Piratas vs Tepatitlán• Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

#61.8:1.801:00Tomorrow1.0:2.4#16

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.25B365X7.66PIN213.0BVCMargin at best0.7%Books6Markets96Rating70 · 30Exp. goals L53.5

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 18:28 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Bet365	1.25	6.25	10.0	6.0%
Pinnacle	1.19	7.66	11.0	6.2%
BetVictor	1.15	7.00	13.0	8.9%
William Hill	1.17	6.50	12.0	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.13	6.85	11.3	12.0%
1xBet	1.13	6.85	11.2	12.0%
Best of all books	1.25	7.66	13.0	0.7%
Average	1.17	6.85	11.4	8.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PiratasTepatitlán

Last 10#6Table position#161.50Points per game0.587Form pts · last 541.8Goals for · last 51.01.8Goals against · last 52.464Attack rating3657Defence rating4364Form rating360H2H rating096Goals model470Overall rating30

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 07:31 UTC

Piratas

4W 2D 4L · goals 17:14 · per match 1.7 for, 1.4 against

10 Oct	A	Tlaxcala	2-4	L
4 Oct	H	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4-0	W
25 Sep	A	Mineros de Zacatecas	0-3	L
19 Sep	H	Venados FC	2-1	W
11 Sep	A	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1-1	D
6 Sep	H	Correcaminos Uat	4-1	W
30 Aug	A	Leones Negros UDG	1-1	D
23 Aug	H	Cancún	0-1	L
15 Aug	A	CA La Paz	0-2	L
8 Aug	A	Durango	3-0	W

Tepatitlán

2W 1D 7L · goals 9:30 · per match 0.9 for, 3.0 against

13 Oct	A	Tapatío	1-4	L
10 Oct	H	Monarcas	1-1	D
3 Oct	H	CDS Tampico Madero	3-1	W
19 Sep	H	Mineros de Zacatecas	0-1	L
12 Sep	A	Venados FC	0-5	L
4 Sep	H	Dorados	1-4	L
29 Aug	A	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	0-6	L
21 Aug	H	Tlaxcala	3-2	W
14 Aug	A	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0-1	L
8 Aug	H	CA La Paz	0-5	L

Head to head

No previous meetings between Piratas and Tepatitlán on record.

Liga de Expansión MX tablePrimera A: Aperturaupdated 17 Oct 22:01 UTC

In the Liga de Expansión MX table, Piratas sit 6th with 18 points from 12 games, while Tepatitlán are 16th with 7 points from 12.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	13	7	3	3	30:17	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	12	7	3	2	28:17	+11	24
3	Monarcas	12	7	2	3	22:13	+9	23
4	Venados FC	12	6	2	4	27:22	+5	20
5	Cancún	12	5	3	4	21:17	+4	18
6	Piratas	12	5	3	4	18:14	+4	18
7	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	5	3	5	26:23	+3	18
8	Durango	12	5	3	4	11:11	0	18
9	Tapatío	12	5	2	5	23:20	+3	17
10	Dorados	13	4	4	5	23:24	-1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	4	4	5	21:22	-1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	4	4	5	25:27	-2	16
13	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	3	5	5	16:20	-4	14
14	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	4	1	7	10:23	-13	13
15	CDS Tampico Madero	12	3	3	6	12:19	-7	12
16	Tepatitlán	12	2	1	9	10:34	-24	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg179%1.17X13%6.8528%11.4

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.19 → 1.17 -1.7%X5.99 → 6.85 +14.4%210.5 → 11.4 +8.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.30	3.42	6.2%
Bet365	1.30	3.40	6.3%
BetVictor	1.29	3.40	6.9%
1xBet	1.25	3.28	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.25	3.28	10.5%
Best of all books	1.30	3.42	6.2%
Average	1.28	3.36	8.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.73	2.00	7.8%
1xBet	1.73	1.98	8.3%
BetVictor	1.70	2.00	8.8%
Marathonbet	1.73	1.95	9.1%
Best of all books	1.73	2.00	7.8%
Average	1.72	1.98	8.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Piratas 45%Draw 45%Tepatitlán 10%

The statistical model rates Piratas at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Tepatitlán at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.17 | 6.85 | 11.40, which imply roughly 85.5% for a Piratas win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga de Expansión MX table: Piratas are 6th (18 pts, 18-14 goals), Tepatitlán 16th (7 pts, 10-34).

Over their last five matches, Piratas averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Tepatitlán averaged 1 scored and 2.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Piratas and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.17	6.85	11.4

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.03	4.42	1.06

Draw no bet

1	2
1.05	9.50

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.72	1.98

1st half

1	X	2
1.50	3.16	8.81

2nd half

1	X	2
1.36	3.90	8.55

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	1.52	23.0	54.7
HT X	4.24	11.8	23.0
HT 2	18.3	23.7	20.3

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.22	27.5	3.93

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	19.5
1.5	1.06	6.88
2.5	1.28	3.36
3.5	1.74	1.99
4.5	2.67	1.40
5.5	4.56	1.16
6.5	7.10	1.06

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	14.0
1.75	1.05	6.45
2	1.06	6.05
2.25	1.16	4.15
2.75	1.40	2.71
3	1.42	2.60
3.25	1.57	2.24
3.75	1.90	1.80
4	2.16	1.61
4.25	2.39	1.50
4.75	2.92	1.31
5	3.58	1.21
5.25	3.90	1.18
6	6.60	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2.75	2.46	1.48
-2.5	2.17	1.61
-2.25	1.97	1.76
-2	1.76	1.97
-1.75	1.60	2.20
-1.5	1.49	2.42

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	5.95	1.07
-4.25	5.25	1.16
-4	5.12	1.12
-3.75	4.00	1.19
-3.5	3.38	1.26
-3.25	3.16	1.31
-3	2.96	1.35
-1.25	1.36	2.90
-1	1.23	3.72
-0.75	1.19	4.03
-0.5	1.21	4.25
-0.25	1.10	6.67
0	1.05	11.0

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.04	6.13
7.5	1.19	3.77
8.5	1.39	2.62
9.5	1.73	1.98
10.5	2.12	1.61
11.5	2.79	1.35
12.5	3.90	1.17
13.5	5.81	1.05

21 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6.75	1.04	6.02
7	1.06	5.61
7.25	1.12	4.55
7.75	1.20	3.64
8	1.23	3.38
8.25	1.31	2.97
8.75	1.44	2.52
9	1.51	2.33
9.25	1.61	2.18
9.75	1.80	1.90
10	1.92	1.80
10.25	2.03	1.69
10.75	2.31	1.52
11	2.53	1.44
11.25	2.62	1.40
11.75	3.06	1.29
12	3.56	1.21
12.25	3.66	1.20
12.75	4.39	1.13
13	5.41	1.07
13.25	5.46	1.07