Toluca vs Monterrey• Liga MX, Mexico

#51.6:1.801:00Tomorrow · Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca2.0:1.4#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.70BTNX4.45BTN25.00B365Margin at best1.3%Books10Markets83Rating50 · 50 levelExp. goals L53.4

Price board · 1X2captured 7 Nov 08:55 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	1.70	4.45	4.75	2.3%
Pinnacle	1.68	4.40	4.59	4.0%
Bet365	1.65	4.10	5.00	5.0%
Dafabet	1.66	4.40	4.50	5.2%
1xBet	1.63	4.25	4.34	7.9%
Betfair	1.62	4.20	4.40	8.3%
Marathonbet	1.61	4.25	4.35	8.6%
BetVictor	1.62	4.20	4.33	8.6%
SBO	1.63	4.02	4.05	10.9%
William Hill	1.62	3.80	4.00	13.0%
Best of all books	1.70	4.45	5.00	1.3%
Average	1.64	4.21	4.43	7.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

TolucaMonterrey

Last 10#5Table position#91.60Points per game1.504Form pts · last 581.6Goals for · last 52.01.8Goals against · last 51.444Attack rating5644Defence rating5633Form rating6760H2H rating4059Goals model4150Overall rating50

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 5 Nov 00:02 UTC

Toluca

2W 5D 3L · goals 20:19 · per match 2.0 for, 1.9 against

1 Nov	A	Club America	2-2	D
24 Oct	A	Leon	1-1	D
22 Oct	H	Club Tijuana	2-2	D
18 Oct	H	Atletico San Luis	1-1	D
10 Oct	A	Tigres UANL	2-3	L
3 Oct	A	Monterrey	1-2	L
26 Sep	A	Cruz Azul	3-3	D
21 Sep	H	Santos Laguna	2-3	L
16 Sep	A	Puebla	1-0	W
12 Sep	H	Atlas	5-2	W

Monterrey

4W 3D 3L · goals 15:14 · per match 1.5 for, 1.4 against

1 Nov	H	Club Tijuana	3-3	D
25 Oct	H	Guadalajara Chivas	0-1	L
22 Oct	A	Puebla	4-1	W
19 Oct	H	CF Pachuca	2-1	W
11 Oct	A	Club America	1-1	D
3 Oct	H	Toluca	2-1	W
26 Sep	A	Atlante FC	2-4	L
20 Sep	H	Cruz Azul	1-0	W
13 Sep	H	Tigres UANL	0-0	D
7 Sep	A	Toluca	0-2	L

Head to head

10Toluca wins

6draws

10Monterrey wins

26 meetings · goals 40:37 · last 10: 6W 1D 3L for Toluca

3 Oct 2026Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Monterrey2-1Toluca
7 Sep 2026Leagues Cup	Leagues Cup	Toluca2-0Monterrey
11 Jan 2026Liga MX	Liga MX	Monterrey0-1Toluca
7 Dec 2025Liga MX	Liga MX	Toluca3-2Monterrey
4 Dec 2025Liga MX	Liga MX	Monterrey1-0Toluca
25 Sep 2025Liga MX	Liga MX	Toluca6-2Monterrey
11 May 2025Liga MX	Liga MX	Toluca2-1Monterrey
8 May 2025Liga MX	Liga MX	Monterrey3-2Toluca
19 Jan 2025Liga MX	Liga MX	Toluca1-1Monterrey
1 Sep 2024Liga MX	Liga MX	Monterrey1-2Toluca

Liga MX tableLiga MX: Aperturaupdated 7 Nov 07:10 UTC

In the Liga MX table, Toluca sit 5th with 24 points from 15 games, while Monterrey are 9th with 21 points from 14.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Club America	15	8	5	2	36:21	+15	29
2	Guadalajara Chivas	15	8	5	2	25:14	+11	29
3	Cruz Azul	15	9	2	4	34:24	+10	29
4	Atlas	15	8	3	4	26:26	0	27
5	Toluca	15	6	6	3	31:21	+10	24
6	Club Tijuana	16	5	7	4	25:22	+3	22
7	Leon	15	6	4	5	22:20	+2	22
8	Santos Laguna	15	7	1	7	21:20	+1	22
9	Monterrey	14	6	3	5	26:21	+5	21
10	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	15	5	5	5	22:24	-2	20
11	Club Queretaro	14	6	2	6	18:21	-3	20
12	CF Pachuca	15	5	4	6	25:19	+6	19
13	Atletico San Luis	16	5	4	7	19:24	-5	19
14	Puebla	15	4	4	7	17:23	-6	16
15	Tigres UANL	15	3	6	6	15:22	-7	15
16	Atlante FC	15	3	5	7	16:24	-8	14
17	Necaxa	16	3	4	9	17:28	-11	13
18	FC Juarez	16	3	2	11	13:34	-21	11

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg157%1.64X22%4.21221%4.43

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.62 → 1.64 +1.2%X4.22 → 4.21 -0.2%24.41 → 4.43 +0.5%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Betano	1.47	2.75	4.4%
Pinnacle	1.46	2.76	4.7%
Betfair	1.40	2.88	6.2%
Bet365	1.44	2.70	6.5%
BetVictor	1.43	2.56	9.0%
1xBet	1.39	2.59	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.39	2.59	10.6%
Best of all books	1.47	2.88	2.7%
Average	1.43	2.69	7.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.44	2.70	6.5%
Bet365	1.50	2.50	6.7%
Betano	1.50	2.50	6.7%
1xBet	1.46	2.53	8.0%
Marathonbet	1.46	2.49	8.7%
BetVictor	1.44	2.55	8.7%
William Hill	1.44	2.45	10.3%
Best of all books	1.50	2.70	3.7%
Average	1.46	2.53	7.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Toluca 45%Draw 45%Monterrey 10%

The statistical model rates Toluca at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Monterrey at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.64 | 4.21 | 4.43, which imply roughly 61% for a Toluca win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga MX table: Toluca are 5th (24 pts, 31-21 goals), Monterrey 9th (21 pts, 26-21).

Over their last five matches, Toluca averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Monterrey averaged 2 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Toluca or draw and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.64	4.21	4.43

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.19	2.14	1.20

Draw no bet

1	2
1.28	3.36

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.46	2.53

1st half

1	X	2
2.09	2.55	4.41

2nd half

1	X	2
1.89	2.89	4.16

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.40	13.8	31.5
HT X	4.91	7.27	10.3
HT 2	17.7	14.7	7.36

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.50	22.0	2.51

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	16.0
1.5	1.11	5.81
2.5	1.43	2.69
3.5	2.08	1.72
4.5	3.42	1.28
5.5	6.28	1.10
6.5	12.1	1.03
7.5	20.3	1.01
8.5	50.5	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	11.5
1.75	1.11	4.95
2	1.13	4.50
2.25	1.27	3.21
2.75	1.51	2.39
3	1.65	2.13
3.25	1.86	1.89
3.75	2.33	1.54
4	2.76	1.38
4.25	2.94	1.32
4.75	3.89	1.18
5	5.05	1.10
5.25	5.35	1.09
6	9.30	–

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.55	1.47
-1.25	2.26	1.57
-1	2.05	1.76
-0.75	1.78	1.97
-0.5	1.64	2.25
-0.25	1.43	2.61

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	8.57	1.03
-3	7.50	1.03
-2.75	5.52	1.11
-2.5	4.52	1.15
-2.25	4.00	1.19
-2	3.75	1.24
-1.75	2.95	1.35
0	1.26	3.46
+0.25	1.22	3.87
+0.5	1.18	4.80
+0.75	1.11	5.57
+1	1.03	7.60
+1.5	1.03	8.70

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
2.5	1.23	3.95
3.5	1.52	2.45
4.5	1.89	1.80
5.5	2.85	1.39
6.5	4.20	1.20

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.03	9.75
6.5	1.08	7.00
7.5	1.16	4.75
8.5	1.29	3.19
9.5	1.53	2.33
10.5	1.90	1.85
11.5	2.41	1.50
12.5	3.18	1.29
13.5	4.40	1.19
14.5	5.80	1.11
15.5	7.80	1.06
16.5	9.75	1.03

8 more lines

Line	Over	Under
9.25	1.42	2.49
9.75	1.57	2.16
10	1.72	2.07
10.25	1.77	1.89
10.75	2.02	1.71
11	2.20	1.63
11.25	2.28	1.53
11.75	2.52	1.41

Next Liga MX matches

7 Nov	Atlas – CF Pachuca
8 Nov	Tigres UANL – Cruz Azul
8 Nov	U.N.A.M. - Pumas – Club America
9 Nov	Club Queretaro – Puebla
9 Nov	Leon – Guadalajara Chivas

All Liga MX fixtures and the table

Latest Liga MX results

7 Nov	Atlante FC 0-2 Santos Laguna
7 Nov	Atletico San Luis 0-1 FC Juarez
7 Nov	Necaxa 1-0 Club Tijuana
2 Nov	Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon
1 Nov	Santos Laguna 1-0 Necaxa
1 Nov	Club America 2-2 Toluca