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Arouca vs Nacional• Primeira Liga, Portugal

#51.0:0.815:3001/11 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca0.8:2.4#15

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.87BTNX3.901XB24.481XBMargin at best1.4%Books10Markets58Rating74 · 26Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 30 Oct 01:13 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet1.883.864.173.1%
Dafabet1.863.754.204.2%
Pinnacle1.783.814.474.8%
Betano1.873.654.155.0%
Betfair1.803.754.206.0%
Bet3651.803.704.107.0%
Marathonbet1.803.704.007.6%
William Hill1.803.504.009.1%
BetVictor1.753.604.109.3%
SBO1.823.143.5515.0%
Best of all books1.883.864.471.5%
Average1.823.654.096.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

AroucaNacional
Last 10#5Table position#151.89Points per game0.7810Form pts · last 531.0Goals for · last 50.80.8Goals against · last 52.456Attack rating4475Defence rating2573Form rating2780H2H rating2086Goals model1474Overall rating26

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 29 Oct 00:03 UTC

Arouca

6W 2D 2L · goals 16:10 · per match 1.6 for, 1.0 against

24 OctAAlverca1-0W
18 OctACF Os Belenenses4-3W
11 OctHEstrela1-0W
19 SepASporting CP2-2D
13 SepHSanta Clara1-2L
7 SepAEstoril0-0D
29 AugHMaritimo2-1W
23 AugAFC Porto0-2L
16 AugHMoreirense4-0W
8 AugAVitória SC1-0W

Nacional

2W 1D 7L · goals 10:19 · per match 1.0 for, 1.9 against

25 OctHSC Braga1-0W
17 OctASanjoanense0-1L
11 OctARio Ave2-3L
19 SepHFamalicao0-4L
12 SepHAlverca1-3L
5 SepASporting CP0-2L
30 AugHEstrela2-3L
23 AugAVitória SC0-1L
16 AugHEstoril2-0W
10 AugASanta Clara2-2D

Head to head

7Arouca wins
5draws
2Nacional wins

14 meetings · goals 23:14 · last 10: 6W 3D 1L for Arouca

21 Feb 2026Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaArouca3-0Nacional
20 Sep 2025Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaNacional1-2Arouca
1 Feb 2025Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaNacional1-2Arouca
25 Aug 2024Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaArouca1-0Nacional
6 May 2018Segunda LigaSegunda LigaArouca0-1Nacional
22 Dec 2017Segunda LigaSegunda LigaNacional2-2Arouca
28 Jan 2017Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaNacional1-1Arouca
21 Aug 2016Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaArouca2-0Nacional
1 May 2016Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaArouca3-0Nacional
2 Jan 2016Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaNacional2-2Arouca

Primeira Liga tablePrimeira Ligaupdated 30 Oct 00:20 UTC

In the Primeira Liga table, Arouca sit 5th with 17 points from 9 games, while Nacional are 15th with 7 points from 9.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1FC Porto990021:4+1727
2Benfica971126:8+1822
3Sporting CP953121:11+1018
4Santa Clara953113:6+718
5Arouca952212:7+517
6Academico Viseu952213:11+217
7GIL Vicente94238:7+114
8Alverca932413:13011
9SC Braga93249:11-211
10Moreirense932411:16-511
11Famalicao924314:11+310
12Estrela924314:17-310
13Vitória SC922510:1008
14Maritimo92259:19-108
15Nacional921610:18-87
16Casa Pia92165:17-127
17Rio Ave92168:21-137
18Estoril90275:15-102

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg152%1.80X26%3.66222%4.18

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

29 Oct 00:0130 Oct 06:011 1.80X 3.662 4.18
11.82 → 1.80 -1.1%X3.64 → 3.66 +0.5%24.08 → 4.18 +2.5%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
1xBet1.872.023.0%
Betano1.871.984.0%
Pinnacle1.851.994.3%
SBO1.841.984.9%
Bet3651.851.955.3%
Betfair1.802.005.6%
Marathonbet1.801.947.1%
BetVictor1.781.908.8%
Best of all books1.872.023.0%
Average1.831.975.3%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betano1.722.056.9%
Bet3651.752.007.1%
William Hill1.702.057.6%
1xBet1.712.028.0%
Marathonbet1.711.998.7%
BetVictor1.702.008.8%
Best of all books1.752.055.9%
Average1.712.027.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Arouca 45%Draw 45%Nacional 10%

The statistical model rates Arouca at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Nacional at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.80 | 3.66 | 4.18, which imply roughly 55.6% for a Arouca win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primeira Liga table: Arouca are 5th (17 pts, 12-7 goals), Nacional 15th (7 pts, 10-18).

Over their last five matches, Arouca averaged 1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Nacional averaged 0.8 scored and 2.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Arouca.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.823.654.09

Double chance

1XX212
1.221.941.25

Draw no bet

12
1.343.04

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.722.02

1st half

1X2
2.362.224.42

2nd half

1X2
2.162.544.01

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 12.7814.438.9
HT X4.725.548.93
HT 223.415.16.79

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.6012.82.46

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0410.5
1.51.253.71
2.51.831.97
3.53.021.36
4.55.881.11
5.510.51.04
6.516.91.02
7.531.3–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.048.55
1.251.115.15
1.751.293.17
21.402.87
2.251.602.24
2.752.041.75
32.401.54
3.252.651.42
3.753.641.23
44.991.13
4.255.371.11
4.757.371.04
58.301.05

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.252.811.40
-12.481.52
-0.752.031.77
-0.51.802.01
-0.251.562.34
01.343.15
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.511.01.02
-2.56.481.08
-2.256.221.09
-25.771.11
-1.753.971.22
-1.53.181.33
+0.251.263.54
+0.51.244.01
+0.751.135.16
+11.048.35
+1.251.0110.2
+1.51.0410.1

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
5.52.001.75

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
7.51.273.55
8.51.472.55
9.51.811.94
10.52.351.55
11.53.151.33

Next Primeira Liga matches

30 OctCasa Pia – Sporting CP
31 OctMoreirense – Estrela
31 OctFC Porto – Estoril
1 NovMaritimo – Santa Clara
1 NovAcademico Viseu – Rio Ave
1 NovSC Braga – Famalicao

All Primeira Liga fixtures and the table

Latest Primeira Liga results

26 OctSanta Clara 1-2 Benfica
25 OctSporting CP 1-2 Academico Viseu
25 OctNacional 1-0 SC Braga
25 OctRio Ave 0-4 Famalicao
25 OctEstoril 1-3 Moreirense
24 OctGIL Vicente 0-1 FC Porto