Piratas vs Tapatío• Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

#42.8:1.401:0001/111.4:2.6#11

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.33B365X5.80DAF29.50WHMargin at best3.0%Books8Markets63Rating74 · 27Exp. goals L54.1

Price board · 1X2captured 30 Oct 05:25 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Bet365	1.33	5.50	8.00	5.9%
Dafabet	1.28	5.80	8.60	7.0%
Pinnacle	1.28	5.68	8.45	7.6%
Betano	1.28	5.30	8.25	9.1%
1xBet	1.25	5.20	8.80	10.6%
William Hill	1.22	5.50	9.50	10.7%
Betfair	1.25	5.50	7.50	11.5%
Marathonbet	1.24	5.20	8.40	11.8%
Best of all books	1.33	5.80	9.50	3.0%
Average	1.27	5.46	8.44	9.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PiratasTapatío

Last 10#4Table position#111.71Points per game1.219Form pts · last 532.8Goals for · last 51.41.4Goals against · last 52.667Attack rating3365Defence rating3575Form rating250H2H rating087Goals model1374Overall rating27

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 29 Oct 00:03 UTC

Piratas

5W 2D 3L · goals 22:12 · per match 2.2 for, 1.2 against

25 Oct	A	Dorados	5-0	W
18 Oct	H	Tepatitlán	3-0	W
10 Oct	A	Tlaxcala	2-4	L
4 Oct	H	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4-0	W
25 Sep	A	Mineros de Zacatecas	0-3	L
19 Sep	H	Venados FC	2-1	W
11 Sep	A	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1-1	D
6 Sep	H	Correcaminos Uat	4-1	W
30 Aug	A	Leones Negros UDG	1-1	D
23 Aug	H	Cancún	0-1	L

Tapatío

3W 1D 6L · goals 18:22 · per match 1.8 for, 2.2 against

25 Oct	H	Monarcas	1-2	L
18 Oct	A	Durango	0-5	L
13 Oct	H	Tepatitlán	4-1	W
9 Oct	H	CA La Paz	2-4	L
4 Oct	A	Cancún	0-1	L
20 Sep	H	Tlaxcala	4-0	W
13 Sep	A	Dorados	1-3	L
6 Sep	H	Leones Negros UDG	1-3	L
28 Aug	A	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1-1	D
24 Aug	H	Mineros de Zacatecas	4-2	W

Head to head

No previous meetings between Piratas and Tapatío on record.

Liga de Expansión MX tablePrimera A: Aperturaupdated 30 Oct 05:20 UTC

In the Liga de Expansión MX table, Piratas sit 4th with 24 points from 14 games, while Tapatío are 11th with 17 points from 14.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	14	8	3	3	33:18	+15	27
2	Leones Negros UDG	14	8	3	3	31:19	+12	27
3	Monarcas	14	8	2	4	25:16	+9	26
4	Piratas	14	7	3	4	26:14	+12	24
5	Venados FC	14	7	3	4	31:25	+6	24
6	Cancún	14	6	4	4	26:18	+8	22
7	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	15:25	-10	22
8	Durango	14	6	3	5	18:14	+4	21
9	Tlaxcala	14	5	4	5	27:27	0	19
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	26:26	0	18
11	Tapatío	14	5	2	7	24:27	-3	17
12	Correcaminos Uat	14	4	4	6	21:24	-3	16
13	Dorados	14	4	4	6	23:29	-6	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	14	4	3	7	15:23	-8	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	3	5	6	17:22	-5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	2	1	11	10:41	-31	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg172%1.27X17%5.46211%8.44

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.27 → 1.27 0.0%X5.29 → 5.46 +3.2%28.28 → 8.44 +1.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.40	2.78	7.4%
Bet365	1.44	2.62	7.6%
Betano	1.45	2.50	9.0%
1xBet	1.39	2.59	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.39	2.59	10.6%
Best of all books	1.45	2.78	4.9%
Average	1.41	2.62	8.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.73	1.98	8.3%
William Hill	1.75	1.95	8.4%
Betano	1.80	1.87	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.73	1.95	9.1%
Best of all books	1.80	1.98	6.1%
Average	1.75	1.94	8.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Piratas 50%Draw 50%Tapatío 0%

The statistical model rates Piratas at 50% to win, the draw at 50% and Tapatío at 0% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.27 | 5.46 | 8.44, which imply roughly 78.7% for a Piratas win versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Liga de Expansión MX table: Piratas are 4th (24 pts, 26-14 goals), Tapatío 11th (17 pts, 24-27).

Over their last five matches, Piratas averaged 2.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Tapatío averaged 1.4 scored and 2.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Piratas and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.27	5.46	8.44

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.06	3.28	1.11

Draw no bet

1	2
1.08	6.87

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.75	1.94

1st half

1	X	2
1.66	2.74	7.20

2nd half

1	X	2
1.50	3.30	6.90

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	1.74	19.1	52.3
HT X	4.04	8.63	17.6
HT 2	19.4	21.1	14.6

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.30	19.4	3.47

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	17.0
1.5	1.11	5.24
2.5	1.41	2.62
3.5	2.04	1.69
4.5	3.27	1.27
5.5	5.67	1.09

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	12.0
1.75	1.10	5.00
2	1.13	4.55
2.25	1.26	3.21
2.75	1.49	2.40
3	1.63	2.11
3.25	1.82	1.87
3.75	2.28	1.54
4	2.70	1.36
4.25	2.98	1.31
4.75	3.98	1.17
5	5.25	1.09
5.25	5.55	1.08
6	9.00	–

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2.25	2.50	1.45
-2	2.24	1.55
-1.75	1.95	1.77
-1.5	1.77	1.96
-1.25	1.57	2.21
-1	1.38	2.73

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	9.40	1.01
-4	8.70	1.01
-3.75	6.25	1.06
-3.5	4.95	1.11
-3.25	4.66	1.12
-3	4.30	1.14
-2.75	3.29	1.27
-2.5	2.75	1.37
-0.75	1.31	3.06
-0.5	1.28	3.53
-0.25	1.14	4.35
0	1.04	6.80

Next Liga de Expansión MX matches

31 Oct	Correcaminos Uat – Venados FC
31 Oct	CA La Paz – Dorados
1 Nov	Cancún – CDS Tampico Madero
1 Nov	Leones Negros UDG – Tepatitlán

All Liga de Expansión MX fixtures and the table

Latest Liga de Expansión MX results

30 Oct	Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-0 Mineros de Zacatecas
25 Oct	Tapatío 1-2 Monarcas
25 Oct	Tlaxcala 2-0 Correcaminos Uat
25 Oct	Mineros de Zacatecas 0-2 Leones Negros UDG
25 Oct	Dorados 0-5 Piratas
25 Oct	CDS Tampico Madero 1-3 CA La Paz