Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas• Primera A, Colombia

#12.4:1.021:0012/11 · Estadio Atanasio Girardot1.2:0.4#5

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.20B365X3.69PIN23.36PINMargin at best2.3%Books7Markets86Rating62 · 39Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Nov 12:30 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Bet365	2.20	3.30	3.20	7.0%
Betano	2.15	3.40	3.20	7.2%
Betfair	2.15	3.50	3.10	7.3%
Pinnacle	1.96	3.69	3.36	7.9%
1xBet	2.13	3.40	3.16	8.0%
Marathonbet	2.11	3.40	3.14	8.7%
William Hill	2.15	3.40	2.90	10.4%
Best of all books	2.20	3.69	3.36	2.3%
Average	2.12	3.44	3.15	7.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Atletico NacionalOnce Caldas

Last 10#1Table position#52.11Points per game1.7413Form pts · last 5112.4Goals for · last 51.21.0Goals against · last 50.467Attack rating3329Defence rating7154Form rating4671H2H rating2973Goals model2762Overall rating39

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 8 Nov 02:20 UTC

Atletico Nacional

7W 2D 1L · goals 22:10 · per match 2.2 for, 1.0 against

7 Nov	H	Deportivo Pereira	4-3	W
3 Nov	A	Bucaramanga	1-1	D
30 Oct	H	Santa Fe	2-0	W
25 Oct	H	Independiente Medellin	2-1	W
23 Oct	H	Deportivo Pasto	3-0	W
20 Oct	A	Cucuta	0-1	L
17 Oct	A	Chico	4-1	W
15 Oct	H	Independiente Medellin	3-2	W
8 Oct	H	Deportes Tolima	0-0	D
1 Oct	H	Junior	3-1	W

Once Caldas

5W 3D 2L · goals 11:7 · per match 1.1 for, 0.7 against

7 Nov	H	Águilas Doradas	1-0	W
2 Nov	A	Santa Fe	2-0	W
28 Oct	H	Alianza Valledupar	1-0	W
25 Oct	H	Deportivo Pereira	1-1	D
21 Oct	A	Millonarios	1-1	D
18 Oct	A	Independiente Medellin	2-0	W
10 Oct	H	Llaneros	1-0	W
4 Oct	A	Internacional de Bogota	1-1	D
26 Sep	H	Bucaramanga	1-3	L
20 Sep	A	Deportivo Pasto	0-1	L

Head to head

16Atletico Nacional wins

5draws

5Once Caldas wins

26 meetings · goals 32:14 · last 10: 5W 3D 2L for Atletico Nacional

1 May 2026Primera A	Primera A	Once Caldas1-0Atletico Nacional
22 Oct 2025Copa Colombia	Copa Colombia	Atletico Nacional2-0Once Caldas
10 Oct 2025Copa Colombia	Copa Colombia	Once Caldas0-1Atletico Nacional
12 Jul 2025Primera A	Primera A	Once Caldas1-3Atletico Nacional
19 Jun 2025Primera A	Primera A	Once Caldas1-2Atletico Nacional
2 Jun 2025Primera A	Primera A	Atletico Nacional0-0Once Caldas
26 Jan 2025Primera A	Primera A	Atletico Nacional4-0Once Caldas
27 Jul 2024Primera A	Primera A	Once Caldas2-0Atletico Nacional
1 Feb 2024Primera A	Primera A	Atletico Nacional1-1Once Caldas
17 Jul 2023Primera A	Primera A	Once Caldas1-1Atletico Nacional

Primera A tableAperturaupdated 10 Nov 04:00 UTC

In the Primera A table, Atletico Nacional sit 1st with 40 points from 19 games, while Once Caldas are 5th with 33 points from 19.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	35:15	+20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	31:24	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29:25	+4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	25:15	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31:22	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27:17	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	29:22	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	26:26	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20:16	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31:23	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26:24	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20:25	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26:20	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	17:20	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22:27	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20:33	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13:27	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15:32	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	22:35	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15:32	-17	10

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg144%2.12X27%3.44229%3.15

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.69 → 2.12 +25.4%X3.78 → 3.44 -9.0%24.56 → 3.15 -30.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Betfair	1.73	2.10	5.4%
Betano	1.72	2.10	5.8%
Bet365	1.70	2.10	6.4%
Pinnacle	1.80	1.95	6.8%
1xBet	1.70	2.06	7.4%
Marathonbet	1.70	2.06	7.4%
Best of all books	1.80	2.10	3.2%
Average	1.72	2.06	6.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.50	2.55	5.9%
William Hill	1.57	2.30	7.2%
Betano	1.57	2.27	7.7%
1xBet	1.58	2.23	8.1%
Bet365	1.57	2.25	8.1%
Marathonbet	1.58	2.20	8.7%
Best of all books	1.58	2.55	2.5%
Average	1.56	2.30	7.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Atletico Nacional 45%Draw 45%Once Caldas 10%

The statistical model rates Atletico Nacional at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Once Caldas at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.12 | 3.44 | 3.15, which imply roughly 47.2% for a Atletico Nacional win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera A table: Atletico Nacional are 1st (40 pts, 35-15 goals), Once Caldas 5th (33 pts, 31-22).

Over their last five matches, Atletico Nacional averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Once Caldas averaged 1.2 scored and 0.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Atletico Nacional.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.12	3.44	3.15

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.33	1.68	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
1.57	2.31

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.56	2.30

1st half

1	X	2
2.63	2.22	3.66

2nd half

1	X	2
2.42	2.56	3.29

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.35	12.9	28.6
HT X	5.38	5.48	7.42
HT 2	23.4	13.6	5.26

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.74	13.1	2.19

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	11.4
1.5	1.21	3.98
2.5	1.73	2.06
3.5	2.72	1.40
4.5	5.01	1.14
5.5	9.12	1.06
6.5	17.7	1.01
7.5	41.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	–	9.10
1	1.03	8.85
1.25	1.09	5.30
1.75	1.23	3.44
2	1.32	2.98
2.25	1.52	2.35
2.75	1.89	1.79
3	2.19	1.60
3.25	2.46	1.46
3.75	3.15	1.27
4	4.15	1.16
4.25	4.50	1.13
4.75	6.05	1.06
5	8.50	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	2.80	1.41
-0.75	2.36	1.52
-0.5	2.05	1.74
-0.25	1.81	1.92
0	1.53	2.38
+0.25	1.39	2.76

17 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	13.0	1.01
-3	9.90	1.01
-2.75	7.20	1.05
-2.5	8.03	1.04
-2.25	5.37	1.11
-2	7.07	1.06
-1.75	4.53	1.16
-1.5	3.86	1.22
-1.25	3.36	1.27
+0.5	1.31	3.31
+0.75	1.21	3.87
+1	1.10	5.57
+1.25	1.09	6.04
+1.5	1.08	6.53
+1.75	1.01	8.30
+2	1.01	10.0
+2.5	1.02	12.0

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.01	7.12
6.5	1.15	4.11
7.5	1.38	2.82
8.5	1.68	2.08
9.5	2.12	1.65
10.5	2.86	1.37
11.5	3.99	1.19
12.5	6.05	1.04

21 more lines

Line	Over	Under
5.75	1.02	6.82
6	1.03	6.52
6.25	1.09	4.96
6.75	1.17	3.89
7	1.19	3.68
7.25	1.28	3.10
7.75	1.41	2.58
8	1.47	2.43
8.25	1.58	2.20
8.75	1.78	1.93
9	1.92	1.84
9.25	2.01	1.72
9.75	2.29	1.54
10	2.52	1.44
10.25	2.66	1.39
10.75	3.14	1.28
11	3.62	1.20
11.25	3.80	1.18
11.75	4.62	1.11
12	5.63	1.06
12.25	5.84	1.05

Next Primera A matches

12 Nov	Águilas Doradas – Independiente Medellin
12 Nov	Deportivo Pereira – America de Cali
12 Nov	Deportivo Cali – Deportes Tolima
12 Nov	Internacional de Bogota – Santa Fe
12 Nov	Llaneros – Chico
12 Nov	Millonarios – Alianza Valledupar

All Primera A fixtures and the table

Latest Primera A results

10 Nov	Junior 2-0 Cucuta
9 Nov	Alianza Valledupar 1-2 Llaneros
8 Nov	Deportes Tolima 2-1 Millonarios
8 Nov	Jaguares 0-4 Bucaramanga
8 Nov	Santa Fe 5-0 Deportivo Pasto
8 Nov	America de Cali 0-0 Deportivo Cali