Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco• Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C, Portugal

#22.3:1.00-1FT11/101.8:2.3#6

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.16DAFX3.40B36523.40DAFMargin at best5.1%Books7Markets40Rating49 · 51 levelExp. goals L53.7

Price board · 1X2captured 11 Oct 12:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.16	3.40	3.40	5.1%
Betano	2.02	3.35	3.20	10.6%
1xBet	2.01	3.22	3.32	10.9%
Bet365	2.00	3.40	3.10	11.7%
Marathonbet	1.99	3.22	3.24	12.2%
Pinnacle	2.01	3.13	3.25	12.5%
William Hill	2.05	3.00	3.25	12.9%
Best of all books	2.16	3.40	3.40	5.1%
Average	2.03	3.25	3.25	10.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MortáguaBenfica Castelo Branco

Last 10#2Table position#62.17Points per game1.508Form pts · last 562.3Goals for · last 51.81.0Goals against · last 52.356Attack rating4469Defence rating3163Form rating3825H2H rating7551Goals model4949Overall rating51

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 11 Oct 11:02 UTC

Mortágua

5W 2D 3L · goals 12:10 · per match 1.2 for, 1.0 against

20 Sep	H	Leça	0-2	L
13 Sep	A	UD da Serra	1-1	D
6 Sep	H	Fazendense	2-1	W
30 Aug	A	SC Covilha	0-0	D
23 Aug	A	Sertanense	3-1	W
16 Aug	H	Nazarenos	3-1	W
18 Apr	H	Eléctrico	2-1	W
12 Apr	A	Vitória de Sernache	0-1	L
4 Apr	H	Os Marialvas	0-2	L
29 Mar	H	Marinhense	1-0	W

Benfica Castelo Branco

4W 0D 6L · goals 14:21 · per match 1.4 for, 2.1 against

25 Oct	H	O Elvas	1-3	L
11 Oct	A	Mortágua	1-0	W
13 Sep	H	AD Nogueirense	2-3	L
6 Sep	A	FC Alverca II	1-0	W
29 Aug	A	Fátima	1-3	L
23 Aug	H	Naval 1893	1-4	L
16 Aug	A	Oliveira Hospital	3-2	W
18 Apr	A	Fátima	1-4	L
12 Apr	H	Samora Correir	1-2	L
4 Apr	A	Peniche	2-0	W

Head to head

0Mortágua wins

7draws

3Benfica Castelo Branco wins

10 meetings · goals 7:12 · last 10: 0W 7D 3L for Mortágua

10 Jan 2026Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Benfica Castelo Branco3-1Mortágua
10 Aug 2025Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Mortágua1-1Benfica Castelo Branco
16 Feb 2025Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Benfica Castelo Branco1-1Mortágua
6 Oct 2024Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Mortágua0-0Benfica Castelo Branco
21 Jan 2024Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Benfica Castelo Branco2-0Mortágua
3 Sep 2023Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Mortágua1-2Benfica Castelo Branco
12 Mar 2023Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Mortágua2-2Benfica Castelo Branco
27 Nov 2022Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Benfica Castelo Branco0-0Mortágua
21 Feb 2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E	Mortágua1-1Benfica Castelo Branco
13 Dec 2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E	Benfica Castelo Branco0-0Mortágua

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C tableII Divisao: Group Cupdated 31 Oct 19:02 UTC

In the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table, Mortágua sit 2nd with 13 points from 6 games, while Benfica Castelo Branco are 6th with 9 points from 6.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Oliveira Hospital	6	4	1	1	10:6	+4	13
2	Mortágua	6	4	1	1	11:5	+6	13
3	O Elvas	6	4	1	1	10:5	+5	13
4	Os Marialvas	6	4	1	1	10:3	+7	13
5	UD da Serra	6	3	3	0	9:6	+3	12
6	Benfica Castelo Branco	6	3	0	3	9:12	-3	9
7	Atlético Malveira	6	2	2	2	8:9	-1	8
8	Naval 1893	6	2	1	3	6:6	0	7
9	AD Nogueirense	6	1	4	1	8:10	-2	7
10	FC Alverca II	6	2	0	4	10:7	+3	6
11	Fátima	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5
12	Sertanense	6	0	4	2	5:9	-4	4
13	Nazarenos	6	1	1	4	5:12	-7	4
14	Fazendense	6	0	1	5	7:17	-10	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg144%2.03X28%3.25228%3.25

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.36 → 2.03 -14.0%X3.15 → 3.28 +4.1%22.80 → 3.22 +15.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.95	1.85	5.3%
Pinnacle	1.93	1.78	8.0%
1xBet	1.88	1.79	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.88	1.79	9.1%
Betano	1.87	1.78	9.7%
Best of all books	1.95	1.85	5.3%
Average	1.90	1.80	8.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.73	1.95	9.1%
1xBet	1.72	1.96	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.72	1.93	10.0%
Best of all books	1.73	1.96	8.8%
Average	1.72	1.95	9.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Mortágua 35%Draw 35%Benfica Castelo Branco 30%

The statistical model rated Mortágua at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Benfica Castelo Branco at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.03 | 3.25 | 3.25, which imply roughly 49.3% for a Mortágua win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table: Mortágua are 2nd (13 pts, 11-5 goals), Benfica Castelo Branco 6th (9 pts, 9-12).

Over their last five matches, Mortágua averaged 2.3 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Benfica Castelo Branco averaged 1.8 scored and 2.3 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Mortágua or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.03	3.25	3.25

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.27	1.65	1.26

Draw no bet

1	2
1.52	2.35

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.72	1.95

1st half

1	X	2
2.64	2.09	3.81

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.77	9.15	2.30

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	8.80
1.5	1.27	3.14
2.5	1.90	1.80
3.5	3.10	1.28
4.5	6.50	1.08
5.5	15.0	1.02

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.03	7.20
1.25	1.22	3.50
1.75	1.33	2.84
2	1.49	2.36
2.25	1.67	2.02
2.75	2.16	1.59
3	2.64	1.39
3.25	2.98	1.31
3.75	3.86	1.18
4	5.25	1.09

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	3.00	1.30
-0.75	2.32	1.49
-0.5	1.97	1.71
-0.25	1.76	1.94
0	1.48	2.41
+0.25	1.35	2.76

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.60	1.03
-2	6.85	1.04
-1.5	3.72	1.20
-1.25	3.35	1.24
+0.5	1.28	3.18
+0.75	1.17	4.00
+1	1.06	6.00
+1.5	1.04	6.85

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	1.88	1.90

Next Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches

1 Nov	Atlético Malveira – Benfica Castelo Branco
1 Nov	Fátima – Fazendense
1 Nov	Nazarenos – Sertanense
1 Nov	Oliveira Hospital – AD Nogueirense

All Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C fixtures and the table

Latest Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C results

25 Oct	Nazarenos 1-1 Oliveira Hospital
25 Oct	Fazendense 1-2 Os Marialvas
25 Oct	Benfica Castelo Branco 1-3 O Elvas
25 Oct	Sertanense 2-2 Fátima
11 Oct	Os Marialvas 0-0 Sertanense
11 Oct	Atlético Malveira 3-1 Fazendense