Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas• Primera A, Colombia

#111.2:1.401:10Tomorrow · Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin0.8:1.0#5

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.97PINX3.40B36523.90B365Margin at best5.8%Books6Markets77Rating57 · 43Exp. goals L52.2

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 20:15 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.99	3.43	3.90	5.0%
Bet365	1.95	3.40	3.90	6.3%
1xBet	1.93	3.38	3.77	7.9%
BetVictor	1.95	3.40	3.60	8.5%
Marathonbet	1.91	3.38	3.75	8.6%
William Hill	1.95	3.20	3.70	9.6%
Best of all books	1.99	3.43	3.90	5.0%
Average	1.95	3.37	3.77	7.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas

Last 10#11Table position#51.37Points per game1.744Form pts · last 571.2Goals for · last 50.81.4Goals against · last 51.060Attack rating4042Defence rating5850Form rating5071H2H rating2945Goals model5557Overall rating43

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 04:10 UTC

Independiente Medellin

4W 2D 4L · goals 18:15 · per match 1.8 for, 1.5 against

15 Oct	A	Atletico Nacional	2-3	L
12 Oct	A	America de Cali	2-1	W
6 Oct	H	Santa Fe	0-1	L
30 Sep	H	Millonarios	2-2	D
27 Sep	A	Junior	0-2	L
22 Sep	H	Jaguares	2-1	W
18 Sep	A	Bucaramanga	2-2	D
12 Sep	A	Chico	1-2	L
10 Sep	A	Deportivo Pasto	4-1	W
4 Sep	A	Deportivo Pereira	3-0	W

Once Caldas

4W 2D 4L · goals 9:11 · per match 0.9 for, 1.1 against

10 Oct	H	Llaneros	1-0	W
4 Oct	A	Internacional de Bogota	1-1	D
26 Sep	H	Bucaramanga	1-3	L
20 Sep	A	Deportivo Pasto	0-1	L
16 Sep	H	Deportes Tolima	1-0	W
13 Sep	H	Deportivo Cali	1-2	L
10 Sep	H	Alianza Valledupar	1-0	W
5 Sep	A	Chico	0-2	L
2 Sep	A	Fortaleza FC	2-1	W
24 Aug	A	Junior	1-1	D

Head to head

10Independiente Medellin wins

10draws

4Once Caldas wins

24 meetings · goals 40:28 · last 10: 4W 4D 2L for Independiente Medellin

3 Apr 2026Primera A	Primera A	Once Caldas1-1Independiente Medellin
13 Oct 2025Primera A	Primera A	Once Caldas1-5Independiente Medellin
20 Apr 2025Primera A	Primera A	Independiente Medellin2-0Once Caldas
28 Sep 2024Primera A	Primera A	Once Caldas0-2Independiente Medellin
17 Mar 2024Primera A	Primera A	Independiente Medellin1-2Once Caldas
1 Oct 2023Primera A	Primera A	Once Caldas2-2Independiente Medellin
11 May 2023Primera A	Primera A	Independiente Medellin2-2Once Caldas
24 Jul 2022Primera A	Primera A	Independiente Medellin1-1Once Caldas
5 Feb 2022Primera A	Primera A	Once Caldas2-1Independiente Medellin
18 Sep 2021Primera A	Primera A	Independiente Medellin3-1Once Caldas

Primera A tableAperturaupdated 17 Oct 22:01 UTC

In the Primera A table, Independiente Medellin sit 11th with 26 points from 19 games, while Once Caldas are 5th with 33 points from 19.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	35:15	+20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	31:24	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29:25	+4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	25:15	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31:22	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27:17	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	29:22	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	26:26	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20:16	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31:23	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26:24	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20:25	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26:20	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	17:20	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22:27	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20:33	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13:27	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15:32	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	22:35	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15:32	-17	10

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg148%1.94X28%3.36225%3.76

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.92 → 1.94 +1.0%X3.36 → 3.36 0.0%23.81 → 3.76 -1.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.93	1.91	4.2%
Bet365	1.90	1.90	5.3%
1xBet	1.87	1.86	7.2%
Marathonbet	1.87	1.86	7.2%
BetVictor	1.86	1.81	9.0%
Best of all books	1.93	1.91	4.2%
Average	1.89	1.87	6.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.75	2.00	7.1%
1xBet	1.73	2.00	7.8%
Bet365	1.73	2.00	7.8%
BetVictor	1.73	2.00	7.8%
Marathonbet	1.73	1.97	8.6%
Best of all books	1.75	2.00	7.1%
Average	1.73	1.99	7.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Independiente Medellin 45%Draw 45%Once Caldas 10%

The statistical model rates Independiente Medellin at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Once Caldas at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.94 | 3.36 | 3.76, which imply roughly 51.5% for a Independiente Medellin win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera A table: Independiente Medellin are 11th (26 pts, 26-24 goals), Once Caldas 5th (33 pts, 31-22).

Over their last five matches, Independiente Medellin averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Once Caldas averaged 0.8 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Independiente Medellin or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.95	3.37	3.77

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.24	1.77	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
1.42	2.70

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.73	1.99

1st half

1	X	2
2.53	2.13	4.30

2nd half

1	X	2
2.26	2.46	3.86

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.97	14.0	34.7
HT X	4.90	5.17	8.27
HT 2	25.0	15.0	6.30

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.67	9.25	2.46

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	9.50
1.5	1.27	3.47
2.5	1.89	1.87
3.5	3.19	1.31
4.5	6.21	1.09
5.5	12.5	1.04
6.5	26.0	1.01
7.5	50.5	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.02	7.90
1	1.03	7.40
1.25	1.14	4.40
1.75	1.31	2.93
2	1.42	2.61
2.25	1.66	2.12
2.75	2.11	1.66
3	2.49	1.46
3.25	2.74	1.35
3.75	3.68	1.20
4	4.95	1.11
4.25	5.30	1.09
5	9.40	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	3.14	1.32
-1	2.74	1.40
-0.75	2.20	1.60
-0.5	1.97	1.81
-0.25	1.67	2.10
0	1.42	2.72

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	6.60	1.05
-2.25	6.50	1.07
-2	6.20	1.08
-1.75	4.27	1.17
-1.5	3.46	1.27
+0.25	1.31	3.21
+0.5	1.27	3.78
+0.75	1.15	4.58
+1	1.04	6.85
+1.25	1.03	7.30
+1.5	1.02	7.70

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.10	4.71
7.5	1.29	3.06
8.5	1.56	2.22
9.5	1.98	1.75
10.5	2.53	1.43
11.5	3.45	1.23
12.5	5.11	1.08

20 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.02	6.98
6.25	1.08	5.19
6.75	1.12	4.48
7	1.14	4.25
7.25	1.22	3.50
7.75	1.33	2.88
8	1.37	2.72
8.25	1.48	2.42
8.75	1.65	2.10
9	1.80	1.97
9.25	1.85	1.85
9.75	2.09	1.66
10	2.26	1.55
10.25	2.39	1.49
10.75	2.78	1.36
11	3.14	1.27
11.25	3.30	1.25
11.75	3.96	1.16
12	4.72	1.10
12.25	4.91	1.09