Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar• Primera A, Colombia

#101.4:1.021:0012/110.8:1.0#17

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.28B365X5.76PIN213.6PINMargin at best2.9%Books9Markets61Rating54 · 46 levelExp. goals L52.1

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Nov 12:30 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Bet365	1.28	5.25	11.0	6.3%
Betano	1.28	5.00	11.5	6.8%
William Hill	1.25	5.00	13.0	7.7%
Betfair	1.25	5.50	10.5	7.7%
1xBet	1.25	5.45	10.5	7.9%
Pinnacle	1.20	5.76	13.6	8.1%
Dafabet	1.25	5.20	11.0	8.3%
Marathonbet	1.24	5.45	10.5	8.5%
BetVictor	1.25	5.25	10.5	8.6%
Best of all books	1.28	5.76	13.6	2.9%
Average	1.25	5.32	11.3	7.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MillonariosAlianza Valledupar

Last 10#10Table position#171.37Points per game0.896Form pts · last 561.4Goals for · last 50.81.0Goals against · last 51.064Attack rating3650Defence rating5050Form rating5038H2H rating6281Goals model1954Overall rating46

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Nov 09:00 UTC

Millonarios

3W 6D 1L · goals 16:10 · per match 1.6 for, 1.0 against

8 Nov	A	Deportes Tolima	1-2	L
5 Nov	H	America de Cali	0-0	D
21 Oct	H	Once Caldas	1-1	D
17 Oct	H	Jaguares	4-1	W
9 Oct	A	Fortaleza FC	1-1	D
3 Oct	A	Barranquilla	1-1	D
30 Sep	A	Independiente Medellin	2-2	D
25 Sep	A	Atletico Nacional	1-1	D
19 Sep	H	Chico	3-0	W
14 Sep	A	Cucuta	2-1	W

Alianza Valledupar

4W 1D 5L · goals 12:16 · per match 1.2 for, 1.6 against

9 Nov	H	Llaneros	1-2	L
1 Nov	A	Independiente Medellin	1-2	L
28 Oct	A	Once Caldas	0-1	L
25 Oct	H	Internacional de Bogota	1-0	W
20 Oct	A	Deportivo Pasto	1-0	W
9 Oct	H	Águilas Doradas	2-2	D
3 Oct	A	Deportivo Cali	1-3	L
27 Sep	A	Jaguares	2-1	W
19 Sep	H	Santa Fe	1-4	L
16 Sep	A	Chico	2-1	W

Head to head

15Millonarios wins

6draws

6Alianza Valledupar wins

27 meetings · goals 45:26 · last 10: 5W 2D 3L for Millonarios

3 May 2026Primera A	Primera A	Alianza Valledupar2-2Millonarios
13 Sep 2025Primera A	Primera A	Alianza Valledupar3-0Millonarios
30 Mar 2025Primera A	Primera A	Millonarios2-0Alianza Valledupar
28 Jul 2024Primera A	Primera A	Alianza Valledupar2-1Millonarios
31 Jan 2024Primera A	Primera A	Millonarios1-1Alianza Valledupar
6 Oct 2023Copa Colombia	Copa Colombia	Alianza Valledupar1-2Millonarios
29 Sep 2023Copa Colombia	Copa Colombia	Millonarios2-0Alianza Valledupar
29 Jul 2023Primera A	Primera A	Alianza Valledupar1-0Millonarios
11 May 2023Primera A	Primera A	Millonarios3-1Alianza Valledupar
30 Oct 2022Primera A	Primera A	Alianza Valledupar2-4Millonarios

Primera A tableAperturaupdated 10 Nov 04:00 UTC

In the Primera A table, Millonarios sit 10th with 26 points from 19 games, while Alianza Valledupar are 17th with 17 points from 19.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	35:15	+20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	31:24	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29:25	+4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	25:15	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31:22	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27:17	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	29:22	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	26:26	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20:16	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31:23	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26:24	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20:25	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26:20	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	17:20	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22:27	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20:33	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13:27	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15:32	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	22:35	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15:32	-17	10

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg174%1.25X17%5.3228%11.3

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.30 → 1.25 -3.8%X4.87 → 5.32 +9.2%29.71 → 11.3 +16.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Betfair	1.73	2.10	5.4%
Betano	1.72	2.10	5.8%
Bet365	1.70	2.10	6.4%
1xBet	1.68	2.09	7.4%
Marathonbet	1.68	2.09	7.4%
Pinnacle	1.65	2.13	7.6%
BetVictor	1.66	2.05	9.0%
Best of all books	1.73	2.13	4.8%
Average	1.69	2.09	7.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.30	1.60	6.0%
Bet365	2.20	1.62	7.2%
1xBet	2.18	1.61	8.0%
Betano	2.15	1.62	8.2%
William Hill	2.05	1.67	8.7%
Marathonbet	2.18	1.59	8.8%
BetVictor	2.15	1.60	9.0%
Best of all books	2.30	1.67	3.4%
Average	2.17	1.62	7.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Millonarios 45%Draw 45%Alianza Valledupar 10%

The statistical model rates Millonarios at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Alianza Valledupar at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.25 | 5.32 | 11.34, which imply roughly 80% for a Millonarios win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera A table: Millonarios are 10th (26 pts, 31-23 goals), Alianza Valledupar 17th (17 pts, 13-27).

Over their last five matches, Millonarios averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Alianza Valledupar averaged 0.8 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Millonarios or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.25	5.32	11.3

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.04	3.65	1.13

Draw no bet

1	2
1.06	8.48

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.17	1.62

1st half

1	X	2
1.69	2.53	8.84

2nd half

1	X	2
1.56	2.95	7.93

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	1.76	21.0	74.6
HT X	3.82	7.54	20.6
HT 2	23.2	23.0	18.4

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.27	13.5	4.04

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	11.0
1.5	1.20	4.01
2.5	1.69	2.09
3.5	2.68	1.41
4.5	4.93	1.14
5.5	9.35	1.04
6.5	17.7	1.01
7.5	41.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.90
1	1.02	9.00
1.25	1.09	5.30
1.75	1.23	3.49
2	1.28	3.10
2.25	1.48	2.42
2.75	1.83	1.87
3	2.09	1.64
3.25	2.37	1.50
3.75	3.10	1.29
4	4.00	1.17
4.25	4.34	1.15
4.75	5.80	1.07
5	7.90	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2.25	2.72	1.40
-2	2.40	1.50
-1.75	2.02	1.71
-1.5	1.79	1.94
-1.25	1.57	2.24
-1	1.38	2.83

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.75	6.85	1.04
-3.5	5.76	1.10
-3.25	5.37	1.11
-3	5.00	1.13
-2.75	3.66	1.23
-2.5	3.04	1.32
-0.75	1.28	3.31
-0.5	1.26	3.74
-0.25	1.14	4.65
0	1.03	7.50
+0.5	1.05	11.0

Next Primera A matches

12 Nov	Águilas Doradas – Independiente Medellin
12 Nov	Deportivo Pereira – America de Cali
12 Nov	Deportivo Cali – Deportes Tolima
12 Nov	Internacional de Bogota – Santa Fe
12 Nov	Llaneros – Chico
12 Nov	Atletico Nacional – Once Caldas

All Primera A fixtures and the table

Latest Primera A results

10 Nov	Junior 2-0 Cucuta
9 Nov	Alianza Valledupar 1-2 Llaneros
8 Nov	Deportes Tolima 2-1 Millonarios
8 Nov	Jaguares 0-4 Bucaramanga
8 Nov	Santa Fe 5-0 Deportivo Pasto
8 Nov	America de Cali 0-0 Deportivo Cali