Nação vs 
Marcílio Dias• Copa Santa Catarina, Brazil
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 14:20 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 6.60 | 4.10 | 1.49 | 6.7% |
| 1xBet | 7.14 | 4.00 | 1.39 | 10.9% |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 4.10 | 1.40 | 11.2% |
| Betano | 5.80 | 3.85 | 1.47 | 11.2% |
| William Hill | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.36 | 11.6% |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 3.90 | 1.45 | 12.0% |
| Marathonbet | 6.90 | 3.96 | 1.38 | 12.2% |
| Pinnacle | 6.00 | 4.04 | 1.40 | 12.8% |
| Best of all books | 7.14 | 4.20 | 1.49 | 4.9% |
| Average | 6.46 | 4.02 | 1.42 | 10.9% |
Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 17:32 UTC
Nação
2W 3D 5L · goals 14:18 · per match 1.4 for, 1.8 against
| 26 Sep | A | Hercílio Luz | 1-2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Barra | 3-3 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Joinville | 0-4 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Figueirense | 0-1 | L |
| 6 Sep | H | Santa Catarina | 2-2 | D |
| 25 Jul | H | Hercílio Luz | 1-2 | L |
| 22 Jul | A | Blumenau | 2-0 | W |
| 18 Jul | H | Caravaggio | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Jul | A | Jaraguá | 2-0 | W |
| 12 Jul | H | Fluminense-SC | 1-2 | L |
Marcílio Dias
4W 4D 2L · goals 20:15 · per match 2.0 for, 1.5 against
| 26 Sep | A | Blumenau | 1-1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Hercílio Luz | 4-2 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Santa Catarina | 1-2 | L |
| 7 Sep | A | Metropolitano | 5-2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Joinville | 4-2 | W |
| 11 Jul | A | Portuguesa | 0-2 | L |
| 4 Jul | H | Portuguesa | 1-1 | D |
| 28 Jun | H | Cascavel | 2-1 | W |
| 21 Jun | A | Cascavel | 2-2 | D |
| 7 Jun | A | Independiente FSJ | 0-0 | D |
Head to head
3 meetings · goals 3:8 · last 3: 0W 1D 2L for Nação
| 8 Sep 2024Copa Santa Catarina | Copa Santa Catarina | Marcílio Dias1-0Nação |
| 24 Feb 2024Catarinense - 1 | Catarinense - 1 | Marcílio Dias1-1Nação |
| 7 Oct 2023Copa Santa Catarina | Copa Santa Catarina | Nação2-6Marcílio Dias |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.6% margin.
1X2 since open average price
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 5.9% |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 2.03 | 8.8% |
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 2.02 | 9.0% |
| BetVictor | 1.68 | 2.02 | 9.0% |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 2.02 | 9.0% |
| Betano | 1.65 | 2.02 | 10.1% |
| Best of all books | 1.73 | 2.08 | 5.9% |
| Average | 1.68 | 2.03 | 8.6% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.91 | 1.80 | 7.9% |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 1.83 | 8.7% |
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 1.82 | 9.0% |
| Marathonbet | 1.86 | 1.78 | 9.9% |
| Best of all books | 1.91 | 1.83 | 7.0% |
| Average | 1.87 | 1.81 | 8.9% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rates Nação at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Marcílio Dias at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 6.48 | 4.01 | 1.42, which imply roughly 24.9% for the draw versus the model's 45%.
Over their last five matches, Nação averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game; Marcílio Dias averaged 3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Marcílio Dias and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.46 | 4.02 | 1.42 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.57 | 1.07 | 1.17 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 4.60 | 1.16 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 1.87 | 1.81 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.34 | 2.29 | 1.93 |
First team to score
| Home | No Goal | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.28 | 12.0 | 1.39 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | – | 11.5 |
| 1.5 | 1.19 | 3.92 |
| 2.5 | 1.68 | 2.03 |
| 3.5 | 2.67 | 1.39 |
| 4.5 | 4.80 | 1.14 |
| 5.5 | 10.3 | 1.04 |
9 more lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.01 | 8.90 |
| 1.75 | 1.23 | 3.42 |
| 2 | 1.30 | 3.01 |
| 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.34 |
| 2.75 | 1.85 | 1.81 |
| 3 | 2.10 | 1.61 |
| 3.25 | 2.38 | 1.48 |
| 3.75 | 3.11 | 1.27 |
| 4 | 4.10 | 1.16 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| +0.5 | 2.65 | 1.39 |
| +0.75 | 2.36 | 1.49 |
| +1 | 2.03 | 1.66 |
| +1.25 | 1.78 | 1.91 |
| +1.5 | 1.60 | 2.13 |
| +1.75 | 1.44 | 2.48 |
7 more lines
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -0.25 | 5.90 | 1.07 |
| 0 | 5.32 | 1.09 |
| +0.25 | 3.34 | 1.24 |
| +2 | 1.29 | 3.06 |
| +2.5 | 1.19 | 3.74 |
| +3 | 1.05 | 6.55 |
| +3.5 | 1.03 | 7.25 |