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Moreirense vs Estrela• Primeira Liga, Portugal

#101.4:1.615:30Tomorrow · Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas, Guimarães1.0:1.8#12

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.931XBX3.40DAF22.55PINMargin at best2.8%Books10Markets68Rating53 · 47 levelExp. goals L52.9

Price board · 1X2captured 30 Oct 01:13 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet2.933.362.553.1%
Dafabet2.853.402.553.7%
Pinnacle2.893.242.554.7%
Betano2.823.302.555.0%
Bet3652.803.302.506.0%
Betfair2.803.302.456.8%
Marathonbet2.813.222.457.5%
BetVictor2.703.252.409.5%
William Hill2.803.102.409.6%
SBO2.583.022.3215.0%
Best of all books2.933.402.552.8%
Average2.803.252.477.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MoreirenseEstrela
Last 10#10Table position#121.22Points per game1.117Form pts · last 541.4Goals for · last 51.01.6Goals against · last 51.858Attack rating4253Defence rating4764Form rating3650H2H rating5042Goals model5853Overall rating47

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 28 Oct 00:04 UTC

Moreirense

3W 2D 5L · goals 11:17 · per match 1.1 for, 1.7 against

25 OctAEstoril3-1W
17 OctAAVS0-1L
9 OctHGIL Vicente0-1L
20 SepAVitória SC1-1D
14 SepHMaritimo3-1W
9 SepHBenfica0-4L
4 SepAFC Porto1-2L
30 AugACasa Pia1-0W
16 AugAArouca0-4L
9 AugHSC Braga2-2D

Estrela

3W 4D 3L · goals 16:18 · per match 1.6 for, 1.8 against

24 OctHCasa Pia0-2L
17 OctAFazendense2-1W
11 OctAArouca0-1L
20 SepHAcademico Viseu0-2L
14 SepARio Ave3-3D
10 SepHSC Braga2-1W
5 SepHFamalicao2-2D
30 AugANacional3-2W
15 AugAAlverca2-2D
8 AugHSporting CP2-2D

Head to head

4Moreirense wins
4draws
1Estrela wins

9 meetings · goals 16:11 · last 9: 4W 4D 1L for Moreirense

2 May 2026Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaMoreirense3-2Estrela
20 Dec 2025Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaEstrela0-0Moreirense
2 Mar 2025Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaMoreirense1-1Estrela
28 Sep 2024Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaEstrela2-1Moreirense
7 Apr 2024Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaMoreirense2-2Estrela
11 Nov 2023Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaEstrela0-1Moreirense
6 May 2023Segunda LigaSegunda LigaEstrela2-4Moreirense
31 Dec 2022Segunda LigaSegunda LigaMoreirense0-0Estrela
27 Nov 2022Taça da LigaTaça da LigaMoreirense4-2Estrela

Primeira Liga tablePrimeira Ligaupdated 30 Oct 00:20 UTC

In the Primeira Liga table, Moreirense sit 10th with 11 points from 9 games, while Estrela are 12th with 10 points from 9.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1FC Porto990021:4+1727
2Benfica971126:8+1822
3Sporting CP953121:11+1018
4Santa Clara953113:6+718
5Arouca952212:7+517
6Academico Viseu952213:11+217
7GIL Vicente94238:7+114
8Alverca932413:13011
9SC Braga93249:11-211
10Moreirense932411:16-511
11Famalicao924314:11+310
12Estrela924314:17-310
13Vitória SC922510:1008
14Maritimo92259:19-108
15Nacional921610:18-87
16Casa Pia92165:17-127
17Rio Ave92168:21-137
18Estoril90275:15-102

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg133%2.80X29%3.25238%2.47

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

28 Oct 00:0130 Oct 03:301 2.80X 3.252 2.47
12.91 → 2.80 -3.8%X3.26 → 3.25 -0.3%22.38 → 2.47 +3.8%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
1xBet2.021.873.0%
Betano2.001.854.1%
Pinnacle1.991.854.3%
SBO2.001.824.9%
Bet3651.951.855.3%
Betfair1.901.876.1%
Marathonbet1.941.807.1%
BetVictor1.901.779.1%
Best of all books2.021.873.0%
Average1.961.835.5%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.732.105.4%
Betano1.722.056.9%
Bet3651.752.007.1%
William Hill1.732.007.8%
1xBet1.722.017.9%
Marathonbet1.721.988.6%
BetVictor1.702.008.8%
Best of all books1.752.104.8%
Average1.722.027.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Moreirense 45%Draw 45%Estrela 10%

The statistical model rates Moreirense at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Estrela at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.47, which imply roughly 35.7% for a Moreirense win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primeira Liga table: Moreirense are 10th (11 pts, 11-16 goals), Estrela 12th (10 pts, 14-17).

Over their last five matches, Moreirense averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Estrela averaged 1 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Moreirense or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.803.252.47

Double chance

1XX212
1.511.401.32

Draw no bet

12
1.991.77

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.722.02

1st half

1X2
3.392.103.02

2nd half

1X2
3.092.402.73

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 14.5714.127.7
HT X6.484.935.87
HT 229.213.73.99

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.099.051.94

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.048.98
1.51.303.37
2.51.961.84
3.53.361.30
4.56.531.09
5.512.21.03
6.518.91.01
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.047.65
11.067.09
1.251.174.26
1.751.372.81
21.482.55
2.251.722.08
2.752.201.62
32.691.44
3.252.911.35
3.753.951.19
45.401.11
4.255.701.09
59.301.03

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.52.751.44
-0.252.381.56
02.021.78
+0.251.702.10
+0.51.532.46
+0.751.372.92
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.512.01.02
-1.757.171.05
-1.55.691.11
-1.255.171.13
-14.841.16
-0.753.361.29
+11.224.00
+1.251.184.39
+1.51.154.84
+1.751.096.27
+21.028.90
+2.51.0310.2

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
4.51.702.07

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
3.51.0211.5
4.51.058.50
5.51.095.67
6.51.233.59
7.51.452.50
8.51.831.87
9.52.361.50
10.53.231.28
11.54.621.14
12.56.531.06
13.58.751.05
14.510.81.03
8 more lines
LineOverUnder
6.751.233.42
7.251.342.79
7.751.482.37
8.251.682.03
8.751.891.77
9.252.181.56
9.752.531.41
10.252.971.30

Next Primeira Liga matches

30 OctCasa Pia – Sporting CP
31 OctFC Porto – Estoril
1 NovArouca – Nacional
1 NovMaritimo – Santa Clara
1 NovAcademico Viseu – Rio Ave
1 NovSC Braga – Famalicao

All Primeira Liga fixtures and the table

Latest Primeira Liga results

26 OctSanta Clara 1-2 Benfica
25 OctSporting CP 1-2 Academico Viseu
25 OctRio Ave 0-4 Famalicao
25 OctNacional 1-0 SC Braga
25 OctEstoril 1-3 Moreirense
24 OctGIL Vicente 0-1 FC Porto