Mercedes vs 
Lugano• Primera C, Argentina
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 12 Oct 16:09 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 2.80 | 3.15 | 7.5% |
| 1xBet | 2.46 | 2.64 | 3.09 | 10.9% |
| Betano | 2.40 | 2.70 | 3.10 | 11.0% |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 2.80 | 2.90 | 11.0% |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.62 | 3.00 | 11.5% |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 2.88 | 2.88 | 12.0% |
| Pinnacle | 2.41 | 2.55 | 3.15 | 12.5% |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 2.55 | 2.75 | 20.0% |
| Best of all books | 2.50 | 2.88 | 3.15 | 6.5% |
| Average | 2.42 | 2.69 | 3.00 | 11.9% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 03:21 UTC
Mercedes
4W 2D 4L · goals 8:12 · per match 0.8 for, 1.2 against
| 12 Oct | H | Lugano | 1-0 | W |
| 5 Oct | A | Deportivo Paraguayo | 1-1 | D |
| 25 Sep | H | Puerto Nuevo | 1-0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Leandro N. Alem | 1-0 | W |
| 10 Sep | H | Deportivo Español | 1-1 | D |
| 4 Sep | H | Defensores de Cambaceres | 0-3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Juventud Unida | 1-4 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Sacachispas | 2-0 | W |
| 18 Aug | A | Claypole | 0-1 | L |
| 8 Aug | A | Argentino Rosario | 0-2 | L |
Lugano
2W 5D 3L · goals 8:9 · per match 0.8 for, 0.9 against
| 12 Oct | A | Mercedes | 0-1 | L |
| 4 Oct | H | Argentino Rosario | 2-3 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Deportivo Paraguayo | 1-1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Estrella Del Sur | 1-1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Leones de Rosario | 0-0 | D |
| 6 Sep | A | Puerto Nuevo | 1-0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Berazategui | 1-1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | Leandro N. Alem | 1-0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | Lujan | 1-2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | Victoriano Arenas | 0-0 | D |
Head to head
10 meetings · goals 9:14 · last 10: 2W 3D 5L for Mercedes
| 14 Jun 2026Primera C | Primera C | Lugano1-0Mercedes |
| 17 Aug 2025Primera C | Primera C | Lugano0-1Mercedes |
| 2 May 2025Primera C | Primera C | Mercedes1-1Lugano |
| 26 Oct 2024Primera C | Primera C | Mercedes2-2Lugano |
| 27 May 2024Primera C | Primera C | Lugano0-0Mercedes |
| 9 Oct 2023Primera D | Primera D | Mercedes2-1Lugano |
| 2 Jul 2023Primera D | Primera D | Lugano2-1Mercedes |
| 1 Apr 2023Primera D | Primera D | Lugano2-1Mercedes |
| 9 Sep 2022Primera D | Primera D | Mercedes1-2Lugano |
| 25 Jun 2022Primera D | Primera D | Lugano3-0Mercedes |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.6% margin.
1X2 since open average price
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 7.8% |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 1.44 | 7.9% |
| Pinnacle | 2.83 | 1.34 | 10.0% |
| 1xBet | 2.70 | 1.36 | 10.6% |
| Best of all books | 2.83 | 1.44 | 4.8% |
| Average | 2.72 | 1.39 | 9.0% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 1.53 | 7.4% |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 1.55 | 8.0% |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 1.65 | 8.2% |
| 1xBet | 2.18 | 1.58 | 9.2% |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 1.45 | 20.2% |
| Best of all books | 2.38 | 1.65 | 2.6% |
| Average | 2.18 | 1.55 | 10.3% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Mercedes at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Lugano at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.41 | 2.73 | 3.00, which imply roughly 41.5% for a Mercedes win versus the model's 45%.
Over their last five matches, Mercedes averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Lugano averaged 1 scored and 1 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Mercedes or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.42 | 2.69 | 3.00 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.31 | 1.45 | 1.37 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 1.63 | 2.01 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 2.18 | 1.55 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.21 | 1.80 | 3.96 |
First team to score
| Home | No Goal | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | 6.00 | 2.20 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.09 | 5.93 |
| 1.5 | 1.55 | 2.19 |
| 2.5 | 2.72 | 1.39 |
| 3.5 | 5.48 | 1.10 |
| 4.5 | 12.0 | 1.02 |
| 5.5 | 17.0 | – |
10 more lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | 1.12 | 4.75 |
| 1 | 1.17 | 4.05 |
| 1.25 | 1.38 | 2.73 |
| 1.75 | 1.71 | 1.87 |
| 2 | 2.05 | 1.64 |
| 2.25 | 2.43 | 1.46 |
| 2.75 | 3.34 | 1.24 |
| 3 | 4.65 | 1.12 |
| 3.25 | 5.06 | 1.10 |
| 4 | 9.70 | 1.01 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -0.75 | 2.96 | 1.34 |
| -0.5 | 2.38 | 1.53 |
| -0.25 | 1.99 | 1.66 |
| 0 | 1.63 | 2.02 |
| +0.25 | 1.44 | 2.54 |
| +0.5 | 1.34 | 3.04 |
7 more lines
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5.48 | 1.12 |
| -1.25 | 4.88 | 1.15 |
| -1 | 4.27 | 1.17 |
| +0.75 | 1.23 | 3.66 |
| +1 | 1.09 | 6.05 |
| +1.25 | 1.10 | 6.09 |
| +1.5 | 1.08 | 6.80 |
Corners 2-Way
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 1.74 | 2.00 |
| 8 | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| 8.5 | 2.05 | 1.72 |
Next Primera C matches
| 18 Oct | Argentino Rosario – Deportivo Muñiz |
| 19 Oct | Sportivo Barracas – Sacachispas |
| 19 Oct | Lugano – Canuelas |