.8:1.8#12

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.69DAFX3.70DAF25.40DAFMargin at best4.7%Books7Markets42Rating76 · 24Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 11 Oct 12:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.69	3.70	5.40	4.7%
1xBet	1.61	3.42	5.13	10.8%
Bet365	1.62	3.40	5.00	11.1%
Betano	1.62	3.40	5.00	11.1%
Marathonbet	1.59	3.42	5.00	12.1%
Pinnacle	1.62	3.28	4.88	12.7%
William Hill	1.62	3.20	5.00	13.0%
Best of all books	1.69	3.70	5.40	4.7%
Average	1.62	3.40	5.06	10.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Os MarialvasSertanense

Last 10#4Table position#122.17Points per game0.6710Form pts · last 532.0Goals for · last 50.80.5Goals against · last 51.873Attack rating2778Defence rating2282Form rating1880H2H rating2083Goals model1776Overall rating24

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 25 Oct 12:50 UTC

Os Marialvas

5W 2D 3L · goals 14:5 · per match 1.4 for, 0.5 against

16 Oct	A	Chaves	1-2	L
11 Oct	H	Sertanense	0-0	D
20 Sep	A	Ovarense	1-0	W
13 Sep	A	Nazarenos	3-0	W
6 Sep	H	Fátima	3-0	W
30 Aug	A	AD Fornos Algodres	4-0	W
23 Aug	H	Oliveira Hospital	1-2	L
16 Aug	A	Atlético Malveira	1-0	W
22 Jul	A	União Lamas	0-0	D
18 Apr	A	Lajense	0-1	L

Sertanense

1W 4D 5L · goals 9:14 · per match 0.9 for, 1.4 against

25 Oct	H	Fátima	2-2	D
11 Oct	A	Os Marialvas	0-0	D
27 Sep	A	O Elvas	0-2	L
13 Sep	H	Atlético Malveira	1-1	D
30 Aug	A	Alcains	0-1	L
23 Aug	H	Mortágua	1-3	L
16 Aug	A	AD Nogueirense	1-1	D
13 Apr	A	Benfica Castelo Branco	0-1	L
6 Apr	H	Alcains	3-1	W
29 Mar	A	Os Marialvas	1-2	L

Head to head

1Os Marialvas wins

1draws

0Sertanense wins

2 meetings · goals 3:2 · last 2: 1W 1D 0L for Os Marialvas

29 Mar 2025Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Os Marialvas2-1Sertanense
8 Dec 2024Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Sertanense1-1Os Marialvas

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C tableII Divisao: Group Cupdated 31 Oct 19:02 UTC

In the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table, Os Marialvas sit 4th with 13 points from 6 games, while Sertanense are 12th with 4 points from 6.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Oliveira Hospital	6	4	1	1	10:6	+4	13
2	Mortágua	6	4	1	1	11:5	+6	13
3	O Elvas	6	4	1	1	10:5	+5	13
4	Os Marialvas	6	4	1	1	10:3	+7	13
5	UD da Serra	6	3	3	0	9:6	+3	12
6	Benfica Castelo Branco	6	3	0	3	9:12	-3	9
7	Atlético Malveira	6	2	2	2	8:9	-1	8
8	Naval 1893	6	2	1	3	6:6	0	7
9	AD Nogueirense	6	1	4	1	8:10	-2	7
10	FC Alverca II	6	2	0	4	10:7	+3	6
11	Fátima	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5
12	Sertanense	6	0	4	2	5:9	-4	4
13	Nazarenos	6	1	1	4	5:12	-7	4
14	Fazendense	6	0	1	5	7:17	-10	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg156%1.62X27%3.40218%5.06

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.63 → 1.62 -0.6%X3.48 → 3.41 -2.0%25.09 → 5.04 -1.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.15	1.67	6.4%
Pinnacle	2.13	1.62	8.7%
1xBet	2.10	1.63	9.0%
Marathonbet	2.10	1.63	9.0%
Betano	2.07	1.62	10.0%
Best of all books	2.15	1.67	6.4%
Average	2.11	1.63	8.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	2.01	1.68	9.3%
William Hill	2.00	1.67	9.9%
Marathonbet	2.01	1.66	10.0%
Best of all books	2.01	1.68	9.3%
Average	2.01	1.67	9.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Os Marialvas 50%Draw 50%Sertanense 0%

The statistical model rated Os Marialvas at 50% to win, the draw at 50% and Sertanense at 0% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.62 | 3.40 | 5.06, which imply roughly 61.7% for a Os Marialvas win versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table: Os Marialvas are 4th (13 pts, 10-3 goals), Sertanense 12th (4 pts, 5-9).

Over their last five matches, Os Marialvas averaged 2 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game; Sertanense averaged 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Os Marialvas or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.62	3.40	5.06

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.12	2.06	1.24

Draw no bet

1	2
1.24	3.60

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.01	1.67

1st half

1	X	2
2.21	2.05	5.60

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.51	8.00	3.02

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	7.27
1.5	1.33	2.85
2.5	2.11	1.63
3.5	3.82	1.18
4.5	8.00	1.06
5.5	19.0	1.01

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.04	6.95
1.25	1.18	3.90
1.75	1.42	2.51
2	1.57	2.17
2.25	1.84	1.83
2.75	2.43	1.46
3	3.05	1.29
3.25	3.42	1.23
4	7.10	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.83	1.34
-1.25	2.50	1.43
-1	2.13	1.59
-0.75	1.81	1.88
-0.5	1.77	2.01
-0.25	1.50	2.43

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	6.15	1.06
-2	5.20	1.10
-1.75	3.58	1.21
0	1.20	3.73
+0.25	1.14	4.33
+0.75	1.15	4.31
+1	1.04	7.15
+1.5	1.02	8.20

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	1.67	2.10
9	1.95	1.85

Next Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches

1 Nov	Atlético Malveira – Benfica Castelo Branco
1 Nov	Fátima – Fazendense
1 Nov	Nazarenos – Sertanense
1 Nov	Oliveira Hospital – AD Nogueirense

All Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C fixtures and the table

Latest Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C results

25 Oct	Nazarenos 1-1 Oliveira Hospital
25 Oct	Fazendense 1-2 Os Marialvas
25 Oct	Benfica Castelo Branco 1-3 O Elvas
25 Oct	Sertanense 2-2 Fátima
11 Oct	Mortágua 0-1 Benfica Castelo Branco
11 Oct	Atlético Malveira 3-1 Fazendense