Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca• Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

#22.2:1.818:00Tomorrow · Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara0.8:2.2#14

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.38B365X5.10PIN27.50WHMargin at best5.4%Books6Markets95Rating65 · 36Exp. goals L53.5

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 18:28 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.37	5.19	7.17	6.2%
Bet365	1.38	5.00	7.00	6.7%
BetVictor	1.33	5.00	7.50	8.5%
1xBet	1.31	4.85	7.34	10.6%
William Hill	1.30	4.80	7.50	11.1%
Marathonbet	1.30	4.85	7.00	11.8%
Best of all books	1.38	5.19	7.50	5.1%
Average	1.33	4.95	7.25	9.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Leones Negros UDGAlebrijes de Oaxaca

Last 10#2Table position#142.00Points per game1.088Form pts · last 562.2Goals for · last 50.81.8Goals against · last 52.273Attack rating2755Defence rating4557Form rating4362H2H rating3880Goals model2065Overall rating36

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 07:32 UTC

Leones Negros UDG

5W 3D 2L · goals 22:15 · per match 2.2 for, 1.5 against

10 Oct	A	Venados FC	1-1	D
4 Oct	H	Dorados	6-3	W
26 Sep	A	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2-1	W
20 Sep	A	Monarcas	0-2	L
13 Sep	H	CA La Paz	2-2	D
6 Sep	A	Tapatío	3-1	W
30 Aug	H	Piratas	1-1	D
23 Aug	A	Durango	2-1	W
16 Aug	H	CDS Tampico Madero	4-0	W
7 Aug	H	Correcaminos Uat	1-3	L

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

4W 1D 5L · goals 10:18 · per match 1.0 for, 1.8 against

9 Oct	H	Correcaminos Uat	2-1	W
4 Oct	A	Piratas	0-4	L
25 Sep	H	CA La Paz	1-3	L
20 Sep	A	Cancún	0-3	L
11 Sep	H	Durango	1-0	W
6 Sep	A	Monarcas	1-4	L
28 Aug	H	Tapatío	1-1	D
23 Aug	A	CDS Tampico Madero	1-2	L
14 Aug	H	Tepatitlán	1-0	W
6 Aug	A	Tlaxcala	2-0	W

Head to head

5Leones Negros UDG wins

13draws

4Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins

22 meetings · goals 29:24 · last 10: 3W 6D 1L for Leones Negros UDG

28 Mar 2026Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Alebrijes de Oaxaca1-1Leones Negros UDG
18 Oct 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG0-1Alebrijes de Oaxaca
16 Mar 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG3-2Alebrijes de Oaxaca
29 Sep 2024Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Alebrijes de Oaxaca2-2Leones Negros UDG
15 Feb 2024Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Alebrijes de Oaxaca0-3Leones Negros UDG
4 Aug 2023Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG5-0Alebrijes de Oaxaca
15 Mar 2023Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Alebrijes de Oaxaca2-2Leones Negros UDG
26 Jun 2022Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG0-0Alebrijes de Oaxaca
20 Jan 2022Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Alebrijes de Oaxaca1-1Leones Negros UDG
29 Aug 2021Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG1-1Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Liga de Expansión MX tablePrimera A: Aperturaupdated 17 Oct 22:01 UTC

In the Liga de Expansión MX table, Leones Negros UDG sit 2nd with 24 points from 12 games, while Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 14th with 13 points from 12.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	13	7	3	3	30:17	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	12	7	3	2	28:17	+11	24
3	Monarcas	12	7	2	3	22:13	+9	23
4	Venados FC	12	6	2	4	27:22	+5	20
5	Cancún	12	5	3	4	21:17	+4	18
6	Piratas	12	5	3	4	18:14	+4	18
7	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	5	3	5	26:23	+3	18
8	Durango	12	5	3	4	11:11	0	18
9	Tapatío	12	5	2	5	23:20	+3	17
10	Dorados	13	4	4	5	23:24	-1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	4	4	5	21:22	-1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	4	4	5	25:27	-2	16
13	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	3	5	5	16:20	-4	14
14	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	4	1	7	10:23	-13	13
15	CDS Tampico Madero	12	3	3	6	12:19	-7	12
16	Tepatitlán	12	2	1	9	10:34	-24	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg169%1.33X19%4.93213%7.22

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.38 → 1.33 -3.6%X4.65 → 4.93 +6.0%26.34 → 7.22 +13.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.49	2.58	5.9%
Bet365	1.50	2.50	6.7%
BetVictor	1.44	2.63	7.5%
1xBet	1.43	2.46	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.43	2.46	10.6%
Best of all books	1.50	2.63	4.7%
Average	1.46	2.53	8.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.70	2.05	7.6%
1xBet	1.68	2.04	8.5%
BetVictor	1.67	2.05	8.7%
Marathonbet	1.68	2.01	9.3%
Best of all books	1.70	2.05	7.6%
Average	1.68	2.04	8.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Leones Negros UDG 45%Draw 45%Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10%

The statistical model rates Leones Negros UDG at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.33 | 4.93 | 7.22, which imply roughly 75.2% for a Leones Negros UDG win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga de Expansión MX table: Leones Negros UDG are 2nd (24 pts, 28-17 goals), Alebrijes de Oaxaca 14th (13 pts, 10-23).

Over their last five matches, Leones Negros UDG averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Alebrijes de Oaxaca averaged 0.8 scored and 2.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Leones Negros UDG and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.33	4.95	7.25

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.06	3.01	1.11

Draw no bet

1	2
1.11	5.83

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.68	2.04

1st half

1	X	2
1.75	2.67	6.69

2nd half

1	X	2
1.59	3.12	6.14

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	1.84	18.7	47.3
HT X	4.18	8.23	15.8
HT 2	19.8	19.3	12.3

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.33	18.8	3.23

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	16.0
1.5	1.12	5.30
2.5	1.46	2.53
3.5	2.16	1.62
4.5	3.62	1.24
5.5	6.71	1.07

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	12.0
1.75	1.12	4.70
2	1.15	4.25
2.25	1.29	3.04
2.75	1.55	2.25
3	1.70	2.00
3.25	1.93	1.77
3.75	2.44	1.47
4	2.92	1.31
4.25	3.20	1.26
4.75	4.34	1.14
5	5.80	1.07
5.25	6.15	1.06

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2	2.66	1.41
-1.75	2.19	1.59
-1.5	1.93	1.79
-1.25	1.74	1.99
-1	1.49	2.40
-0.75	1.40	2.68

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	10.5	1.01
-4	9.50	1.01
-3.75	7.10	1.04
-3.5	5.95	1.07
-3.25	5.65	1.08
-3	5.25	1.09
-2.75	3.90	1.18
-2.5	3.27	1.28
-2.25	2.98	1.33
-0.5	1.36	3.14
-0.25	1.21	3.79
0	1.08	5.60
+0.25	1.06	6.10

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.02	6.71
7.5	1.17	3.99
8.5	1.36	2.74
9.5	1.70	2.02
10.5	2.05	1.66
11.5	2.67	1.38
12.5	3.61	1.20
13.5	5.28	1.08
14.5	7.03	1.02

24 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6.75	1.03	6.44
7	1.04	6.17
7.25	1.10	4.83
7.75	1.18	3.85
8	1.20	3.65
8.25	1.28	3.12
8.75	1.40	2.62
9	1.45	2.48
9.25	1.56	2.25
9.75	1.73	1.98
10	1.85	1.86
10.25	1.94	1.77
10.75	2.19	1.59
11	2.38	1.50
11.25	2.51	1.44
11.75	2.91	1.32
12	3.29	1.25
12.25	3.45	1.22
12.75	4.12	1.15
13	4.90	1.09
13.25	5.09	1.08
13.75	5.40	1.07
14	6.61	1.03
14.25	6.82	1.02