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Cancún vs Tapatío• Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

#52.6:1.41-0FT04/102.2:1.8#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.70B365X4.321XB24.90BTNMargin at best2.4%Books7Markets52Rating61 · 39Exp. goals L54.0

Price board · 1X2captured 30 Sep 02:30 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet1.694.324.424.9%
Pinnacle1.663.934.647.2%
Bet3651.653.804.758.0%
Betano1.653.704.708.9%
Betfair1.623.904.4010.1%
William Hill1.653.754.2011.1%
Marathonbet1.603.784.4011.7%
Best of all books1.694.324.753.4%
Average1.653.884.508.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 3 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

CancúnTapatío
Last 10#5Table position#91.50Points per game1.428Form pts · last 532.6Goals for · last 52.21.4Goals against · last 51.854Attack rating4656Defence rating4453Form rating4771H2H rating2971Goals model2961Overall rating39

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 07:31 UTC

Cancún

5W 3D 2L · goals 20:11 · per match 2.0 for, 1.1 against

11 OctAMineros de Zacatecas2-2D
4 OctHTapatío1-0W
26 SepATlaxcala1-4L
20 SepHAlebrijes de Oaxaca3-0W
16 SepADorados1-1D
12 SepACorrecaminos Uat2-2D
6 SepHCruz Azul Hidalgo6-0W
28 AugHCA La Paz1-2L
23 AugAPiratas1-0W
16 AugHDurango2-0W

Tapatío

4W 1D 5L · goals 19:19 · per match 1.9 for, 1.9 against

9 OctHCA La Paz2-4L
4 OctACancún0-1L
20 SepHTlaxcala4-0W
13 SepADorados1-3L
6 SepHLeones Negros UDG1-3L
28 AugAAlebrijes de Oaxaca1-1D
24 AugHMineros de Zacatecas4-2W
15 AugACorrecaminos Uat3-2W
8 AugAVenados FC2-3L
1 AugHCDS Tampico Madero1-0W

Head to head

6Cancún wins
5draws
3Tapatío wins

14 meetings · goals 11:9 · last 10: 4W 3D 3L for Cancún

27 Apr 2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCancún1-0Tapatío
24 Apr 2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXTapatío1-1Cancún
6 Mar 2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXTapatío1-2Cancún
28 Sep 2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCancún1-0Tapatío
6 Apr 2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCancún1-2Tapatío
20 Oct 2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXTapatío2-0Cancún
27 Mar 2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCancún1-1Tapatío
22 Jul 2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXTapatío0-0Cancún
30 Mar 2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCancún1-0Tapatío
26 Aug 2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXTapatío1-0Cancún

Liga de Expansión MX tablePrimera A: Aperturaupdated 18 Oct 05:10 UTC

In the Liga de Expansión MX table, Cancún sit 5th with 18 points from 12 games, while Tapatío are 9th with 17 points from 12.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1CA La Paz1373330:17+1324
2Leones Negros UDG1273228:17+1124
3Monarcas1272322:13+923
4Venados FC1262427:22+520
5Cancún1253421:17+418
6Piratas1253418:14+418
7Mineros de Zacatecas1353526:23+318
8Durango1253411:11018
9Tapatío1252523:20+317
10Dorados1344523:24-116
11Correcaminos Uat1344521:22-116
12Tlaxcala1344525:27-216
13Cruz Azul Hidalgo1335516:20-414
14Alebrijes de Oaxaca1241710:23-1313
15CDS Tampico Madero1233612:19-712
16Tepatitlán1221910:34-247

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg155%1.68X24%3.78221%4.38

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

1 Oct 00:013 Oct 22:111 1.65X 3.842 4.47
11.65 → 1.65 0.0%X3.88 → 3.84 -1.0%24.50 → 4.47 -0.7%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
1xBet1.662.215.5%
Pinnacle1.652.196.3%
Bet3651.672.156.4%
Marathonbet1.622.119.1%
Betano1.602.0710.8%
Best of all books1.672.215.1%
Average1.642.157.6%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
1xBet1.632.128.5%
William Hill1.672.058.7%
Marathonbet1.632.099.2%
Betano1.602.0710.8%
Best of all books1.672.127.1%
Average1.632.089.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Cancún 45%Draw 45%Tapatío 10%

The statistical model rated Cancún at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Tapatío at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.68 | 3.78 | 4.38, which imply roughly 59.5% for a Cancún win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga de Expansión MX table: Cancún are 5th (18 pts, 21-17 goals), Tapatío 9th (17 pts, 23-20).

Over their last five matches, Cancún averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Tapatío averaged 2.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Cancún or draw and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.653.884.50

Double chance

1XX212
1.162.111.21

Draw no bet

12
1.263.40

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.632.08

1st half

1X2
2.172.354.69

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.5113.42.63

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0212.3
1.51.194.07
2.51.642.15
3.52.511.46
4.54.341.16
5.57.671.03
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.029.10
1.251.085.97
1.751.203.68
21.263.20
2.251.472.55
2.751.781.91
32.031.67
3.252.341.55
3.752.971.30
43.891.18
4.254.331.16
4.755.701.08
57.951.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.52.721.38
-1.252.431.48
-12.131.64
-0.751.811.90
-0.51.662.20
-0.251.442.52
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.59.601.01
-39.101.02
-2.756.551.05
-2.55.101.10
-2.254.761.12
-24.401.14
-1.753.291.27
01.263.39
+0.251.203.90
+0.751.085.55
+11.018.70
+1.51.028.90

Latest Liga de Expansión MX results

18 OctLeones Negros UDG 1-2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
18 OctPiratas 3-0 Tepatitlán
18 OctCancún 1-1 Venados FC
18 OctMonarcas 1-2 CDS Tampico Madero
17 OctCruz Azul Hidalgo 2-1 Mineros de Zacatecas
17 OctCA La Paz 2-2 Tlaxcala