Hercílio Luz vs 
Nação• Copa Santa Catarina, Brazil
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 26 Sep 00:01 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 12.4% |
| Best of all books | 1.28 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 12.4% |
| Average | 1.28 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 12.4% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 03:11 UTC
Hercílio Luz
7W 1D 2L · goals 18:10 · per match 1.8 for, 1.0 against
| 10 Oct | A | Figueirense | 0-1 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Nação | 2-1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Marcílio Dias | 2-4 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Joinville | 3-1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Metropolitano | 4-2 | W |
| 25 Jul | A | Nação | 2-1 | W |
| 22 Jul | H | Caravaggio | 0-0 | D |
| 19 Jul | A | Tubarao | 2-0 | W |
| 15 Jul | H | Juventus SC | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Jul | A | Blumenau | 2-0 | W |
Nação
2W 4D 4L · goals 13:16 · per match 1.3 for, 1.6 against
| 9 Oct | H | Marcílio Dias | 0-0 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Hercílio Luz | 1-2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Barra | 3-3 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Joinville | 0-4 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Figueirense | 0-1 | L |
| 6 Sep | H | Santa Catarina | 2-2 | D |
| 25 Jul | H | Hercílio Luz | 1-2 | L |
| 22 Jul | A | Blumenau | 2-0 | W |
| 18 Jul | H | Caravaggio | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Jul | A | Jaraguá | 2-0 | W |
Head to head
5 meetings · goals 8:4 · last 5: 4W 1D 0L for Hercílio Luz
| 25 Jul 2026Catarinense - 2 | Catarinense - 2 | Nação1-2Hercílio Luz |
| 7 Jun 2026Catarinense - 2 | Catarinense - 2 | Hercílio Luz2-1Nação |
| 28 Sep 2024Copa Santa Catarina | Copa Santa Catarina | Hercílio Luz1-0Nação |
| 15 Feb 2024Catarinense - 1 | Catarinense - 1 | Hercílio Luz2-2Nação |
| 17 Sep 2023Copa Santa Catarina | Copa Santa Catarina | Nação0-1Hercílio Luz |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.6% margin.
1X2 since open average price
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 5.9% |
| Best of all books | 1.73 | 2.08 | 5.9% |
| Average | 1.73 | 2.08 | 5.9% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Hercílio Luz at 50% to win, the draw at 50% and Nação at 0% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.23 | 4.95 | 10.04, which imply roughly 81.3% for a Hercílio Luz win versus the model's 50%.
Over their last five matches, Hercílio Luz averaged 3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game; Nação averaged 1.3 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Hercílio Luz and +2.5 goals (goal line signal: over 2.5 goals).
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.28 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 1.11 | 6.00 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.73 | 2.40 | 8.00 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.73 | 2.08 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1.85 | 1.95 |
Corners 2-Way
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | 2.10 | 1.67 |
Latest Copa Santa Catarina results
| 18 Oct | Nação 0-1 Blumenau |
| 17 Oct | Hercílio Luz 2-0 Barra |
| 16 Oct | Marcílio Dias 2-2 Figueirense |
| 10 Oct | Figueirense 1-0 Hercílio Luz |
| 9 Oct | Nação 0-0 Marcílio Dias |
| 26 Sep | Blumenau 1-1 Marcílio Dias |