Paide vs Trans Narva• Meistriliiga, Estonia

#21.6:1.02-1FTToday · Paide linnastaadion, Paide1.0:1.6#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.53PINX4.24PIN25.521XBMargin at best7.1%Books6Markets72Rating67 · 33Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Oct 12:25 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.54	4.32	5.45	6.4%
1xBet	1.47	4.10	5.52	10.5%
Bet365	1.50	4.20	4.75	11.5%
Marathonbet	1.46	4.10	5.30	11.8%
William Hill	1.50	3.90	5.00	12.3%
BetVictor	1.44	3.60	4.40	19.9%
Best of all books	1.54	4.32	5.52	6.2%
Average	1.49	4.04	5.07	11.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PaideTrans Narva

Last 10#2Table position#101.78Points per game0.639Form pts · last 531.6Goals for · last 51.01.0Goals against · last 51.662Attack rating3862Defence rating3875Form rating2562H2H rating3887Goals model1367Overall rating33

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 07:31 UTC

Paide

6W 0D 4L · goals 17:13 · per match 1.7 for, 1.3 against

14 Oct	H	Tammeka	2-1	W
11 Oct	A	FC Levadia Tallinn	0-1	L
19 Sep	A	Nõmme United	3-1	W
16 Sep	H	Vaprus	2-0	W
13 Sep	H	Laagri	1-2	L
9 Sep	A	Tammeka	2-0	W
6 Sep	H	FC Levadia Tallinn	0-2	L
30 Aug	A	Flora Tallinn	2-1	W
26 Aug	A	FC Levadia Tallinn	1-4	L
23 Aug	H	Nõmme United	4-1	W

Trans Narva

1W 4D 5L · goals 9:18 · per match 0.9 for, 1.8 against

14 Oct	H	Kuressaare	0-1	L
10 Oct	A	Vaprus	2-2	D
20 Sep	H	FC Levadia Tallinn	1-1	D
12 Sep	A	Kalju Nomme	0-2	L
8 Sep	H	Flora Tallinn	2-2	D
5 Sep	A	Kuressaare	1-3	L
30 Aug	H	Tammeka	0-2	L
26 Aug	H	Kalju Nomme	2-0	W
21 Aug	A	FC Levadia Tallinn	0-4	L
16 Aug	H	Paide	1-1	D

Head to head

25Paide wins

16draws

24Trans Narva wins

65 meetings · goals 79:77 · last 10: 4W 2D 4L for Paide

16 Aug 2026Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Trans Narva1-1Paide
20 May 2026Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Trans Narva1-0Paide
15 Mar 2026Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Paide1-0Trans Narva
7 Feb 2026Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Trans Narva1-1Paide
27 Sep 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Trans Narva2-3Paide
20 Jul 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Paide2-0Trans Narva
31 May 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Paide0-1Trans Narva
15 Mar 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Trans Narva1-0Paide
18 Jan 2025Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Paide1-2Trans Narva
29 Sep 2024Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Trans Narva0-3Paide

Meistriliiga tableMeistriliigaupdated 18 Oct 17:50 UTC

In the Meistriliiga table, Paide sit 2nd with 57 points from 32 games, while Trans Narva are 10th with 20 points from 32.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	25	6	1	87:22	+65	81
2	Paide	32	17	6	9	52:39	+13	57
3	Flora Tallinn	31	18	1	12	60:44	+16	55
4	Kalju Nomme	32	15	6	11	54:33	+21	51
5	Tammeka	31	15	2	14	42:49	-7	47
6	Laagri	32	14	2	16	45:47	-2	44
7	Vaprus	32	10	6	16	43:63	-20	36
8	Kuressaare	32	10	5	17	34:51	-17	35
9	Nõmme United	32	10	1	21	50:74	-24	31
10	Trans Narva	32	5	5	22	25:70	-45	20

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg160%1.49X22%4.04218%5.07

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.55 → 1.48 -4.5%X4.10 → 4.01 -2.2%24.92 → 5.05 +2.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.55	2.40	6.2%
Bet365	1.57	2.35	6.2%
1xBet	1.50	2.28	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.50	2.28	10.5%
BetVictor	1.43	1.99	20.2%
Best of all books	1.57	2.40	5.4%
Average	1.51	2.26	10.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.62	2.20	7.2%
Bet365	1.67	2.10	7.5%
1xBet	1.60	2.18	8.4%
Marathonbet	1.60	2.14	9.2%
BetVictor	1.47	1.93	19.8%
Best of all books	1.67	2.20	5.3%
Average	1.59	2.11	10.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Paide 45%Draw 45%Trans Narva 10%

The statistical model rated Paide at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Trans Narva at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.49 | 4.04 | 5.07, which imply roughly 67.1% for a Paide win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Meistriliiga table: Paide are 2nd (57 pts, 52-39 goals), Trans Narva 10th (20 pts, 25-70).

Over their last five matches, Paide averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Trans Narva averaged 1 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Paide or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.49	4.04	5.07

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.11	2.32	1.15

Draw no bet

1	2
1.19	3.77

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.59	2.11

1st half

1	X	2
1.95	2.43	5.15

2nd half

1	X	2
1.81	2.84	4.81

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.14	16.4	44.3
HT X	4.33	6.73	11.8
HT 2	21.7	17.0	8.93

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.45	17.3	2.76

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	15.3
1.5	1.13	4.33
2.5	1.51	2.26
3.5	2.27	1.51
4.5	3.78	1.17
5.5	6.68	1.04
6.5	10.5	1.02
7.5	17.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	10.0
1.25	1.06	6.30
1.75	1.15	4.30
2	1.18	3.84
2.25	1.36	2.82
2.75	1.62	2.04
3	1.80	1.81
3.25	2.03	1.63
3.75	2.69	1.39
4	3.34	1.24
4.25	3.68	1.20
4.75	5.00	1.10
5	6.90	1.04
5.25	7.30	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.74	1.39
-1.5	2.28	1.50
-1.25	2.03	1.62
-1	1.80	1.86
-0.75	1.60	2.10
-0.5	1.48	2.33

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	8.70	1.01
-3	7.80	1.02
-2.75	5.43	1.11
-2.5	4.25	1.17
-2.25	3.89	1.20
-2	3.52	1.24
-0.25	1.35	2.92
0	1.19	4.07
+0.25	1.15	4.57
+0.5	1.18	4.80
+0.75	1.07	6.98
+1	1.02	9.20
+1.5	1.01	10.0

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.05	5.97
7.5	1.19	3.68
8.5	1.42	2.57
9.5	1.74	1.99
10.5	2.17	1.60
11.5	2.86	1.34
12.5	4.00	1.16
13.5	5.98	1.05

7 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.07	5.46
8	1.25	3.30
9	1.53	2.29
10	1.97	1.79
11	2.58	1.42
12	3.66	1.20
13	5.58	1.06

Latest Meistriliiga results

18 Oct	Flora Tallinn 2-0 Tammeka
18 Oct	Kuressaare 0-2 FC Levadia Tallinn
18 Oct	Laagri 2-0 Vaprus
17 Oct	Nõmme United 3-0 Kalju Nomme
15 Oct	Flora Tallinn 1-3 FC Levadia Tallinn
14 Oct	Paide 2-1 Tammeka