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Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios• Primera A, Colombia

#111.6:1.42-2FT30/09 · Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin1.6:0.8#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.25BTNX3.641XB23.35PINMargin at best1.8%Books14Markets79Rating46 · 55Exp. goals L52.7

Price board · 1X2captured 8 Aug 20:15 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Bet3652.503.202.886.0%
Pinnacle2.623.092.796.4%
Superbet2.553.152.806.7%
Unibet2.453.202.886.8%
Betano2.573.052.827.2%
10Bet2.503.202.787.2%
Betfair2.503.302.707.3%
1xBet2.583.042.767.9%
Marathonbet2.583.042.767.9%
Dafabet2.503.152.758.1%
BetVictor2.503.202.708.3%
888Sport2.502.902.8010.2%
William Hill2.502.902.8010.2%
SBO2.322.922.5316.9%
Best of all books2.623.302.883.2%
Average2.513.102.778.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 52 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Independiente MedellinMillonarios
Last 10#11Table position#101.37Points per game1.374Form pts · last 571.6Goals for · last 51.61.4Goals against · last 50.850Attack rating5036Defence rating6444Form rating5662H2H rating3848Goals model5246Overall rating55

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 04:10 UTC

Independiente Medellin

4W 2D 4L · goals 18:15 · per match 1.8 for, 1.5 against

15 OctAAtletico Nacional2-3L
12 OctAAmerica de Cali2-1W
6 OctHSanta Fe0-1L
30 SepHMillonarios2-2D
27 SepAJunior0-2L
22 SepHJaguares2-1W
18 SepABucaramanga2-2D
12 SepAChico1-2L
10 SepADeportivo Pasto4-1W
4 SepADeportivo Pereira3-0W

Millonarios

3W 6D 1L · goals 18:12 · per match 1.8 for, 1.2 against

17 OctHJaguares4-1W
9 OctAFortaleza FC1-1D
3 OctABarranquilla1-1D
30 SepAIndependiente Medellin2-2D
25 SepAAtletico Nacional1-1D
19 SepHChico3-0W
14 SepACucuta2-1W
11 SepHDeportivo Cali1-1D
6 SepADeportivo Pereira1-1D
3 SepASanta Fe2-3L

Head to head

12Independiente Medellin wins
8draws
9Millonarios wins

29 meetings · goals 32:36 · last 10: 3W 4D 3L for Independiente Medellin

2 Feb 2026Primera APrimera AMillonarios0-0Independiente Medellin
3 Aug 2025Primera APrimera AIndependiente Medellin1-0Millonarios
16 Feb 2025Primera APrimera AMillonarios0-1Independiente Medellin
19 Jul 2024Primera APrimera AIndependiente Medellin1-1Millonarios
21 Jan 2024Primera APrimera AMillonarios5-0Independiente Medellin
1 Dec 2023Primera APrimera AIndependiente Medellin2-1Millonarios
26 Nov 2023Primera APrimera AMillonarios1-0Independiente Medellin
19 Sep 2023Primera APrimera AIndependiente Medellin1-1Millonarios
17 Jun 2023Primera APrimera AMillonarios2-1Independiente Medellin
21 May 2023Primera APrimera AIndependiente Medellin2-2Millonarios

Primera A tableAperturaupdated 19 Oct 05:40 UTC

In the Primera A table, Independiente Medellin sit 11th with 26 points from 19 games, while Millonarios are 10th with 26 points from 19.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19131535:15+2040
2Junior19112631:24+735
3Deportivo Pasto19104529:25+434
4America de Cali19103625:15+1033
5Once Caldas1989231:22+933
6Deportes Tolima1987427:17+1031
7Santa Fe1978429:22+729
8Internacional de Bogota1977526:26028
9Deportivo Cali1976620:16+427
10Millonarios1975731:23+826
11Independiente Medellin1975726:24+226
12Águilas Doradas1975720:25-526
13Bucaramanga1958626:20+623
14Llaneros19410517:20-322
15Fortaleza FC1957722:27-522
16Jaguares19531120:33-1318
17Alianza Valledupar1938813:27-1417
18Chico19521215:32-1717
19Cucuta1937922:35-1316
20Deportivo Pereira19171115:32-1710

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg142%2.21X28%3.30230%3.09

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

27 Sep 00:0129 Sep 21:511 2.20X 3.282 3.12
12.20 → 2.20 0.0%X3.31 → 3.28 -0.9%23.10 → 3.12 +0.6%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
10Bet2.101.735.4%
Betfair2.101.735.4%
Bet3652.081.735.9%
Betano2.051.755.9%
Pinnacle2.051.755.9%
1xBet2.041.746.5%
Marathonbet2.041.746.5%
Superbet2.021.747.0%
888Sport2.051.707.6%
BetVictor1.981.719.0%
Unibet2.051.669.0%
Best of all books2.101.754.8%
Average2.051.736.7%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
10Bet1.801.956.8%
888Sport1.732.007.8%
William Hill1.732.007.8%
1xBet1.761.967.8%
Bet3651.801.917.9%
BetVictor1.781.938.0%
Superbet1.761.958.1%
Betano1.722.008.1%
Marathonbet1.761.938.6%
Unibet1.791.889.1%
Best of all books1.802.005.6%
Average1.761.958.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Independiente Medellin 10%Draw 45%Millonarios 45%

The statistical model rated Independiente Medellin at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Millonarios at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.21 | 3.30 | 3.09, which imply roughly 30.3% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera A table: Independiente Medellin are 11th (26 pts, 26-24 goals), Millonarios 10th (26 pts, 31-23).

Over their last five matches, Independiente Medellin averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Millonarios averaged 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Millonarios.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Independiente Medellin

4-2-3-1

Coach: L. Perea

Goalkeeper

  • 25E. Chaux

Defence

  • 30H. Palacios
  • 39L. Escorcia
  • 19A. Simarra
  • 26E. Mena

Midfield

  • 14B. Perlaza
  • 6D. Moreno
  • 11Y. González
  • 21A. Martegani
  • 20J. Montaño

Attack

  • 32C. Lucumi
Substitutes (9)
  • 10D. Cataño
  • 28Andres Solano
  • 47Jaidinson Córdoba Urrutia
  • 24N. Erazo
  • 1S. Ichazo
  • 4K. Mantilla
  • 31D. Moreno
  • 80Heider Vallecilla
  • 5J. Varela

Millonarios

5-3-2

Coach: A. Gamero

Goalkeeper

  • 1J. Burrai

Defence

  • 55Leonai
  • 4S. Barreiro
  • 30S. del Castillo
  • 20D. Banguero
  • 13F. Chaverra

Midfield

  • 17J. Arias
  • 28S. Vega
  • 23L. Castro

Attack

  • 10D. Ruiz
  • 7J. Cuadrado
Substitutes (9)
  • 43C. Uparela
  • 12J. Aguirre
  • 24J. Angulo
  • 11A. Estupiñán
  • 26A. Llinás
  • 35Sebastián Mosquera
  • 25D. Quintero
  • 14D. Silva
  • 22Sebastián Valencia Isaza

Match Statistics

Independiente MedellinMillonarios
328Passes accurate338
4Shots insidebox3
2Shots outsidebox6
1Blocked Shots2
10Free Kicks12
3Shots on Goal4
3Goalkeeper Saves1
2Shots off Goal3
398Total passes399
6Total Shots9
2Yellow Cards3
2Corner Kicks3
0Offsides1
12Fouls13
0Red Cards0
47%Ball Possession53%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.513.102.77

Double chance

1XX212
1.401.471.32

Draw no bet

12
1.791.93

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.761.95

1st half

1X2
3.112.053.33

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.998.102.08

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.058.24
1.51.333.10
2.52.051.73
3.53.541.26
4.56.991.07
5.514.21.02
6.527.61.01
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.046.75
11.066.25
1.251.183.90
1.751.412.72
21.532.34
2.251.791.95
2.752.301.55
32.811.38
3.253.121.28
3.754.231.16
45.771.08
4.256.081.06
510.01.01

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.753.031.33
-0.52.451.50
-0.252.151.65
01.801.95
+0.251.562.31
+0.51.422.71
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.510.81.03
-29.451.01
-1.756.601.07
-1.55.031.13
-1.254.581.15
-14.221.19
+0.751.293.31
+11.154.69
+1.251.125.13
+1.51.115.50
+1.751.046.95
+2.51.0211.0

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
3.51.382.70
4.51.681.92
5.52.451.46
6.51.871.87

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
5.51.085.80
6.51.144.56
7.51.303.12
8.51.562.26
9.51.951.78
10.52.521.46
11.53.371.26
12.54.671.13
13.56.771.04
21 more lines
LineOverUnder
6.751.085.12
71.104.88
7.251.173.94
7.751.263.20
81.303.02
8.251.392.65
8.751.542.27
91.762.02
9.251.731.99
9.751.941.77
102.081.67
10.252.191.59
10.752.521.44
112.801.35
11.252.951.31
11.753.491.22
124.081.15
12.254.261.14
12.755.181.08
136.361.03
13.256.581.03

Next Primera A matches

20 OctDeportivo Pasto – Alianza Valledupar
20 OctDeportivo Pereira – Chico
20 OctCucuta – Atletico Nacional
21 OctMillonarios – Once Caldas
21 OctLlaneros – Deportivo Cali
22 OctSanta Fe – Jaguares

All Primera A fixtures and the table

Latest Primera A results

19 OctDeportivo Cali 0-0 Junior
18 OctLlaneros 1-0 Santa Fe
18 OctBucaramanga 1-1 America de Cali
18 OctÁguilas Doradas 2-1 Deportes Tolima
18 OctIndependiente Medellin 0-2 Once Caldas
17 OctMillonarios 4-1 Jaguares