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Leon vs Toluca• Liga MX, Mexico

#71.8:1.623:0024/10 · Estadio León, Leon1.8:2.0#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.25DAFX3.85DAF22.12BTNMargin at best3.9%Books8Markets55Rating44 · 56Exp. goals L53.6

Price board · 1X2captured 21 Oct 08:26 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Dafabet3.253.852.075.1%
Betano3.153.702.125.9%
1xBet3.123.622.078.0%
Bet3653.103.702.058.1%
Betfair3.003.802.058.4%
BetVictor3.133.602.058.5%
Marathonbet3.103.622.058.7%
William Hill3.003.402.0012.7%
Best of all books3.253.852.123.9%
Average3.113.662.068.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

LeonToluca
Last 10#7Table position#31.50Points per game1.758Form pts · last 521.8Goals for · last 51.81.6Goals against · last 52.050Attack rating5056Defence rating4462Form rating3815H2H rating8545Goals model5544Overall rating56

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 21 Oct 06:10 UTC

Leon

4W 3D 3L · goals 14:14 · per match 1.4 for, 1.4 against

21 OctATigres UANL2-0W
18 OctHClub America3-5L
10 OctAPuebla1-1D
28 SepHFC Juarez2-1W
21 SepAClub Queretaro1-1D
15 SepHAtletico San Luis2-0W
11 SepAU.N.A.M. - Pumas1-3L
6 SepHClub America1-0W
3 SepAToluca0-2L
29 AugAAtlante FC1-1D

Toluca

5W 2D 3L · goals 23:14 · per match 2.3 for, 1.4 against

18 OctHAtletico San Luis1-1D
10 OctATigres UANL2-3L
3 OctAMonterrey1-2L
26 SepACruz Azul3-3D
21 SepHSantos Laguna2-3L
16 SepAPuebla1-0W
12 SepHAtlas5-2W
7 SepHMonterrey2-0W
3 SepHLeon2-0W
31 AugHFC Juarez4-0W

Head to head

6Leon wins
8draws
7Toluca wins

21 meetings · goals 36:38 · last 10: 1W 4D 5L for Leon

3 Sep 2026Leagues CupLeagues CupToluca2-0Leon
26 Apr 2026Liga MXLiga MXToluca4-1Leon
5 Oct 2025Liga MXLiga MXLeon2-4Toluca
9 Feb 2025Liga MXLiga MXLeon3-3Toluca
2 Nov 2024Liga MXLiga MXToluca2-2Leon
3 Feb 2024Liga MXLiga MXToluca4-1Leon
21 Oct 2023Liga MXLiga MXLeon1-0Toluca
29 Jan 2023Liga MXLiga MXToluca0-0Leon
27 Jul 2022Liga MXLiga MXLeon0-1Toluca
2 May 2022Liga MXLiga MXLeon4-4Toluca

Liga MX tableLiga MX: Aperturaupdated 21 Oct 06:10 UTC

In the Liga MX table, Leon sit 7th with 18 points from 12 games, while Toluca are 3rd with 21 points from 12.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Club America1173127:14+1324
2Guadalajara Chivas1365220:12+823
3Toluca1263326:16+1021
4Atlas1263319:18+121
5Cruz Azul1262427:21+620
6Club Queretaro1262416:15+120
7Leon1253418:17+118
8Monterrey1152419:16+317
9Santos Laguna1251617:16+116
10Club Tijuana1144315:14+116
11U.N.A.M. - Pumas1244419:20-116
12Puebla1244412:13-116
13Atletico San Luis1344518:22-416
14Tigres UANL1235414:16-214
15Atlante FC1335514:19-514
16CF Pachuca1234519:16+313
17Necaxa1323815:26-119
18FC Juarez1311118:32-244

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg130%3.11X25%3.66245%2.06

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.9% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Betano1.622.354.3%
Bet3651.602.306.0%
1xBet1.602.237.3%
Marathonbet1.602.237.3%
Betfair1.572.258.1%
BetVictor1.582.199.0%
Best of all books1.622.354.3%
Average1.592.267.0%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.502.555.9%
Betano1.522.427.1%
Bet3651.532.387.4%
1xBet1.522.378.0%
BetVictor1.502.408.3%
William Hill1.502.388.7%
Marathonbet1.522.338.7%
Best of all books1.532.554.6%
Average1.512.407.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Leon 10%Draw 45%Toluca 45%

The statistical model rates Leon at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Toluca at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.11 | 3.66 | 2.06, which imply roughly 27.3% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga MX table: Leon are 7th (18 pts, 18-17 goals), Toluca 3rd (21 pts, 26-16).

Over their last five matches, Leon averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Toluca averaged 1.8 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Toluca.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
3.113.662.06

Double chance

1XX212
1.711.341.25

Draw no bet

12
2.281.56

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.512.40

1st half

1X2
3.522.332.59

2nd half

1X2
3.222.632.37

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 15.0513.622.3
HT X7.576.155.45
HT 228.513.63.20

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.1316.51.72

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0213.4
1.51.164.50
2.51.602.26
3.52.441.49
4.54.351.18
5.58.101.05
6.516.91.02
7.528.31.01
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.019.70
1.251.075.80
1.751.183.84
21.233.44
2.251.422.61
2.751.721.97
31.941.77
3.252.151.57
3.752.781.35
43.501.22
4.253.861.18
4.755.151.10
57.001.04

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.252.641.42
02.321.55
+0.251.911.77
+0.51.732.06
+0.751.522.31
+11.352.95
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.511.01.02
-1.757.681.02
-1.56.011.09
-1.255.631.10
-15.231.12
-0.753.621.23
-0.53.051.36
+1.251.293.19
+1.51.233.61
+1.751.154.51
+21.076.40
+2.51.057.10
+3.51.0212.0

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
7.51.253.75
8.51.452.62
9.51.761.99
10.52.271.60
11.53.051.35

Next Liga MX matches

22 OctAtlas – Club America
22 OctToluca – Club Tijuana
22 OctPuebla – Monterrey
22 OctCF Pachuca – Cruz Azul
22 OctSantos Laguna – U.N.A.M. - Pumas
24 OctNecaxa – FC Juarez

All Liga MX fixtures and the table

Latest Liga MX results

21 OctTigres UANL 0-2 Leon
21 OctAtletico San Luis 2-1 Club Queretaro
21 OctFC Juarez 0-1 Atlante FC
21 OctGuadalajara Chivas 1-0 Necaxa
19 OctMonterrey 2-1 CF Pachuca
18 OctCruz Azul 5-0 FC Juarez