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Penybont vs Caernarfon Town• Premier League, Wales

#33.0:0.819:45Today · Bryntirion Park, Bridgend1.8:1.6#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.43DAFX3.45DAF22.81PINMargin at best5.7%Books10Markets77Rating55 · 45Exp. goals L53.6

Price board · 1X2captured 6 Nov 12:00 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle2.423.322.817.0%
Dafabet2.433.452.707.2%
William Hill2.403.102.809.6%
Betano2.403.302.6210.1%
Betfair2.383.302.6310.3%
Bet3652.353.402.5511.2%
1xBet2.343.202.6411.9%
Marathonbet2.343.202.6411.9%
SBO2.333.102.5115.0%
BetVictor2.203.002.4519.6%
Best of all books2.433.452.815.7%
Average2.363.242.6311.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PenybontCaernarfon Town
Last 10#3Table position#42.36Points per game1.9312Form pts · last 593.0Goals for · last 51.80.8Goals against · last 51.663Attack rating3867Defence rating3363Form rating3750H2H rating5046Goals model5455Overall rating45

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 6 Nov 00:10 UTC

Penybont

8W 1D 1L · goals 25:10 · per match 2.5 for, 1.0 against

31 OctACardiff MET5-0W
18 OctAAfan Lido3-2W
9 OctHBarry Town3-1W
3 OctAGAP Connah S Quay FC0-1L
26 SepHAirbus UK2-1W
18 SepAAmmanford AFC5-1W
15 SepHBriton Ferry3-2W
11 SepATrefelin1-0W
5 SepHColwyn Bay1-0W
31 AugACambrian & Clydach2-2D

Caernarfon Town

6W 2D 2L · goals 30:11 · per match 3.0 for, 1.1 against

30 OctAAirbus UK2-3L
23 OctHBriton Ferry3-1W
17 OctAFlint Town United3-1W
9 OctAHaverfordwest County AFC2-1W
3 OctHBarry Town0-1L
26 SepACardiff MET2-2D
18 SepHCambrian & Clydach9-1W
15 SepALlandudno1-1D
11 SepAAmmanford AFC5-0W
4 SepHFlint Town United3-0W

Head to head

12Penybont wins
6draws
7Caernarfon Town wins

25 meetings · goals 47:31 · last 10: 5W 1D 4L for Penybont

7 Aug 2026Premier LeaguePremier LeagueCaernarfon Town1-2Penybont
18 Apr 2026Premier LeaguePremier LeagueCaernarfon Town2-0Penybont
24 Jan 2026Premier LeaguePremier LeaguePenybont0-0Caernarfon Town
25 Oct 2025Premier LeaguePremier LeaguePenybont0-2Caernarfon Town
20 Sep 2025Premier LeaguePremier LeagueCaernarfon Town1-2Penybont
13 Apr 2025Premier LeaguePremier LeaguePenybont3-1Caernarfon Town
22 Feb 2025Premier LeaguePremier LeagueCaernarfon Town3-2Penybont
2 Nov 2024Premier LeaguePremier LeagueCaernarfon Town1-5Penybont
7 Sep 2024Premier LeaguePremier LeaguePenybont2-0Caernarfon Town
18 May 2024Premier LeaguePremier LeagueCaernarfon Town3-1Penybont

Premier League tablePremier Leagueupdated 6 Nov 00:31 UTC

In the Premier League table, Penybont sit 3rd with 33 points from 14 games, while Caernarfon Town are 4th with 29 points from 15.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1The New Saints15132053:6+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15112232:9+2335
3Penybont14103130:11+1933
4Caernarfon Town1592442:19+2329
5Colwyn Bay1592426:17+929
6Barry Town1591532:26+628
7Airbus UK1590631:22+927
8Cardiff MET1564526:23+322
9Cambrian & Clydach1553723:38-1518
10Llandudno1551922:28-616
11Haverfordwest County AFC1551912:20-816
12Briton Ferry1543816:25-915
13Flint Town United1542919:25-614
14Ammanford AFC15231010:42-329
15Trefelin1513118:36-286
16Holywell14021214:49-352

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg138%2.36X28%3.24234%2.64

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

3 Nov 00:006 Nov 12:201 2.36X 3.242 2.64
12.63 → 2.36 -10.3%X3.38 → 3.24 -4.1%22.42 → 2.64 +9.1%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Bet3651.732.085.9%
Pinnacle1.752.055.9%
Betano1.722.056.9%
1xBet1.701.999.1%
Marathonbet1.701.999.1%
BetVictor1.571.7819.9%
Best of all books1.752.085.2%
Average1.701.999.2%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3651.622.207.2%
Betano1.572.277.7%
William Hill1.572.258.1%
1xBet1.562.258.5%
Marathonbet1.562.219.4%
BetVictor1.451.9520.2%
Best of all books1.622.275.8%
Average1.552.1910.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Penybont 45%Draw 45%Caernarfon Town 10%

The statistical model rates Penybont at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Caernarfon Town at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.36 | 3.24 | 2.64, which imply roughly 42.4% for a Penybont win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Penybont are 3rd (33 pts, 30-11 goals), Caernarfon Town 4th (29 pts, 42-19).

Over their last five matches, Penybont averaged 3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Caernarfon Town averaged 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Penybont or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.363.242.64

Double chance

1XX212
1.411.471.27

Draw no bet

12
1.771.88

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.562.19

1st half

1X2
2.922.193.16

2nd half

1X2
2.682.512.95

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 13.8713.627.4
HT X5.965.406.39
HT 226.013.74.21

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.8712.81.99

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.049.27
1.51.203.68
2.51.701.99
3.52.651.38
4.54.661.12
5.57.441.04
6.511.31.01
7.521.0–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.038.00
1.251.095.35
1.751.233.43
21.313.03
2.251.492.26
2.751.871.77
32.121.58
3.252.371.45
3.753.291.25
44.351.14
4.254.751.12
4.756.501.05
59.30–

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.752.851.37
-0.52.321.51
-0.252.031.64
01.751.92
+0.251.532.23
+0.51.432.51
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.59.401.02
-28.401.03
-1.756.231.08
-1.54.731.14
-1.254.301.17
-13.871.20
+0.751.303.19
+11.164.37
+1.251.144.80
+1.51.115.23
+1.751.067.00
+21.019.70
+2.51.029.30

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
5.51.036.51
6.51.134.34
7.51.372.77
8.51.692.05
9.52.121.64
10.52.671.38
11.53.751.19
12.55.631.06
21 more lines
LineOverUnder
5.751.046.22
61.027.02
6.251.075.29
6.751.154.12
71.173.90
7.251.253.26
7.751.382.70
81.442.54
8.251.542.29
8.751.722.00
91.821.89
9.251.941.77
9.752.201.59
102.381.50
10.252.541.43
10.752.981.31
113.401.23
11.253.581.21
11.754.321.13
125.221.08
12.255.421.07

Next Premier League matches

6 NovCambrian & Clydach – Barry Town
6 NovAmmanford AFC – Briton Ferry
6 NovHaverfordwest County AFC – Cardiff MET
6 NovHolywell – Airbus UK
6 NovLlandudno – The New Saints
6 NovTrefelin – Colwyn Bay

All Premier League fixtures and the table

Latest Premier League results

31 OctThe New Saints 0-0 GAP Connah S Quay FC
31 OctCardiff MET 0-5 Penybont
30 OctBarry Town 3-0 Trefelin
30 OctAmmanford AFC 0-1 Haverfordwest County AFC
30 OctAirbus UK 3-2 Caernarfon Town
30 OctFlint Town United 5-0 Holywell