Croatia vs 
Spain• UEFA Nations League, World
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 2 Oct 20:33 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.88 | 5.01 | 1.46 | 3.0% |
| Marathonbet | 6.80 | 4.95 | 1.44 | 4.4% |
| Betano | 6.80 | 4.45 | 1.47 | 5.2% |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.36 | 7.8% |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.50 | 1.40 | 9.0% |
| Best of all books | 7.00 | 5.01 | 1.47 | 2.3% |
| Average | 6.80 | 4.78 | 1.43 | 5.8% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 3 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 6 Oct 15:51 UTC
Croatia
4W 0D 6L · goals 12:25 · per match 1.2 for, 2.5 against
| 3 Oct | H | England | 0-7 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Spain | 1-4 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Czechia | 2-1 | W |
| 2 Jul | A | Portugal | 1-2 | L |
| 27 Jun | H | Ghana | 2-1 | W |
| 23 Jun | A | Panama | 1-0 | W |
| 17 Jun | A | England | 2-4 | L |
| 7 Jun | H | Slovenia | 2-1 | W |
| 2 Jun | H | Belgium | 0-2 | L |
| 1 Apr | A | Brazil | 1-3 | L |
Spain
10W 0D 0L · goals 24:5 · per match 2.4 for, 0.5 against
| 3 Oct | H | Czechia | 3-1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Croatia | 4-1 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | England | 3-2 | W |
| 19 Jul | H | Argentina | 1-0 | W |
| 14 Jul | A | France | 2-0 | W |
| 10 Jul | H | Belgium | 2-1 | W |
| 6 Jul | A | Portugal | 1-0 | W |
| 2 Jul | H | Austria | 3-0 | W |
| 27 Jun | A | Uruguay | 1-0 | W |
| 21 Jun | H | Saudi Arabia | 4-0 | W |
Head to head
8 meetings · goals 9:22 · last 8: 2W 1D 5L for Croatia
| 29 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League | UEFA Nations League | Spain4-1Croatia |
| 15 Jun 2024Euro Championship | Euro Championship | Spain3-0Croatia |
| 18 Jun 2023UEFA Nations League | UEFA Nations League | Croatia0-0Spain |
| 28 Jun 2021Euro Championship | Euro Championship | Croatia3-5Spain |
| 15 Nov 2018UEFA Nations League | UEFA Nations League | Croatia3-2Spain |
| 11 Sep 2018UEFA Nations League | UEFA Nations League | Spain6-0Croatia |
| 21 Jun 2016Euro Championship | Euro Championship | Croatia2-1Spain |
| 18 Jun 2012Euro Championship | Euro Championship | Croatia0-1Spain |
UEFA Nations League tableLeague A - Group Cupdated 6 Oct 18:11 UTC
In the UEFA Nations League table, Croatia sit 3rd with 3 points from 3 games, while Spain are 1st with 9 points from 3.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:4 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | England | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:3 | +8 | 6 |
| 3 | Croatia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:12 | -9 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.2% margin.
1X2 since open average price
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.57 | 2.42 | 5.0% |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 2.40 | 8.3% |
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 2.35 | 8.8% |
| Marathonbet | 1.51 | 2.35 | 8.8% |
| Best of all books | 1.57 | 2.42 | 5.0% |
| Average | 1.52 | 2.38 | 7.7% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.73 | 2.10 | 5.4% |
| Betano | 1.67 | 2.12 | 7.1% |
| 1xBet | 1.70 | 2.05 | 7.6% |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 2.00 | 7.8% |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 2.03 | 8.1% |
| Best of all books | 1.73 | 2.12 | 5.0% |
| Average | 1.71 | 2.06 | 7.2% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Croatia at 0% to win, the draw at 50% and Spain at 50% — against average 1X2 odds of 9.73 | 6.13 | 1.27, which imply roughly 16.3% for the draw versus the model's 50%.
Form context from the UEFA Nations League table: Croatia are 3rd (3 pts, 3-12 goals), Spain 1st (9 pts, 10-4).
Over their last five matches, Croatia averaged 1 goals scored and 4 conceded per game; Spain averaged 3.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Spain and +4.5 goals (goal line signal: over 4.5 goals).
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
Starting Lineups
Croatia
4-2-3-1Coach: S. Bilić
Goalkeeper
- 1D. Livaković
Defence
- 2J. Stanišić
- 6J. Šutalo
- 5L. Vušković
- 4J. Gvardiol
Midfield
- 10L. Modrić
- 18K. Jakić
- 13N. Vlašić
- 8M. Kovačić
- 14I. Perišić
Attack
- 20I. Matanović
Substitutes (12)
- 7D. Beljo
- 22J. Mišić
- 19Marco Pasalic
- 3M. Pongračić
- 15Mario Pasalic
- 12I. Pandur
- 16M. Baturina
- 21L. Sučić
- 11A. Budimir
- 23D. Kotarski
- 17P. Sučić
- 9A. Kramarić
Spain
4-2-3-1Coach: Luis de la Fuente
Goalkeeper
- 23Unai Simón
Defence
- 12Marc Pubill
- 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes
- 14Aymeric Laporte
- 22Marc Cucurella
Midfield
- 16Rodri
- 20Pedri
- 19Lamine Yamal
- 10Dani Olmo
- 15Álex Baena
Attack
- 21Mikel Oyarzabal
Substitutes (12)
- 4Iván Fresneda
- 17Fran García
- 2D. Huijsen
- 3Robin Le Normand
- 13Josep Martínez
- 6Mikel Merino
- 7Víctor Muñoz
- 11Yeremy Pino
- 1David Raya
- 18Martín Zubimendi
- 9Fermín
- 8Roberto Fernández
Match Statistics
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.80 | 4.78 | 1.43 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.83 | 1.11 | 1.18 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 5.05 | 1.14 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 1.71 | 2.06 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.88 | 2.57 | 1.87 |
First team to score
| Home | No Goal | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.30 | 18.8 | 1.37 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.02 | 15.4 |
| 1.5 | 1.14 | 4.72 |
| 2.5 | 1.52 | 2.38 |
| 3.5 | 2.39 | 1.61 |
| 4.5 | 3.89 | 1.22 |
| 5.5 | 6.87 | 1.06 |
| 6.5 | 11.8 | 1.04 |
| 7.5 | 16.5 | 1.01 |
13 more lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.02 | 12.5 |
| 1.75 | 1.15 | 4.26 |
| 2 | 1.19 | 3.84 |
| 2.25 | 1.38 | 2.90 |
| 2.75 | 1.66 | 2.16 |
| 3 | 1.85 | 1.91 |
| 3.25 | 2.12 | 1.75 |
| 3.75 | 2.70 | 1.45 |
| 4 | 3.26 | 1.30 |
| 4.25 | 3.54 | 1.25 |
| 4.75 | 4.69 | 1.13 |
| 5 | 6.25 | 1.06 |
| 5.25 | 6.40 | 1.05 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| +0.5 | 2.77 | 1.47 |
| +0.75 | 2.47 | 1.51 |
| +1 | 2.16 | 1.67 |
| +1.25 | 1.89 | 1.94 |
| +1.5 | 1.70 | 2.17 |
| +1.75 | 1.55 | 2.52 |
12 more lines
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.0 | 1.02 |
| -1 | 12.5 | 1.01 |
| -0.75 | 7.70 | 1.03 |
| 0 | 4.95 | 1.12 |
| +0.25 | 3.42 | 1.26 |
| +2 | 1.36 | 3.08 |
| +2.25 | 1.29 | 3.27 |
| +2.5 | 1.25 | 3.49 |
| +2.75 | 1.15 | 4.34 |
| +3 | 1.08 | 5.85 |
| +3.25 | 1.06 | 6.10 |
| +3.5 | 1.06 | 6.47 |
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