Numancia vs Navalcarnero• Segunda División RFEF - Group 5, Spain

#40.4:0.215:00Tomorrow1.6:1.6#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.73PINX3.65DAF25.25BVCMargin at best4.2%Books8Markets44Rating64 · 36Exp. goals L51.9

Price board · 1X2captured 23 Oct 18:11 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.66	3.65	4.90	8.0%
BetVictor	1.73	3.30	5.00	8.1%
Betano	1.62	3.60	5.20	8.7%
Pinnacle	1.73	3.38	4.60	9.1%
1xBet	1.70	3.22	4.82	10.6%
Betfair	1.65	3.30	5.00	10.9%
Bet365	1.57	3.60	5.00	11.5%
Marathonbet	1.68	3.22	4.70	11.9%
Best of all books	1.73	3.65	5.20	4.4%
Average	1.67	3.41	4.90	9.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

NumanciaNavalcarnero

Last 10#4Table position#91.86Points per game1.297Form pts · last 590.4Goals for · last 51.60.2Goals against · last 51.620Attack rating8089Defence rating1154Form rating4680H2H rating20100Goals model064Overall rating36

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 22 Oct 15:01 UTC

Numancia

4W 4D 2L · goals 9:5 · per match 0.9 for, 0.5 against

18 Oct	H	CF Talavera	0-0	D
11 Oct	A	Real Ávila	1-1	D
4 Oct	A	Getafe II	0-0	D
27 Sep	H	Guadalajara	1-0	W
19 Sep	A	SS Reyes	0-0	D
13 Sep	H	A Madrid III	2-0	W
6 Sep	A	Atlético Paso	2-0	W
22 Aug	H	Zaragoza	2-1	W
17 May	A	Poblense	1-2	L
10 May	H	Poblense	0-1	L

Navalcarnero

5W 4D 1L · goals 21:12 · per match 2.1 for, 1.2 against

18 Oct	A	Salamanca UDS	1-1	D
14 Oct	A	Recreativo Huelva	2-2	D
11 Oct	H	A Madrid III	1-1	D
4 Oct	A	RSD Alcalá	3-1	W
30 Sep	H	Real Murcia	3-1	W
27 Sep	H	Conquense	1-3	L
23 Sep	A	Saguntino	4-0	W
20 Sep	A	Atlético Tordesillas	2-2	D
13 Sep	H	Real Ávila	2-1	W
9 Sep	A	CF Talavera	2-0	W

Head to head

1Numancia wins

1draws

0Navalcarnero wins

2 meetings · goals 3:1 · last 2: 1W 1D 0L for Numancia

25 Feb 2024Segunda División RFEF - Group 5	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5	Navalcarnero1-1Numancia
15 Oct 2023Segunda División RFEF - Group 5	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5	Numancia2-0Navalcarnero

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 tableSegunda Rfef: Group 5updated 23 Oct 15:10 UTC

In the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table, Numancia sit 4th with 13 points from 7 games, while Navalcarnero are 9th with 9 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Conquense	7	4	2	1	16:9	+7	14
2	A Madrid III	7	4	2	1	10:7	+3	14
3	Real Valladolid II	7	4	1	2	14:6	+8	13
4	Numancia	7	3	4	0	6:1	+5	13
5	SS Reyes	7	4	1	2	11:7	+4	13
6	Salamanca UDS	7	4	1	2	11:8	+3	13
7	CF Talavera	7	3	3	1	9:6	+3	12
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	7	2	3	2	13:12	+1	9
9	Navalcarnero	7	2	3	2	10:10	0	9
10	Atlético Tordesillas	7	2	2	3	11:10	+1	8
11	RSD Alcalá	7	2	2	3	10:10	0	8
12	Guadalajara	7	2	2	3	12:13	-1	8
13	Real Ávila	7	2	1	4	7:11	-4	7
14	Atlético Paso	7	1	3	3	6:9	-3	6
15	Albacete II	7	1	3	3	9:21	-12	6
16	Real Madrid III	7	0	5	2	1:4	-3	5
17	Calvo Sotelo	7	1	2	4	3:10	-7	5
18	Getafe II	7	0	4	3	6:11	-5	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg155%1.65X26%3.44218%4.95

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.2% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.62 → 1.65 +1.9%X3.52 → 3.44 -2.3%24.87 → 4.95 +1.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.15	1.67	6.4%
Pinnacle	2.07	1.72	6.4%
BetVictor	2.30	1.57	7.2%
Betano	2.15	1.60	9.0%
1xBet	2.24	1.55	9.2%
Marathonbet	2.24	1.55	9.2%
Best of all books	2.30	1.72	1.6%
Average	2.19	1.61	7.7%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
BetVictor	2.10	1.65	8.2%
1xBet	2.11	1.64	8.4%
Betano	2.15	1.60	9.0%
Marathonbet	2.11	1.62	9.1%
Best of all books	2.15	1.65	7.1%
Average	2.12	1.63	8.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Numancia 45%Draw 45%Navalcarnero 10%

The statistical model rates Numancia at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Navalcarnero at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.65 | 3.44 | 4.95, which imply roughly 60.6% for a Numancia win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table: Numancia are 4th (13 pts, 6-1 goals), Navalcarnero 9th (9 pts, 10-10).

Over their last five matches, Numancia averaged 0.4 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per game; Navalcarnero averaged 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Numancia or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.67	3.41	4.90

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.12	2.06	1.25

Draw no bet

1	2
1.23	3.70

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.12	1.63

1st half

1	X	2
2.32	2.01	5.62

2nd half

1	X	2
2.05	2.34	5.03

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.52	18.3	55.3
HT X	4.31	4.90	10.3
HT 2	26.3	18.3	8.65

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.53	7.55	3.06

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.07	6.55
1.5	1.37	2.75
2.5	2.19	1.61
3.5	4.02	1.18
4.5	7.80	1.05

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.07	5.75
1.25	1.23	3.42
1.75	1.47	2.44
2	1.66	2.07
2.25	1.93	1.77
2.75	2.54	1.43
3	3.26	1.27
3.25	3.80	1.19
3.75	5.50	1.11
4	7.70	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	3.06	1.30
-1.25	2.69	1.38
-1	2.28	1.56
-0.75	1.89	1.81
-0.5	1.69	2.07
-0.25	1.47	2.41

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	6.60	1.05
-2.25	6.10	1.09
-2	5.70	1.08
-1.75	3.92	1.18
0	1.25	3.42
+0.25	1.17	4.00
+1	1.01	9.70

Next Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches

24 Oct	RSD Alcalá – SS Reyes
24 Oct	Atlético Paso – Real Ávila
25 Oct	Getafe II – Calvo Sotelo
25 Oct	Real Madrid III – Conquense
25 Oct	CF Talavera – Salamanca UDS
25 Oct	Guadalajara – Real Valladolid II

All Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 fixtures and the table

Latest Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 results

18 Oct	Salamanca UDS 1-1 Navalcarnero
18 Oct	Numancia 0-0 CF Talavera
18 Oct	RSD Alcalá 0-0 Real Madrid III
18 Oct	SS Reyes 2-1 Calvo Sotelo
18 Oct	Conquense 2-2 Atlético Paso
18 Oct	Atlético Tordesillas 3-0 Guadalajara