Derby vs Bolton• Championship, England

#230.8:2.220:0006/11 · Pride Park Stadium, Derby1.4:2.2#16

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.43PINX3.70BTN22.90BVCMargin at best2.7%Books9Markets79Rating48 · 52 levelExp. goals L53.3

Price board · 1X2captured 4 Nov 00:27 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.35	3.70	2.90	4.1%
Pinnacle	2.43	3.68	2.75	4.7%
Betano	2.32	3.70	2.85	5.2%
Betfair	2.30	3.60	2.80	7.0%
1xBet	2.33	3.55	2.78	7.1%
Marathonbet	2.31	3.55	2.77	7.6%
William Hill	2.30	3.40	2.80	8.6%
Bet365	2.25	3.50	2.80	8.7%
BetVictor	2.15	3.50	2.90	9.6%
Best of all books	2.43	3.70	2.90	2.7%
Average	2.30	3.58	2.82	6.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

DerbyBolton

Last 10#23Table position#160.50Points per game1.211Form pts · last 570.8Goals for · last 51.42.2Goals against · last 52.236Attack rating6450Defence rating5033Form rating6771H2H rating2927Goals model7348Overall rating52

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 3 Nov 22:50 UTC

Derby

0W 3D 7L · goals 6:22 · per match 0.6 for, 2.2 against

3 Nov	H	Norwich	0-4	L
31 Oct	A	Millwall	1-4	L
24 Oct	A	Sheffield Utd	1-1	D
17 Oct	H	Stoke City	0-1	L
14 Oct	A	QPR	1-4	L
10 Oct	H	Wrexham	1-1	D
19 Sep	A	Burnley	1-1	D
12 Sep	H	Birmingham	1-2	L
9 Sep	H	West Brom	0-1	L
5 Sep	A	West Ham	0-3	L

Bolton

4W 1D 5L · goals 15:21 · per match 1.5 for, 2.1 against

3 Nov	A	Charlton	1-0	W
31 Oct	H	Bristol City	2-3	L
23 Oct	H	Middlesbrough	1-5	L
17 Oct	A	Southampton	0-0	D
13 Oct	A	Wolves	3-1	W
10 Oct	H	Stoke City	1-2	L
20 Sep	A	Norwich	4-3	W
12 Sep	H	Cardiff	1-0	W
8 Sep	H	West Ham	2-3	L
5 Sep	A	Millwall	0-4	L

Head to head

8Derby wins

5draws

3Bolton wins

16 meetings · goals 26:12 · last 10: 6W 2D 2L for Derby

16 Mar 2024League One	League One	Derby1-0Bolton
2 Sep 2023League One	League One	Bolton2-1Derby
21 Jan 2023League One	League One	Derby2-1Bolton
27 Dec 2022League One	League One	Bolton0-0Derby
13 Apr 2019Championship	Championship	Derby4-0Bolton
29 Sep 2018Championship	Championship	Bolton1-0Derby
7 Apr 2018Championship	Championship	Derby3-0Bolton
19 Aug 2017Championship	Championship	Bolton1-2Derby
9 Apr 2016Championship	Championship	Derby4-1Bolton
8 Aug 2015Championship	Championship	Bolton0-0Derby

Championship tableChampionshipupdated 3 Nov 23:50 UTC

In the Championship table, Derby sit 23rd with 7 points from 14 games, while Bolton are 16th with 17 points from 14.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30:17	+13	28
2	Birmingham	14	7	5	2	26:13	+13	26
3	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	22:17	+5	26
4	Swansea	14	8	2	4	21:16	+5	26
5	West Brom	14	7	4	3	20:15	+5	25
6	Southampton	14	8	4	2	29:14	+15	24
7	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23:16	+7	24
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33:18	+15	22
9	Sheffield Utd	14	6	4	4	20:17	+3	22
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	19:16	+3	22
11	QPR	14	5	6	3	22:17	+5	21
12	Norwich	14	6	0	8	27:24	+3	18
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	23:24	-1	18
14	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	20:22	-2	18
15	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15:17	-2	18
16	Bolton	14	5	2	7	19:26	-7	17
17	Lincoln	14	4	3	7	14:24	-10	15
18	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19:20	-1	14
19	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15:19	-4	14
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	13:23	-10	14
21	Charlton	14	3	5	6	11:22	-11	14
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	18:26	-8	10
23	Derby	14	1	4	9	11:29	-18	7
24	Preston	14	1	2	11	12:30	-18	5

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg141%2.30X26%3.58233%2.82

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.20 → 2.30 +4.5%X3.54 → 3.58 +1.1%23.01 → 2.82 -6.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Betano	1.70	2.22	3.9%
Pinnacle	1.67	2.24	4.5%
Bet365	1.67	2.20	5.3%
Betfair	1.65	2.20	6.1%
1xBet	1.65	2.15	7.1%
Marathonbet	1.65	2.15	7.1%
BetVictor	1.69	2.00	9.2%
Best of all books	1.70	2.24	3.5%
Average	1.67	2.17	6.1%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.53	2.45	6.2%
Betano	1.57	2.32	6.8%
1xBet	1.53	2.35	7.9%
Bet365	1.57	2.25	8.1%
BetVictor	1.57	2.25	8.1%
William Hill	1.57	2.25	8.1%
Marathonbet	1.53	2.31	8.6%
Best of all books	1.57	2.45	4.5%
Average	1.55	2.31	7.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Derby 10%Draw 45%Bolton 45%

The statistical model rates Derby at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Bolton at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.30 | 3.58 | 2.82, which imply roughly 27.9% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Championship table: Derby are 23rd (7 pts, 11-29 goals), Bolton 16th (17 pts, 19-26).

Over their last five matches, Derby averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; Bolton averaged 1.4 scored and 2.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Bolton.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.30	3.58	2.82

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.39	1.59	1.28

Draw no bet

1	2
1.67	2.10

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.55	2.31

1st half

1	X	2
2.85	2.28	3.33

2nd half

1	X	2
2.57	2.60	3.01

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.60	13.5	27.8
HT X	5.78	5.84	6.86
HT 2	24.8	13.7	4.60

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.82	14.1	2.07

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	12.8
1.5	1.20	4.20
2.5	1.67	2.17
3.5	2.62	1.45
4.5	4.82	1.16
5.5	9.08	1.04
6.5	17.8	1.02
7.5	41.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	9.10
1.25	1.08	5.70
1.75	1.23	3.54
2	1.31	3.18
2.25	1.47	2.50
2.75	1.82	1.90
3	2.07	1.69
3.25	2.34	1.53
3.75	3.02	1.30
4	3.89	1.19
4.25	4.26	1.15
4.75	5.70	1.08
5	7.90	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.66	1.42
-0.5	2.28	1.62
-0.25	1.98	1.77
0	1.70	2.08
+0.25	1.51	2.40
+0.5	1.43	2.79

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	9.03	1.02
-2	8.10	1.02
-1.75	5.55	1.10
-1.5	4.29	1.17
-1.25	3.83	1.22
-1	3.46	1.28
+0.75	1.28	3.37
+1	1.15	4.71
+1.25	1.13	5.05
+1.5	1.11	5.49
+1.75	1.04	7.00
+2	1.01	10.0
+2.5	1.03	10.5

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
3.5	2.00	1.75

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.03	6.45
7.5	1.17	3.92
8.5	1.37	2.83
9.5	1.64	2.15
10.5	2.04	1.71
11.5	2.68	1.41
12.5	3.67	1.23
13.5	5.50	1.06

22 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6.75	1.04	6.19
7	1.05	5.92
7.25	1.11	4.66
7.75	1.19	3.72
8	1.21	3.53
8.25	1.30	3.02
8.75	1.42	2.56
9	1.48	2.41
9.25	1.58	2.20
9.75	1.77	1.94
10	1.82	1.94
10.25	1.98	1.74
10.75	2.24	1.56
11	2.44	1.47
11.25	2.57	1.42
11.75	2.99	1.30
12	3.40	1.23
12.25	3.57	1.21
12.75	4.28	1.14
13	5.11	1.08
13.25	5.30	1.07
14	7.10	1.01

Next Championship matches

4 Nov	Wrexham – Middlesbrough
4 Nov	Cardiff – West Ham
4 Nov	Bristol City – Wolves
7 Nov	Bristol City – Norwich
7 Nov	Wrexham – Wolves
7 Nov	Portsmouth – Stoke City

All Championship fixtures and the table

Latest Championship results

3 Nov	West Brom 1-1 Southampton
3 Nov	Birmingham 3-0 Millwall
3 Nov	Preston 2-3 Sheffield Utd
3 Nov	Watford 1-0 Lincoln
3 Nov	Blackburn 1-2 Stoke City
3 Nov	QPR 1-1 Burnley