AC Milan vs Atalanta• Serie A, Italy

#41.8:0.83-2FTToday · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan1.2:1.4#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.771XBX4.121XB25.00BVCMargin at best0.8%Books6Markets88Rating47 · 53 levelExp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Oct 12:54 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	1.77	4.12	4.82	1.5%
Marathonbet	1.74	4.05	4.75	3.2%
Pinnacle	1.72	3.99	4.97	3.3%
Bet365	1.70	4.10	4.50	5.4%
BetVictor	1.67	3.90	5.00	5.5%
William Hill	1.70	3.60	4.50	8.8%
Best of all books	1.77	4.12	5.00	0.8%
Average	1.72	3.96	4.76	4.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

AC MilanAtalanta

Last 10#4Table position#102.14Points per game1.298Form pts · last 561.8Goals for · last 51.20.8Goals against · last 51.460Attack rating4064Defence rating3660Form rating4015H2H rating85100Goals model047Overall rating53

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 02:10 UTC

AC Milan

5W 3D 2L · goals 19:12 · per match 1.9 for, 1.2 against

15 Oct	A	Red Bull Salzburg	4-0	W
11 Oct	A	Sassuolo	1-1	D
20 Sep	H	Lecce	3-0	W
16 Sep	H	Benfica	0-2	L
12 Sep	A	Lazio	2-2	D
6 Sep	A	Juventus	1-1	D
28 Aug	H	Venezia	2-0	W
23 Aug	A	Torino	2-1	W
15 Aug	A	Manchester United	4-2	W
8 Aug	A	Chelsea	0-3	L

Atalanta

6W 1D 3L · goals 13:9 · per match 1.3 for, 0.9 against

15 Oct	H	Pafos	3-1	W
12 Oct	H	Venezia	3-1	W
20 Sep	A	Juventus	0-2	L
12 Sep	H	Cagliari	1-2	L
5 Sep	A	AS Roma	1-2	L
31 Aug	H	Bologna	1-0	W
27 Aug	A	Hapoel Tel Aviv	1-0	W
23 Aug	H	Sassuolo	2-1	W
20 Aug	H	Hapoel Tel Aviv	0-0	D
14 Aug	H	Athletic Club	1-0	W

Head to head

10AC Milan wins

9draws

12Atalanta wins

31 meetings · goals 39:39 · last 10: 2W 3D 5L for AC Milan

10 May 2026Serie A	Serie A	AC Milan2-3Atalanta
28 Oct 2025Serie A	Serie A	Atalanta1-1AC Milan
20 Apr 2025Serie A	Serie A	AC Milan0-1Atalanta
6 Dec 2024Serie A	Serie A	Atalanta2-1AC Milan
25 Feb 2024Serie A	Serie A	AC Milan1-1Atalanta
10 Jan 2024Coppa Italia	Coppa Italia	AC Milan1-2Atalanta
9 Dec 2023Serie A	Serie A	Atalanta3-2AC Milan
26 Feb 2023Serie A	Serie A	AC Milan2-0Atalanta
21 Aug 2022Serie A	Serie A	Atalanta1-1AC Milan
15 May 2022Serie A	Serie A	AC Milan2-0Atalanta

Serie A tableSerie Aupdated 18 Oct 21:10 UTC

In the Serie A table, AC Milan sit 4th with 15 points from 7 games, while Atalanta are 10th with 9 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Inter	7	6	1	0	21:9	+12	19
2	AS Roma	7	5	2	0	16:3	+13	17
3	Lazio	6	5	1	0	11:4	+7	16
4	AC Milan	7	4	3	0	14:7	+7	15
5	Como	7	4	2	1	12:7	+5	14
6	Frosinone	7	4	1	2	13:9	+4	13
7	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	6:3	+3	13
8	Juventus	6	3	2	1	9:5	+4	11
9	Napoli	7	3	1	3	10:7	+3	10
10	Atalanta	7	3	0	4	10:11	-1	9
11	Lecce	7	3	0	4	9:12	-3	9
12	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	12:14	-2	8
13	Torino	6	2	1	3	7:9	-2	7
14	Bologna	7	1	2	4	6:10	-4	5
15	Monza	6	1	1	4	9:15	-6	4
16	Parma	6	1	1	4	4:10	-6	4
17	Udinese	7	1	1	5	9:16	-7	4
18	Genoa	7	1	1	5	5:13	-8	4
19	Fiorentina	7	1	1	5	8:17	-9	4
20	Venezia	7	1	0	6	6:16	-10	3

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg156%1.72X24%3.96220%4.76

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.87 → 1.72 -8.0%X3.64 → 3.96 +8.8%24.05 → 4.76 +17.5%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.68	2.38	1.5%
Pinnacle	1.63	2.40	3.0%
Marathonbet	1.63	2.31	4.6%
Bet365	1.62	2.30	5.2%
BetVictor	1.59	2.17	9.0%
Best of all books	1.68	2.40	1.2%
Average	1.63	2.31	4.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.60	2.30	6.0%
Bet365	1.62	2.20	7.2%
1xBet	1.60	2.22	7.5%
Marathonbet	1.60	2.19	8.2%
BetVictor	1.55	2.25	9.0%
Best of all books	1.62	2.30	5.2%
Average	1.59	2.23	7.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

AC Milan 45%Draw 45%Atalanta 10%

The statistical model rated AC Milan at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Atalanta at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.72 | 3.96 | 4.76, which imply roughly 58.1% for a AC Milan win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie A table: AC Milan are 4th (15 pts, 14-7 goals), Atalanta 10th (9 pts, 10-11).

Over their last five matches, AC Milan averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Atalanta averaged 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : AC Milan or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

AC Milan

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Goalkeeper

16M. Maignan

Defence

5K. De Winter
34Mario Gila
22Diego Moreira
31S. Pavlović

Midfield

14L. Modrić
80Y. Musah
12A. Rabiot

Attack

21S. Chukwueze
11C. Pulišić
9Gonçalo Ramos

Substitutes (14)

35V. Vladimirov
96L. Torriani
23F. Tomori
42F. Terracciano
8R. Loftus-Cheek
30A. Jashari
20O. Hutchinson
2P. Estupiñán
13S. Bocoum
28C. Comotto
70A. Cissè
73F. Camarda
41L. P. Bouyer
33D. Bartesaghi

Atalanta

Coach: M. Sarri

Goalkeeper

29M. Carnesecchi

Defence

31T. Kristensen
23S. Kolašinac

Midfield

10L. Samardžić
8Mario Pasalic
13Éderson
17C. De Ketelaere
47L. Bernasconi
16R. Bellanova

Attack

11J. Rowe
90N. Krstović

Substitutes (10)

70G. Gaetano
77D. Zappacosta
41J. Idele
40R. ObriÄ
53M. Plaia
45D. K. Pounga
9G. Scamacca
51M. Sonzogni
57M. Sportiello
59N. Zalewski

Match Statistics

AC MilanAtalanta

547Passes accurate423

7Shots insidebox6

4Shots outsidebox6

3Blocked Shots2

7Free Kicks3

6Shots on Goal4

2Goalkeeper Saves3

2Shots off Goal6

1Offsides1

601Total passes464

11Total Shots12

1Yellow Cards2

2Corner Kicks2

3Fouls10

0Red Cards0

56%Ball Possession44%

2.53Expected Goals1.71

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.72	3.96	4.76

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.20	2.10	1.24

Draw no bet

1	2
1.28	3.43

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.59	2.23

1st half

1	X	2
2.25	2.37	4.68

2nd half

1	X	2
2.01	2.72	4.22

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.53	14.4	35.3
HT X	4.68	6.27	10.3
HT 2	21.7	15.3	7.77

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.56	15.1	2.60

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	14.0
1.5	1.18	4.54
2.5	1.63	2.31
3.5	2.48	1.51
4.5	4.39	1.18
5.5	8.40	1.04
6.5	19.0	1.02
7.5	34.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	9.95
1	1.01	10.5
1.25	1.10	6.07
1.75	1.23	3.98
2	1.27	3.61
2.25	1.46	2.76
2.75	1.78	2.07
3	1.97	1.81
3.25	2.21	1.63
3.75	2.84	1.39
4	3.47	1.25
4.25	3.85	1.19
4.75	5.05	1.10
5	6.75	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.81	1.43
-1.25	2.50	1.53
-1	2.18	1.68
-0.75	1.87	1.93
-0.5	1.67	2.17
-0.25	1.48	2.57

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3	8.60	1.01
-2.75	6.48	1.08
-2.5	5.13	1.13
-2.25	4.78	1.16
-2	4.39	1.18
-1.75	3.50	1.30
0	1.28	3.50
+0.25	1.23	3.95
+0.5	1.21	4.24
+0.75	1.11	5.57
+1	1.03	8.30
+1.25	1.03	7.50
+1.5	1.01	8.90

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
2	1.20	4.31
2.5	1.56	2.32
3	1.87	1.95
3.5	2.12	1.68
4	3.15	1.33
4.5	2.52	1.52

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.05	6.03
6.5	1.15	4.04
7.5	1.33	2.88
8.5	1.69	2.08
9.5	2.07	1.69
10.5	2.60	1.39
11.5	3.45	1.21
12.5	4.73	1.11
13.5	6.51	1.04

17 more lines

Line	Over	Under
5	1.03	5.90
6	1.07	4.99
6.75	1.13	4.04
7	1.18	3.49
7.25	1.25	3.24
7.75	1.35	2.70
8	1.44	2.57
8.25	1.52	2.32
8.75	1.69	2.00
9	1.87	1.93
9.25	1.92	1.75
9.75	2.16	1.54
10	2.37	1.51
10.25	2.51	1.41
11	2.92	1.26
12	3.92	1.13
13	5.10	1.06

Next Serie A matches

19 Oct	Monza – Cagliari
19 Oct	Parma – Torino

All Serie A fixtures and the table

Latest Serie A results

18 Oct	Juventus 0-3 Lazio
18 Oct	Fiorentina 1-3 Como
18 Oct	Udinese 0-3 Lecce
17 Oct	AS Roma 2-0 Genoa
17 Oct	Bologna 1-3 Inter
17 Oct	Venezia 1-0 Napoli