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Luxembourg vs Bulgaria• UEFA Nations League, World

0.7:1.70-2FT06/10 · Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg0.3:1.7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.38PINX3.35BTN23.521XBMargin at best0.3%Books8Markets49Rating58 · 42Exp. goals L52.2

Price board · 1X2captured 4 Oct 12:30 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet2.103.523.703.1%
Marathonbet2.073.483.664.4%
Pinnacle2.093.303.516.6%
Betano2.053.353.507.2%
William Hill2.003.203.609.0%
BetVictor2.053.133.509.3%
Bet3651.833.753.509.9%
Betfair1.903.253.7510.1%
Best of all books2.103.753.751.0%
Average2.013.373.597.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 2 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

LuxembourgBulgaria
Last 106Form pts · last 520.7Goals for · last 50.31.7Goals against · last 51.767Attack rating3350Defence rating5075Form rating2550H2H rating500Goals model058Overall rating42

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 6 Oct 14:51 UTC

Luxembourg

4W 0D 6L · goals 8:11 · per match 0.8 for, 1.1 against

3 OctAEstonia0-1L
29 SepHIceland0-3L
26 SepABulgaria2-1W
6 JunAAlbania1-0W
3 JunHItaly0-1L
31 MarHMalta3-0W
26 MarAMalta2-0W
17 NovANorthern Ireland0-1L
14 NovHGermany0-2L
13 OctASlovakia0-2L

Bulgaria

3W 2D 5L · goals 16:17 · per match 1.6 for, 1.7 against

3 OctAIceland0-3L
29 SepHEstonia0-0D
26 SepHLuxembourg1-2L
5 JunAMoldova2-2D
1 JunHMontenegro0-1L
30 MarAIndonesia1-0W
27 MarASolomon Islands10-2W
18 NovHGeorgia2-1W
15 NovATürkiye0-2L
14 OctASpain0-4L

Head to head

1Luxembourg wins
3draws
2Bulgaria wins

6 meetings · goals 6:7 · last 6: 1W 3D 2L for Luxembourg

26 Sep 2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations LeagueBulgaria1-2Luxembourg
15 Nov 2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations LeagueLuxembourg0-1Bulgaria
12 Oct 2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations LeagueBulgaria0-0Luxembourg
20 Nov 2022FriendliesFriendliesLuxembourg0-0Bulgaria
10 Oct 2017World Cup - Qualification EuropeWorld Cup - Qualification EuropeLuxembourg1-1Bulgaria
6 Sep 2016World Cup - Qualification EuropeWorld Cup - Qualification EuropeBulgaria4-3Luxembourg

UEFA Nations League tableLeague A - Group Cupdated 6 Oct 18:11 UTC

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Spain330010:4+69
2England320111:3+86
3Croatia31023:12-93
4Czechia30032:7-50

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg141%2.29X31%3.03228%3.36

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

4 Oct 14:216 Oct 18:111 2.29X 3.032 3.36
12.01 → 2.29 +13.9%X3.37 → 3.03 -10.1%23.59 → 3.36 -6.4%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
1xBet2.321.663.3%
Marathonbet2.291.644.6%
Betfair2.301.606.0%
Bet3652.251.626.2%
Betano2.251.626.2%
Pinnacle2.241.616.8%
BetVictor2.151.609.0%
Best of all books2.321.663.3%
Average2.261.626.0%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3652.201.627.2%
Betfair2.101.677.5%
1xBet1.961.777.5%
Betano1.981.757.6%
BetVictor1.931.788.0%
Marathonbet1.961.758.2%
William Hill1.951.758.4%
Best of all books2.201.781.6%
Average2.011.737.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Luxembourg 45%Draw 45%Bulgaria 10%

The statistical model rated Luxembourg at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Bulgaria at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.29 | 3.03 | 3.36, which imply roughly 43.7% for a Luxembourg win versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Luxembourg averaged 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game; Bulgaria averaged 0.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Luxembourg or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Luxembourg

4-2-3-1

Coach: J. Strasser

Goalkeeper

  • 1A. Moris

Defence

  • 4F. Bohnert
  • 5V. Selimović
  • 13D. Carlson
  • 14E. Veiga

Midfield

  • 6J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz
  • 8E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos
  • 15Omar Natami
  • 11V. Thill
  • 17H. Kadamani

Attack

  • 9Jayson Videira Pereira
Substitutes (12)
  • 2E. Džogović
  • 7Aiman Dardari
  • 23L. Fox
  • 18S. Ikene
  • 16T. Kips
  • 22M. Martins
  • 19M. Olesen
  • 12T. Pereira Cardoso
  • 10T. Rupil
  • 21S. Thill
  • 3A. Qevani
  • 20M. Goncalves

Bulgaria

4-3-3

Coach: A. Ribarski

Goalkeeper

  • 1D. Naumov

Defence

  • 2Y. Stoyanov
  • 13S. Velkov
  • 6E. Tsenov
  • 15H. Petrov

Midfield

  • 8A. Kraev
  • 4I. Gruev
  • 11G. Rusev

Attack

  • 17M. Minchev
  • 9A. Iliev
  • 18K. Balov
Substitutes (12)
  • 14A. Chandarov
  • 19I. Turitsov
  • 7B. Tsonev
  • 22K. Stoyanov
  • 20V. Nikolov
  • 12D. Mitov
  • 21S. Ivanov
  • 3A. Hristov
  • 10Z. Dimitrov
  • 5K. Dimitrov
  • 23A. Bozhev
  • 16P. Panayotov

Match Statistics

LuxembourgBulgaria
512Passes accurate262
11Shots insidebox10
7Shots outsidebox3
1Blocked Shots1
15Free Kicks15
7Shots on Goal5
3Goalkeeper Saves7
10Shots off Goal7
2Offsides1
582Total passes347
18Total Shots13
1Yellow Cards3
5Corner Kicks4
15Fouls15
0Red Cards0
63%Ball Possession37%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.013.373.59

Double chance

1XX212
1.271.761.31

Draw no bet

12
1.432.65

Both teams to score

YesNo
2.011.73

1st half

1X2
2.692.054.26

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.787.902.51

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.058.00
1.51.402.75
2.52.261.62
3.54.211.20
4.58.341.04
5.513.11.02
6.521.0–
12 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.047.27
11.066.50
1.251.233.66
1.751.502.45
21.672.11
2.251.961.81
2.752.611.45
33.301.29
3.253.791.22
3.755.291.11
47.601.03
4.257.901.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-13.091.37
-0.752.391.54
-0.51.991.79
-0.251.772.02
01.482.58
+0.251.352.98
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.513.01.01
-2.58.771.02
-2.258.651.02
-28.201.04
-1.755.321.13
-1.53.951.21
-1.253.661.27
+0.51.293.47
+0.751.164.50
+11.047.30
+1.251.027.68
+1.51.038.63

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
5.51.752.00

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