Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense• Segunda División RFEF - Group 3, Spain

#100.3:0.71-0FT27/09 · Lorca1.7:0.7#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.10B365X3.20B36523.85PINMargin at best4.8%Books5Markets37Rating28 · 72Exp. goals L51.7

Price board · 1X2captured 23 Sep 02:30 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	2.27	3.25	2.90	9.3%
Betfair	2.20	3.25	3.00	9.6%
1xBet	2.27	3.12	2.90	10.6%
Bet365	2.20	3.25	2.88	10.9%
Marathonbet	2.25	3.12	2.83	11.8%
Best of all books	2.27	3.25	3.00	8.2%
Average	2.24	3.20	2.90	10.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 4 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Lorca DeportivaCastellonense

Last 10#10Table position#31.29Points per game2.007Form pts · last 590.3Goals for · last 51.70.7Goals against · last 50.717Attack rating8350Defence rating5018Form rating820H2H rating027Goals model7328Overall rating72

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 03:51 UTC

Lorca Deportiva

2W 3D 5L · goals 8:11 · per match 0.8 for, 1.1 against

11 Oct	A	La Nucía	3-1	W
3 Oct	A	Castellón II	1-2	L
27 Sep	H	Castellonense	1-0	W
20 Sep	H	Intercity	0-0	D
13 Sep	A	Orihuela	0-1	L
6 Sep	H	Elche II	1-1	D
15 Aug	A	Águilas	0-1	L
3 May	A	Deportiva Minera	0-1	L
26 Apr	H	Yeclano	2-2	D
19 Apr	A	Águilas	0-2	L

Castellonense

5W 1D 4L · goals 17:12 · per match 1.7 for, 1.2 against

11 Oct	A	Deportiva Minera	2-3	L
4 Oct	H	Real Murcia II	3-0	W
27 Sep	A	Lorca Deportiva	0-1	L
19 Sep	H	Cieza	1-0	W
13 Sep	A	Poblense	2-1	W
5 Sep	H	Ucam Murcia	2-1	W
9 May	H	Atzeneta	0-1	L
2 May	A	Hércules II	4-1	W
26 Apr	H	Saguntino	1-1	D
18 Apr	H	Ontinyent 1931	2-3	L

Head to head

No previous meetings between Lorca Deportiva and Castellonense on record.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 tableGroup 3updated 18 Oct 13:01 UTC

In the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table, Lorca Deportiva sit 10th with 9 points from 7 games, while Castellonense are 3rd with 12 points from 6.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Ucam Murcia	6	4	0	2	14:6	+8	12
2	Castellón II	6	4	0	2	13:7	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	4	0	2	10:6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	4	0	2	10:6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	3	2	1	10:4	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	3	2	1	8:6	+2	11
7	Yeclano	7	2	4	1	7:6	+1	10
8	Alcoyano	6	3	1	2	6:6	0	10
9	Orihuela	7	3	1	3	9:14	-5	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	2	3	2	8:7	+1	9
11	Intercity	6	2	3	1	8:8	0	9
12	Elche II	6	2	1	3	7:9	-2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	1	4	2	10:13	-3	7
14	Poblense	7	2	1	4	7:10	-3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	1	3	3	4:8	-4	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	1	1	4	6:9	-3	4
17	Valencia II	6	1	1	4	6:11	-5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	1	1	4	5:12	-7	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg145%2.01X30%3.03225%3.54

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.24 → 2.01 -10.3%X3.20 → 3.03 -5.3%22.90 → 3.54 +22.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.15	1.67	6.4%
1xBet	2.08	1.64	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.08	1.64	9.1%
Betano	2.02	1.62	11.2%
Best of all books	2.15	1.67	6.4%
Average	2.08	1.64	8.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.83	1.86	8.4%
Marathonbet	1.83	1.83	9.3%
Betano	1.83	1.78	10.8%
Best of all books	1.83	1.86	8.4%
Average	1.83	1.82	9.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Lorca Deportiva 10%Draw 45%Castellonense 45%

The statistical model rated Lorca Deportiva at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Castellonense at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.01 | 3.03 | 3.54, which imply roughly 33% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table: Lorca Deportiva are 10th (9 pts, 8-7 goals), Castellonense 3rd (12 pts, 10-6).

Over their last five matches, Lorca Deportiva averaged 0.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game; Castellonense averaged 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Castellonense and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.24	3.20	2.90

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.33	1.54	1.27

Draw no bet

1	2
1.65	2.06

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.83	1.82

1st half

1	X	2
2.95	2.01	3.60

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.89	8.35	2.17

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	7.00
1.5	1.33	2.82
2.5	2.08	1.64
3.5	3.68	1.20
4.5	6.55	1.06
5.5	12.0	1.02

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.04	7.10
1.25	1.18	3.92
1.75	1.41	2.52
2	1.55	2.17
2.25	1.83	1.83
2.75	2.42	1.46
3	3.05	1.28
3.25	3.42	1.23
3.75	4.61	1.13
4	7.10	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	3.82	1.18
-0.75	2.70	1.36
-0.25	1.95	1.76
0	1.65	2.05
+0.25	1.44	2.42
+0.75	1.21	3.58

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	9.70	1.01
-2	8.60	1.03
-1.5	4.80	1.11
-1.25	4.33	1.14
+1	1.08	5.45
+1.25	1.09	5.26
+1.5	1.05	6.60

Latest Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 results

18 Oct	Mallorca II 0-2 Orihuela
18 Oct	Yeclano 2-2 Poblense
18 Oct	Lorca Deportiva 2-2 Atlético Baleares
11 Oct	La Nucía 1-3 Lorca Deportiva
11 Oct	Cieza 3-1 Intercity
11 Oct	Ucam Murcia 2-0 Alcoyano