Nasarawa United vs Niger Tornadoes• NPFL, Nigeria

#121.0:1.61-0FT27/09 · Lafia Township Stadium, Lafia1.0:1.2#16

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.53BTNX3.60BFR27.221XBMargin at best7.0%Books5Markets38Rating52 · 48 levelExp. goals L52.4

Price board · 1X2captured 26 Sep 16:15 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	1.53	3.55	6.50	8.9%
1xBet	1.45	3.50	7.38	11.1%
Betfair	1.47	3.60	6.50	11.2%
Bet365	1.50	3.40	6.25	12.1%
Marathonbet	1.44	3.50	6.95	12.4%
Best of all books	1.53	3.60	7.38	6.7%
Average	1.48	3.51	6.72	11.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Nasarawa UnitedNiger Tornadoes

Last 10#12Table position#161.38Points per game1.138Form pts · last 551.0Goals for · last 51.01.6Goals against · last 51.250Attack rating5043Defence rating5744Form rating5650H2H rating5067Goals model3352Overall rating48

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 22:01 UTC

Nasarawa United

4W 3D 3L · goals 11:10 · per match 1.1 for, 1.0 against

11 Oct	H	Doma United	2-0	W
4 Oct	A	Shooting Stars	0-0	D
27 Sep	H	Niger Tornadoes	1-0	W
23 Sep	A	Kwara United	1-2	L
20 Sep	H	Rivers United	1-1	D
18 Sep	A	Enugu Rangers	1-2	L
6 Sep	H	Bendel Insurance	1-0	W
30 Aug	A	Barau FC	1-3	L
17 Jun	H	Ikorodu City	1-1	D
11 Jun	H	Plateau United	2-1	W

Niger Tornadoes

3W 4D 3L · goals 7:7 · per match 0.7 for, 0.7 against

10 Oct	A	Ranchers Bees	0-0	D
4 Oct	H	Kun Khalifat FC	1-0	W
27 Sep	A	Nasarawa United	0-1	L
23 Sep	H	Warri Wolves	0-0	D
19 Sep	A	Katsina United	0-1	L
14 Sep	H	Plateau United	1-1	D
6 Sep	A	Kano Pillars	2-3	L
30 Aug	H	Enyimba	2-1	W
24 May	H	Shooting Stars	1-0	W
10 May	A	El Kanemi Warriors	0-0	D

Head to head

5Nasarawa United wins

1draws

5Niger Tornadoes wins

11 meetings · goals 7:8 · last 10: 5W 1D 4L for Nasarawa United

18 Jan 2026NPFL	NPFL	Nasarawa United2-1Niger Tornadoes
27 Aug 2025NPFL	NPFL	Niger Tornadoes1-0Nasarawa United
2 Feb 2025NPFL	NPFL	Nasarawa United2-0Niger Tornadoes
15 Sep 2024NPFL	NPFL	Niger Tornadoes0-0Nasarawa United
18 Jun 2022NPFL	NPFL	Niger Tornadoes1-0Nasarawa United
21 Feb 2022NPFL	NPFL	Nasarawa United1-0Niger Tornadoes
11 Feb 2018NPFL	NPFL	Niger Tornadoes1-0Nasarawa United
30 Jul 2017NPFL	NPFL	Nasarawa United1-0Niger Tornadoes
5 Mar 2017NPFL	NPFL	Niger Tornadoes2-0Nasarawa United
26 Jun 2016NPFL	NPFL	Nasarawa United1-0Niger Tornadoes

NPFL tablePremier Leagueupdated 18 Oct 17:01 UTC

In the NPFL table, Nasarawa United sit 12th with 11 points from 8 games, while Niger Tornadoes are 16th with 9 points from 8.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Enugu Rangers	8	5	2	1	14:9	+5	17
2	Rivers United	8	4	4	0	13:2	+11	16
3	Plateau United	8	4	2	2	13:8	+5	14
4	Doma United	9	4	2	3	11:11	0	14
5	Barau FC	8	3	4	1	12:9	+3	13
6	Ikorodu City	8	3	3	2	10:7	+3	12
7	Bendel Insurance	8	4	0	4	14:13	+1	12
8	Sporting Lagos	8	3	3	2	10:9	+1	12
9	Katsina United	8	3	3	2	10:11	-1	12
10	Kano Pillars	8	2	5	1	11:11	0	11
11	Kwara United	9	3	2	4	10:10	0	11
12	Nasarawa United	8	3	2	3	8:8	0	11
13	Shooting Stars	9	3	2	4	10:12	-2	11
14	Warri Wolves	8	3	1	4	6:7	-1	10
15	Abia Warriors	9	2	4	3	9:12	-3	10
16	Niger Tornadoes	8	2	3	3	6:7	-1	9
17	Kun Khalifat FC	9	2	3	4	8:15	-7	9
18	Ranchers Bees	9	2	2	5	10:13	-3	8
19	Enyimba	8	2	1	5	11:14	-3	7
20	Inter Lagos	8	1	2	5	5:13	-8	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg161%1.47X25%3.52214%6.50

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.48 → 1.48 0.0%X3.51 → 3.50 -0.3%26.72 → 6.52 -3.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.40	1.53	7.0%
1xBet	2.29	1.53	9.0%
Marathonbet	2.29	1.53	9.0%
Betano	2.25	1.50	11.1%
Best of all books	2.40	1.53	7.0%
Average	2.31	1.52	9.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	2.41	1.48	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.41	1.46	10.0%
Betano	2.35	1.47	10.6%
Best of all books	2.41	1.48	9.1%
Average	2.39	1.47	9.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Nasarawa United 45%Draw 45%Niger Tornadoes 10%

The statistical model rated Nasarawa United at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Niger Tornadoes at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.47 | 3.52 | 6.50, which imply roughly 68% for a Nasarawa United win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the NPFL table: Nasarawa United are 12th (11 pts, 8-8 goals), Niger Tornadoes 16th (9 pts, 6-7).

Over their last five matches, Nasarawa United averaged 1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Niger Tornadoes averaged 1 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Nasarawa United or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.48	3.51	6.72

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.06	2.40	1.23

Draw no bet

1	2
1.17	4.28

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.39	1.47

1st half

1	X	2
2.11	1.98	7.18

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.39	6.75	3.92

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.08	6.00
1.5	1.41	2.51
2.5	2.31	1.52
3.5	4.15	1.16
4.5	8.05	1.06

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.08	5.45
1.25	1.25	3.28
1.75	1.53	2.26
2	1.73	1.92
2.25	2.01	1.67
2.75	2.69	1.36
3	3.50	1.22
3.25	3.90	1.18
4	7.90	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	3.04	1.29
-1.5	2.49	1.42
-1.25	2.18	1.56
-1	1.90	1.81
-0.75	1.60	2.08
-0.25	1.28	3.08

4 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	5.00	1.10
-2	4.20	1.16
0	1.10	5.10
+0.25	1.07	5.80

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	1.74	2.01

Latest NPFL results

18 Oct	Niger Tornadoes 2-1 Ikorodu City
18 Oct	Enyimba 0-0 Warri Wolves
18 Oct	Rivers United 0-0 Barau FC
18 Oct	Plateau United 2-3 Sporting Lagos
18 Oct	Inter Lagos 0-2 Nasarawa United
17 Oct	Doma United 1-1 Kun Khalifat FC