Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto• Primera A, Colombia

#11.6:1.001:0023/10 · Estadio Atanasio Girardot0.8:1.0#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.31BTNX5.50BFR211.2PINMargin at best3.4%Books7Markets63Rating69 · 31Exp. goals L52.2

Price board · 1X2captured 20 Oct 12:02 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.32	4.58	10.7	7.0%
Betano	1.31	4.90	9.75	7.0%
Dafabet	1.27	5.40	9.60	7.7%
Betfair	1.25	5.50	10.5	7.7%
1xBet	1.29	4.95	9.75	8.0%
Marathonbet	1.28	4.95	9.70	8.6%
William Hill	1.25	5.00	11.0	9.1%
Best of all books	1.32	5.50	11.0	3.0%
Average	1.28	5.04	10.1	7.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Atletico NacionalDeportivo Pasto

Last 10#1Table position#32.11Points per game1.7911Form pts · last 571.6Goals for · last 50.81.0Goals against · last 51.067Attack rating3350Defence rating5050Form rating5093H2H rating783Goals model1769Overall rating31

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 23:10 UTC

Atletico Nacional

6W 3D 1L · goals 20:10 · per match 2.0 for, 1.0 against

17 Oct	A	Chico	4-1	W
15 Oct	H	Independiente Medellin	3-2	W
8 Oct	H	Deportes Tolima	0-0	D
1 Oct	H	Junior	3-1	W
26 Sep	H	Chapecoense-sc	1-1	D
25 Sep	H	Millonarios	1-1	D
21 Sep	A	Llaneros	0-2	L
17 Sep	A	Internacional de Bogota	3-2	W
13 Sep	H	Águilas Doradas	2-0	W
8 Sep	H	Deportivo Cali	3-0	W

Deportivo Pasto

2W 3D 5L · goals 7:14 · per match 0.7 for, 1.4 against

20 Oct	H	Alianza Valledupar	0-1	L
4 Oct	H	Fortaleza FC	0-0	D
25 Sep	A	Chico	0-3	L
20 Sep	H	Once Caldas	1-0	W
15 Sep	A	America de Cali	1-0	W
10 Sep	H	Independiente Medellin	1-4	L
5 Sep	A	Cucuta	2-2	D
31 Aug	H	Deportivo Pereira	1-2	L
28 Aug	A	Internacional de Bogota	1-1	D
23 Aug	H	Llaneros	0-1	L

Head to head

18Atletico Nacional wins

4draws

2Deportivo Pasto wins

24 meetings · goals 39:16 · last 10: 8W 2D 0L for Atletico Nacional

29 Mar 2026Primera A	Primera A	Deportivo Pasto1-2Atletico Nacional
18 Oct 2025Primera A	Primera A	Deportivo Pasto2-2Atletico Nacional
30 Apr 2025Primera A	Primera A	Atletico Nacional3-0Deportivo Pasto
5 Dec 2024Primera A	Primera A	Atletico Nacional2-1Deportivo Pasto
24 Nov 2024Primera A	Primera A	Deportivo Pasto0-1Atletico Nacional
6 Oct 2024Primera A	Primera A	Deportivo Pasto1-2Atletico Nacional
24 Mar 2024Primera A	Primera A	Atletico Nacional1-0Deportivo Pasto
25 Aug 2023Primera A	Primera A	Atletico Nacional2-0Deportivo Pasto
18 Jun 2023Primera A	Primera A	Atletico Nacional3-2Deportivo Pasto
20 May 2023Primera A	Primera A	Deportivo Pasto1-1Atletico Nacional

Primera A tableAperturaupdated 20 Oct 05:10 UTC

In the Primera A table, Atletico Nacional sit 1st with 40 points from 19 games, while Deportivo Pasto are 3rd with 34 points from 19.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	35:15	+20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	31:24	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29:25	+4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	25:15	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31:22	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27:17	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	29:22	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	26:26	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20:16	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31:23	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26:24	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20:25	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26:20	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	17:20	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22:27	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20:33	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13:27	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15:32	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	22:35	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15:32	-17	10

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg172%1.29X19%4.9529%10.2

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.20 → 1.29 +7.5%X5.87 → 4.95 -15.7%213.5 → 10.2 -24.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.65	2.21	5.9%
Betfair	1.60	2.30	6.0%
Betano	1.62	2.25	6.2%
1xBet	1.62	2.19	7.4%
Marathonbet	1.62	2.19	7.4%
Best of all books	1.65	2.30	4.1%
Average	1.62	2.23	6.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	2.20	1.62	7.2%
Betano	1.98	1.75	7.6%
1xBet	2.02	1.71	8.0%
Marathonbet	2.02	1.69	8.7%
Best of all books	2.20	1.75	2.6%
Average	2.05	1.69	7.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Atletico Nacional 45%Draw 45%Deportivo Pasto 10%

The statistical model rates Atletico Nacional at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Deportivo Pasto at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.29 | 4.95 | 10.24, which imply roughly 77.5% for a Atletico Nacional win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera A table: Atletico Nacional are 1st (40 pts, 35-15 goals), Deportivo Pasto 3rd (34 pts, 29-25).

Over their last five matches, Atletico Nacional averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Deportivo Pasto averaged 0.8 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Atletico Nacional.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.28	5.04	10.1

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.04	3.53	1.14

Draw no bet

1	2
1.07	7.83

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.06	1.69

1st half

1	X	2
1.70	2.51	8.28

2nd half

1	X	2
1.55	3.03	7.86

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	1.79	21.3	71.3
HT X	3.80	7.10	19.5
HT 2	23.3	22.7	18.5

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.26	13.8	4.10

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	11.2
1.5	1.18	4.18
2.5	1.62	2.23
3.5	2.47	1.47
4.5	4.30	1.17
5.5	7.30	1.05
6.5	10.5	1.03

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	–	9.20
1.25	1.08	5.50
1.75	1.20	3.70
2	1.25	3.30
2.25	1.45	2.59
2.75	1.77	1.96
3	1.98	1.74
3.25	2.21	1.57
3.75	2.81	1.33
4	3.50	1.22
4.25	3.84	1.18
4.75	5.10	1.10
5	6.80	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2.25	2.69	1.39
-2	2.44	1.49
-1.75	2.06	1.69
-1.5	1.84	1.90
-1.25	1.63	2.12
-1	1.43	2.61

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	9.25	1.01
-3.75	6.55	1.05
-3.5	5.47	1.10
-3.25	4.90	1.11
-3	4.60	1.13
-2.75	3.48	1.22
-2.5	3.05	1.32
-0.75	1.33	2.95
-0.5	1.31	3.36
-0.25	1.15	4.30
0	1.04	7.10

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.67	2.12

Next Primera A matches

20 Oct	Deportivo Pereira – Chico
20 Oct	Internacional de Bogota – Fortaleza FC
20 Oct	Cucuta – Atletico Nacional
21 Oct	Millonarios – Once Caldas
21 Oct	Llaneros – Deportivo Cali
22 Oct	Santa Fe – Jaguares

All Primera A fixtures and the table

Latest Primera A results

20 Oct	Deportivo Pasto 0-1 Alianza Valledupar
19 Oct	Deportivo Cali 0-0 Junior
18 Oct	Llaneros 1-0 Santa Fe
18 Oct	Bucaramanga 1-1 America de Cali
18 Oct	Águilas Doradas 2-1 Deportes Tolima
18 Oct	Independiente Medellin 0-2 Once Caldas