Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán• Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

#22.4:1.418:0001/11 · Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara1.0:2.6#16

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.23BTNX6.92PIN211.31XBMargin at best4.6%Books6Markets63Rating66 · 34Exp. goals L53.7

Price board · 1X2captured 30 Oct 05:25 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.21	6.92	9.49	7.6%
Dafabet	1.21	6.80	9.40	8.0%
Betano	1.23	6.10	9.00	8.8%
William Hill	1.20	6.00	10.0	10.0%
1xBet	1.17	6.30	11.3	10.2%
Marathonbet	1.16	6.30	10.8	11.4%
Best of all books	1.23	6.92	11.3	4.6%
Average	1.20	6.40	9.99	9.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Leones Negros UDGTepatitlán

Last 10#2Table position#161.93Points per game0.5010Form pts · last 542.4Goals for · last 51.01.4Goals against · last 52.671Attack rating2965Defence rating3571Form rating2950H2H rating5091Goals model966Overall rating34

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 29 Oct 00:03 UTC

Leones Negros UDG

5W 3D 2L · goals 20:14 · per match 2.0 for, 1.4 against

25 Oct	A	Mineros de Zacatecas	2-0	W
18 Oct	H	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1-2	L
10 Oct	A	Venados FC	1-1	D
4 Oct	H	Dorados	6-3	W
26 Sep	A	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2-1	W
20 Sep	A	Monarcas	0-2	L
13 Sep	H	CA La Paz	2-2	D
6 Sep	A	Tapatío	3-1	W
30 Aug	H	Piratas	1-1	D
23 Aug	A	Durango	2-1	W

Tepatitlán

2W 1D 7L · goals 9:31 · per match 0.9 for, 3.1 against

24 Oct	H	Cancún	0-4	L
18 Oct	A	Piratas	0-3	L
13 Oct	A	Tapatío	1-4	L
10 Oct	H	Monarcas	1-1	D
3 Oct	H	CDS Tampico Madero	3-1	W
19 Sep	H	Mineros de Zacatecas	0-1	L
12 Sep	A	Venados FC	0-5	L
4 Sep	H	Dorados	1-4	L
29 Aug	A	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	0-6	L
21 Aug	H	Tlaxcala	3-2	W

Head to head

7Leones Negros UDG wins

5draws

4Tepatitlán wins

16 meetings · goals 22:16 · last 10: 5W 4D 1L for Leones Negros UDG

15 Feb 2026Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG0-0Tepatitlán
7 Sep 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Tepatitlán1-1Leones Negros UDG
27 Apr 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG2-1Tepatitlán
25 Apr 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Tepatitlán2-1Leones Negros UDG
1 Mar 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Tepatitlán1-1Leones Negros UDG
15 Sep 2024Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG1-0Tepatitlán
11 Apr 2024Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG3-2Tepatitlán
13 Aug 2023Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Tepatitlán0-0Leones Negros UDG
15 Jul 2023Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Leones Negros UDG3-1Tepatitlán
28 Apr 2023Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Tepatitlán0-1Leones Negros UDG

Liga de Expansión MX tablePrimera A: Aperturaupdated 30 Oct 05:20 UTC

In the Liga de Expansión MX table, Leones Negros UDG sit 2nd with 27 points from 14 games, while Tepatitlán are 16th with 7 points from 14.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	14	8	3	3	33:18	+15	27
2	Leones Negros UDG	14	8	3	3	31:19	+12	27
3	Monarcas	14	8	2	4	25:16	+9	26
4	Piratas	14	7	3	4	26:14	+12	24
5	Venados FC	14	7	3	4	31:25	+6	24
6	Cancún	14	6	4	4	26:18	+8	22
7	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	15:25	-10	22
8	Durango	14	6	3	5	18:14	+4	21
9	Tlaxcala	14	5	4	5	27:27	0	19
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	26:26	0	18
11	Tapatío	14	5	2	7	24:27	-3	17
12	Correcaminos Uat	14	4	4	6	21:24	-3	16
13	Dorados	14	4	4	6	23:29	-6	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	14	4	3	7	15:23	-8	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	3	5	6	17:22	-5	14
16	Tepatitlán	14	2	1	11	10:41	-31	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg176%1.20X14%6.4029%9.99

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.24 → 1.20 -3.2%X5.70 → 6.40 +12.3%28.62 → 9.99 +15.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.27	3.50	7.3%
Betano	1.30	3.15	8.7%
1xBet	1.25	3.28	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.25	3.28	10.5%
Best of all books	1.30	3.50	5.5%
Average	1.27	3.30	9.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.65	2.10	8.2%
1xBet	1.63	2.12	8.5%
Marathonbet	1.63	2.09	9.2%
Betano	1.67	2.02	9.4%
Best of all books	1.67	2.12	7.1%
Average	1.65	2.08	8.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Leones Negros UDG 45%Draw 45%Tepatitlán 10%

The statistical model rates Leones Negros UDG at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Tepatitlán at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.20 | 6.40 | 9.99, which imply roughly 83.3% for a Leones Negros UDG win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga de Expansión MX table: Leones Negros UDG are 2nd (27 pts, 31-19 goals), Tepatitlán 16th (7 pts, 10-41).

Over their last five matches, Leones Negros UDG averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Tepatitlán averaged 1 scored and 2.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Leones Negros UDG and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.20	6.40	9.99

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.04	3.74	1.07

Draw no bet

1	2
1.07	7.35

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.65	2.08

1st half

1	X	2
1.54	3.02	7.71

2nd half

1	X	2
1.40	3.74	7.65

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	1.58	21.3	62.0
HT X	4.07	10.3	21.8
HT 2	18.3	22.7	17.7

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.21	30.0	3.90

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	21.0
1.5	1.06	6.73
2.5	1.27	3.30
3.5	1.72	1.99
4.5	2.59	1.42
5.5	4.31	1.16

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	14.5
1.75	1.04	7.10
2	1.05	6.50
2.25	1.15	4.31
2.75	1.37	2.81
3	1.39	2.69
3.25	1.54	2.26
3.75	1.87	1.81
4	2.13	1.61
4.25	2.37	1.50
4.75	2.98	1.31
5	3.76	1.19
5.25	4.10	1.16
6	7.30	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	2.35	1.50
-2.25	2.12	1.62
-2	1.88	1.80
-1.75	1.70	2.00
-1.5	1.61	2.18
-1.25	1.41	2.62

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	7.30	1.03
-4	6.55	1.05
-3.75	4.85	1.11
-3.5	3.90	1.18
-3.25	3.58	1.21
-3	3.39	1.26
-2.75	2.73	1.38
-1	1.26	3.35
-0.75	1.23	3.55
-0.5	1.29	3.39
-0.25	1.09	5.35
0	1.01	8.70

Next Liga de Expansión MX matches

31 Oct	Correcaminos Uat – Venados FC
31 Oct	CA La Paz – Dorados
1 Nov	Cancún – CDS Tampico Madero
1 Nov	Piratas – Tapatío

All Liga de Expansión MX fixtures and the table

Latest Liga de Expansión MX results

30 Oct	Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-0 Mineros de Zacatecas
25 Oct	Tapatío 1-2 Monarcas
25 Oct	Tlaxcala 2-0 Correcaminos Uat
25 Oct	Dorados 0-5 Piratas
25 Oct	CDS Tampico Madero 1-3 CA La Paz
25 Oct	Mineros de Zacatecas 0-2 Leones Negros UDG