Joinville vs Hercílio Luz• Copa Santa Catarina, Brazil

2.4:0.418:00Today1.4:0.8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.44DAFX3.40B36522.80DAFMargin at best6.1%Books6Markets39Rating47 · 53 levelExp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 7 Nov 06:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.44	3.35	2.80	6.5%
BetVictor	2.40	3.10	2.70	11.0%
Betano	2.37	3.15	2.70	11.0%
Bet365	2.30	3.40	2.60	11.4%
1xBet	2.28	3.30	2.63	12.2%
Marathonbet	2.28	3.30	2.63	12.2%
Best of all books	2.44	3.40	2.80	6.1%
Average	2.34	3.27	2.68	10.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

JoinvilleHercílio Luz

Last 1012Form pts · last 5102.4Goals for · last 51.40.4Goals against · last 50.863Attack rating3767Defence rating3355Form rating457H2H rating9361Goals model3947Overall rating53

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 6 Nov 23:40 UTC

Joinville

6W 0D 4L · goals 19:12 · per match 1.9 for, 1.2 against

1 Nov	H	Metropolitano	3-0	W
24 Oct	A	Figueirense	0-1	L
10 Oct	A	Santa Catarina	3-0	W
26 Sep	H	Barra	2-1	W
19 Sep	A	Nação	4-0	W
12 Sep	H	Hercílio Luz	1-3	L
5 Sep	H	Blumenau	1-0	W
30 Aug	A	Marcílio Dias	2-4	L
7 Jun	A	São Luiz	1-3	L
30 May	H	Guarany de Bagé	2-0	W

Hercílio Luz

6W 2D 2L · goals 18:12 · per match 1.8 for, 1.2 against

1 Nov	A	Santa Catarina	3-2	W
24 Oct	H	Blumenau	0-0	D
17 Oct	H	Barra	2-0	W
10 Oct	A	Figueirense	0-1	L
26 Sep	H	Nação	2-1	W
19 Sep	A	Marcílio Dias	2-4	L
12 Sep	A	Joinville	3-1	W
30 Aug	H	Metropolitano	4-2	W
25 Jul	A	Nação	2-1	W
22 Jul	H	Caravaggio	0-0	D

Head to head

0Joinville wins

2draws

6Hercílio Luz wins

8 meetings · goals 7:14 · last 8: 0W 2D 6L for Joinville

12 Sep 2026Copa Santa Catarina	Copa Santa Catarina	Joinville1-3Hercílio Luz
13 Feb 2025Catarinense - 1	Catarinense - 1	Hercílio Luz2-1Joinville
19 Oct 2024Copa Santa Catarina	Copa Santa Catarina	Joinville1-2Hercílio Luz
2 Feb 2024Catarinense - 1	Catarinense - 1	Hercílio Luz1-1Joinville
22 Oct 2023Copa Santa Catarina	Copa Santa Catarina	Hercílio Luz1-0Joinville
26 Feb 2023Catarinense - 1	Catarinense - 1	Hercílio Luz1-0Joinville
3 Feb 2022Catarinense - 1	Catarinense - 1	Joinville0-0Hercílio Luz
22 Apr 2021Catarinense - 1	Catarinense - 1	Hercílio Luz4-3Joinville

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg139%2.34X28%3.27234%2.68

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.1% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.08	1.73	5.9%
BetVictor	2.00	1.70	8.8%
1xBet	2.01	1.69	8.9%
Marathonbet	2.01	1.69	8.9%
Betano	1.98	1.67	10.4%
Best of all books	2.08	1.73	5.9%
Average	2.02	1.70	8.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
BetVictor	1.78	1.93	8.0%
1xBet	1.79	1.88	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.79	1.85	9.9%
Best of all books	1.79	1.93	7.7%
Average	1.79	1.89	9.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Joinville 45%Draw 45%Hercílio Luz 10%

The statistical model rates Joinville at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Hercílio Luz at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.34 | 3.27 | 2.68, which imply roughly 42.7% for a Joinville win versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Joinville averaged 2.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game; Hercílio Luz averaged 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Joinville or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.34	3.27	2.68

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.37	1.48	1.26

Draw no bet

1	2
1.73	1.98

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.79	1.89

1st half

1	X	2
3.00	2.06	3.41

2nd half

1	X	2
2.71	2.33	3.10

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.85	15.7	30.0
HT X	5.83	4.75	6.43
HT 2	28.3	15.5	4.46

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.90	8.80	2.09

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	9.00
1.5	1.31	3.01
2.5	2.02	1.70
3.5	3.65	1.21
4.5	7.25	1.07

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.03	7.70
1.25	1.16	4.10
1.75	1.40	2.61
2	1.52	2.26
2.25	1.77	1.89
2.75	2.30	1.51
3	2.88	1.32
3.25	3.28	1.25
4	6.40	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.75	1.36
-0.5	2.39	1.49
-0.25	2.01	1.67
0	1.73	1.98
+0.25	1.51	2.29
+0.5	1.39	2.70

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	10.0	1.02
-1.5	4.85	1.11
-1.25	4.35	1.14
-1	3.86	1.18
+0.75	1.26	3.20
+1	1.11	4.80
+1.5	1.07	5.80

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
9.5	2.00	1.74

Latest Copa Santa Catarina results

1 Nov	Marcílio Dias 2-2 Barra
31 Oct	Blumenau 3-2 Figueirense
24 Oct	Hercílio Luz 0-0 Blumenau
24 Oct	Figueirense 1-0 Joinville
23 Oct	Barra 3-0 Santa Catarina
18 Oct	Nação 0-1 Blumenau