Groene Ster vs GOES• Derde Divisie, Netherlands

#131.4:2.22-1FT11/102.0:1.8#8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.48DAFX3.90B36522.60B365Margin at best4.4%Books7Markets40Rating42 · 59Exp. goals L53.7

Price board · 1X2captured 11 Oct 06:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.19	3.90	2.80	7.0%
1xBet	2.10	3.65	2.79	10.9%
Betano	2.20	3.65	2.62	11.0%
Bet365	2.10	3.90	2.60	11.7%
Marathonbet	2.08	3.65	2.72	12.2%
Pinnacle	2.16	3.52	2.60	13.2%
William Hill	2.15	3.70	2.50	13.5%
Best of all books	2.20	3.90	2.80	6.8%
Average	2.14	3.71	2.66	11.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Groene SterGOES

Last 10#13Table position#81.00Points per game1.564Form pts · last 591.4Goals for · last 52.02.2Goals against · last 51.841Attack rating5945Defence rating5533Form rating6750H2H rating5030Goals model7042Overall rating59

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 11 Oct 14:11 UTC

Groene Ster

2W 3D 5L · goals 15:27 · per match 1.5 for, 2.7 against

3 Oct	A	Rijnvogels	1-5	L
27 Sep	H	Gemert	1-2	L
22 Sep	H	AFC Amsterdam	1-6	L
19 Sep	A	EVV	1-1	D
12 Sep	H	Zwaluwen	1-0	W
5 Sep	A	TOGB	3-3	D
2 Sep	H	Heerjansdam	2-1	W
30 Aug	H	Vvsb	3-3	D
22 Aug	A	Excelsior Maassluis	1-3	L
16 Aug	H	Roosendaal	1-3	L

GOES

4W 2D 4L · goals 17:20 · per match 1.7 for, 2.0 against

11 Oct	A	Groene Ster	1-2	L
4 Oct	H	UDI '19	0-4	L
26 Sep	A	Poortugaal	3-0	W
20 Sep	H	UNA	2-1	W
13 Sep	A	Dongen	3-2	W
6 Sep	A	Blauw Geel	2-2	D
2 Sep	H	Noordwijk	0-1	L
30 Aug	H	Rijnvogels	1-4	L
23 Aug	A	Gemert	2-2	D
16 Aug	H	EVV	3-2	W

Head to head

1Groene Ster wins

0draws

1GOES wins

2 meetings · goals 3:3 · last 2: 1W 0D 1L for Groene Ster

22 Feb 2026Derde Divisie - Sunday	Derde Divisie - Sunday	Groene Ster1-0GOES
21 Sep 2025Derde Divisie - Sunday	Derde Divisie - Sunday	GOES3-2Groene Ster

Derde Divisie tableDerde Divisieupdated 18 Oct 14:10 UTC

In the Derde Divisie table, Groene Ster sit 13th with 9 points from 9 games, while GOES are 8th with 14 points from 9.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	ACV	10	7	2	1	26:10	+16	23
1	Noordwijk	10	8	1	1	22:2	+20	25
2	VV Scherpenzeel	10	7	2	1	18:10	+8	23
2	Excelsior Maassluis	10	7	2	1	21:7	+14	23
3	Harkemase Boys	10	7	2	1	20:14	+6	23
3	FC Lisse	9	7	1	1	16:6	+10	22
4	Excelsior '31	10	7	1	2	28:9	+19	22
4	Rijnvogels	10	6	2	2	25:12	+13	20
5	SC Genemuiden	10	7	0	3	22:15	+7	21
5	UDI '19	9	5	2	2	18:9	+9	17
6	TEC	10	6	2	2	29:17	+12	20
6	Zwaluwen	10	5	1	4	11:14	-3	16
7	Sportlust '46	10	5	4	1	18:14	+4	19
7	Poortugaal	10	5	0	5	12:14	-2	15
8	Purmersteijn	10	5	3	2	19:12	+7	18
8	GOES	9	4	2	3	17:19	-2	14
9	Sparta Nijkerk	10	4	2	4	22:21	+1	14
9	Dongen	9	4	1	4	21:21	0	13
10	Hoogeveen	10	4	1	5	24:23	+1	13
10	Gemert	10	3	4	3	14:17	-3	13
11	ADO '20	10	4	1	5	19:21	-2	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	3	3	4	14:14	0	12
12	Hercules	10	3	1	6	12:22	-10	10
12	Roosendaal	9	3	0	6	15:20	-5	9
13	Staphorst	10	2	3	5	16:21	-5	9
13	Groene Ster	9	2	3	4	14:21	-7	9
14	Eemdijk	9	2	1	6	13:28	-15	7
14	TOGB	10	2	3	5	16:24	-8	9
15	DVS 33 Ermelo	10	1	3	6	13:19	-6	6
15	UNA	9	1	5	3	12:14	-2	8
16	Dovo	10	1	2	7	12:25	-13	5
16	Vvsb	10	2	2	6	13:21	-8	8
17	Hollandia	9	1	1	7	16:27	-11	4
17	Achilles Veen	10	2	0	8	8:22	-14	6
18	SVZW	10	0	1	9	9:28	-19	1
18	EVV	9	0	2	7	8:20	-12	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg138%2.34X25%3.66237%2.44

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.67 → 2.34 +40.1%X4.20 → 3.66 -12.9%23.60 → 2.44 -32.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.40	2.75	7.8%
Pinnacle	1.37	2.70	10.0%
1xBet	1.35	2.74	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.35	2.74	10.6%
Best of all books	1.40	2.75	7.8%
Average	1.37	2.73	9.7%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.33	2.95	9.1%
William Hill	1.36	2.80	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.33	2.88	9.9%
Best of all books	1.36	2.95	7.4%
Average	1.34	2.88	9.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Groene Ster 10%Draw 45%GOES 45%

The statistical model rated Groene Ster at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and GOES at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.34 | 3.66 | 2.44, which imply roughly 27.3% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Derde Divisie table: Groene Ster are 13th (9 pts, 14-21 goals), GOES 8th (14 pts, 17-19).

Over their last five matches, Groene Ster averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; GOES averaged 2 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or GOES and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.14	3.71	2.66

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.33	1.66	1.20

Draw no bet

1	2
1.67	2.05

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.34	2.88

1st half

1	X	2
2.50	2.45	3.23

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.77	21.5	1.97

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	21.0
1.5	1.10	6.00
2.5	1.37	2.73
3.5	1.94	1.73
4.5	3.14	1.27
5.5	5.00	1.12

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
2	1.10	5.10
2.25	1.23	3.42
2.75	1.43	2.46
3	1.54	2.21
3.25	1.75	1.91
3.75	2.16	1.56
4	2.55	1.41
4.25	2.79	1.34
5	4.95	1.11

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.31	1.54
-0.5	2.05	1.64
-0.25	1.90	1.80
0	1.64	2.08
+0.25	1.48	2.35
+0.5	1.41	2.56

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.50	1.03
-2	6.70	1.05
-1.75	3.17	1.27
-1.5	3.74	1.19
-1.25	3.34	1.24
-1	2.76	1.39
+0.75	1.25	3.28
+1	1.13	4.50
+1.5	1.09	5.35

Latest Derde Divisie results

18 Oct	GOES 2-6 FC Lisse
18 Oct	EVV 3-3 Roosendaal
17 Oct	Gemert 2-0 Achilles Veen
17 Oct	Hoogeveen 1-4 ACV
10 Oct	Vvsb 0-2 Blauw Geel
10 Oct	Excelsior Maassluis 3-2 TOGB