Cancún vs Tapatío• Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

#62.6:1.41-0FT04/102.2:1.8#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.70B365X4.321XB24.90BTNMargin at best2.4%Books7Markets52Rating61 · 39Exp. goals L54.0

Price board · 1X2captured 30 Sep 02:30 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	1.69	4.32	4.42	4.9%
Pinnacle	1.66	3.93	4.64	7.2%
Bet365	1.65	3.80	4.75	8.0%
Betano	1.65	3.70	4.70	8.9%
Betfair	1.62	3.90	4.40	10.1%
William Hill	1.65	3.75	4.20	11.1%
Marathonbet	1.60	3.78	4.40	11.7%
Best of all books	1.69	4.32	4.75	3.4%
Average	1.65	3.88	4.50	8.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 3 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

CancúnTapatío

Last 10#6Table position#91.50Points per game1.428Form pts · last 532.6Goals for · last 52.21.4Goals against · last 51.854Attack rating4656Defence rating4453Form rating4771H2H rating2971Goals model2961Overall rating39

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 07:31 UTC

Cancún

5W 3D 2L · goals 20:11 · per match 2.0 for, 1.1 against

11 Oct	A	Mineros de Zacatecas	2-2	D
4 Oct	H	Tapatío	1-0	W
26 Sep	A	Tlaxcala	1-4	L
20 Sep	H	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3-0	W
16 Sep	A	Dorados	1-1	D
12 Sep	A	Correcaminos Uat	2-2	D
6 Sep	H	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	6-0	W
28 Aug	H	CA La Paz	1-2	L
23 Aug	A	Piratas	1-0	W
16 Aug	H	Durango	2-0	W

Tapatío

4W 1D 5L · goals 19:19 · per match 1.9 for, 1.9 against

9 Oct	H	CA La Paz	2-4	L
4 Oct	A	Cancún	0-1	L
20 Sep	H	Tlaxcala	4-0	W
13 Sep	A	Dorados	1-3	L
6 Sep	H	Leones Negros UDG	1-3	L
28 Aug	A	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1-1	D
24 Aug	H	Mineros de Zacatecas	4-2	W
15 Aug	A	Correcaminos Uat	3-2	W
8 Aug	A	Venados FC	2-3	L
1 Aug	H	CDS Tampico Madero	1-0	W

Head to head

6Cancún wins

5draws

3Tapatío wins

14 meetings · goals 11:9 · last 10: 4W 3D 3L for Cancún

27 Apr 2026Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Cancún1-0Tapatío
24 Apr 2026Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Tapatío1-1Cancún
6 Mar 2026Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Tapatío1-2Cancún
28 Sep 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Cancún1-0Tapatío
6 Apr 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Cancún1-2Tapatío
20 Oct 2024Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Tapatío2-0Cancún
27 Mar 2024Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Cancún1-1Tapatío
22 Jul 2023Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Tapatío0-0Cancún
30 Mar 2023Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Cancún1-0Tapatío
26 Aug 2022Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Tapatío1-0Cancún

Liga de Expansión MX tablePrimera A: Aperturaupdated 17 Oct 07:10 UTC

In the Liga de Expansión MX table, Cancún sit 6th with 18 points from 12 games, while Tapatío are 9th with 17 points from 12.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	13	7	3	3	30:17	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	12	7	3	2	28:17	+11	24
3	Monarcas	12	7	2	3	22:13	+9	23
4	Venados FC	12	6	2	4	27:22	+5	20
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	12	5	3	4	25:21	+4	18
6	Cancún	12	5	3	4	21:17	+4	18
7	Piratas	12	5	3	4	18:14	+4	18
8	Durango	12	5	3	4	11:11	0	18
9	Tapatío	12	5	2	5	23:20	+3	17
10	Dorados	13	4	4	5	23:24	-1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	4	4	5	21:22	-1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	4	4	5	25:27	-2	16
13	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	4	1	7	10:23	-13	13
14	CDS Tampico Madero	12	3	3	6	12:19	-7	12
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	12	2	5	5	14:19	-5	11
16	Tepatitlán	12	2	1	9	10:34	-24	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg155%1.68X24%3.78221%4.38

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.65 → 1.65 0.0%X3.88 → 3.84 -1.0%24.50 → 4.47 -0.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.66	2.21	5.5%
Pinnacle	1.65	2.19	6.3%
Bet365	1.67	2.15	6.4%
Marathonbet	1.62	2.11	9.1%
Betano	1.60	2.07	10.8%
Best of all books	1.67	2.21	5.1%
Average	1.64	2.15	7.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.63	2.12	8.5%
William Hill	1.67	2.05	8.7%
Marathonbet	1.63	2.09	9.2%
Betano	1.60	2.07	10.8%
Best of all books	1.67	2.12	7.1%
Average	1.63	2.08	9.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Cancún 45%Draw 45%Tapatío 10%

The statistical model rated Cancún at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Tapatío at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.68 | 3.78 | 4.38, which imply roughly 59.5% for a Cancún win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga de Expansión MX table: Cancún are 6th (18 pts, 21-17 goals), Tapatío 9th (17 pts, 23-20).

Over their last five matches, Cancún averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Tapatío averaged 2.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Cancún or draw and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.65	3.88	4.50

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.16	2.11	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
1.26	3.40

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.63	2.08

1st half

1	X	2
2.17	2.35	4.69

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.51	13.4	2.63

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	12.3
1.5	1.19	4.07
2.5	1.64	2.15
3.5	2.51	1.46
4.5	4.34	1.16
5.5	7.67	1.03

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	9.10
1.25	1.08	5.97
1.75	1.20	3.68
2	1.26	3.20
2.25	1.47	2.55
2.75	1.78	1.91
3	2.03	1.67
3.25	2.34	1.55
3.75	2.97	1.30
4	3.89	1.18
4.25	4.33	1.16
4.75	5.70	1.08
5	7.95	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.72	1.38
-1.25	2.43	1.48
-1	2.13	1.64
-0.75	1.81	1.90
-0.5	1.66	2.20
-0.25	1.44	2.52

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	9.60	1.01
-3	9.10	1.02
-2.75	6.55	1.05
-2.5	5.10	1.10
-2.25	4.76	1.12
-2	4.40	1.14
-1.75	3.29	1.27
0	1.26	3.39
+0.25	1.20	3.90
+0.75	1.08	5.55
+1	1.01	8.70
+1.5	1.02	8.90