Estonia vs 
Iceland• UEFA Nations League, World
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 4 Oct 12:30 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.96 | 3.98 | 1.73 | 3.1% |
| Marathonbet | 4.90 | 3.94 | 1.71 | 4.3% |
| Betano | 4.65 | 3.90 | 1.67 | 7.0% |
| Pinnacle | 4.83 | 3.77 | 1.67 | 7.1% |
| BetVictor | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.67 | 9.4% |
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.70 | 10.1% |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 3.70 | 1.57 | 10.7% |
| William Hill | 4.33 | 3.60 | 1.67 | 10.8% |
| Best of all books | 5.00 | 3.98 | 1.73 | 2.9% |
| Average | 4.66 | 3.79 | 1.67 | 7.6% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 2 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 6 Oct 14:51 UTC
Estonia
4W 4D 2L · goals 11:11 · per match 1.1 for, 1.1 against
| 3 Oct | H | Luxembourg | 1-0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Bulgaria | 0-0 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Iceland | 1-1 | D |
| 9 Jun | H | Lithuania | 1-0 | W |
| 6 Jun | H | Faroe Islands | 1-0 | W |
| 30 Mar | A | Rwanda | 0-2 | L |
| 27 Mar | A | Kenya | 1-1 | D |
| 18 Nov | A | Cyprus | 4-2 | W |
| 13 Nov | A | Norway | 1-4 | L |
| 14 Oct | H | Moldova | 1-1 | D |
Iceland
3W 3D 4L · goals 12:14 · per match 1.2 for, 1.4 against
| 3 Oct | H | Bulgaria | 3-0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Luxembourg | 3-0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Estonia | 1-1 | D |
| 10 Jun | A | Argentina | 0-3 | L |
| 31 May | A | Japan | 0-1 | L |
| 31 Mar | A | Haiti | 1-1 | D |
| 28 Mar | A | Canada | 2-2 | D |
| 26 Feb | A | Mexico | 0-4 | L |
| 16 Nov | A | Ukraine | 0-2 | L |
| 13 Nov | A | Azerbaijan | 2-0 | W |
Head to head
2 meetings · goals 2:2 · last 2: 0W 2D 0L for Estonia
| 26 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League | UEFA Nations League | Iceland1-1Estonia |
| 8 Jan 2023Friendlies | Friendlies | Iceland1-1Estonia |
UEFA Nations League tableLeague A - Group Cupdated 6 Oct 18:11 UTC
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:4 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | England | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:3 | +8 | 6 |
| 3 | Croatia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:12 | -9 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.6% margin.
1X2 since open average price
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 1.96 | 3.1% |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 1.93 | 4.7% |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 1.90 | 5.8% |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 5.9% |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 2.05 | 5.9% |
| Betano | 1.82 | 1.95 | 6.2% |
| BetVictor | 1.79 | 1.88 | 9.1% |
| Best of all books | 1.92 | 2.08 | 0.2% |
| Average | 1.83 | 1.96 | 5.7% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 2.10 | 7.5% |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 2.10 | 7.5% |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 2.05 | 7.6% |
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 1.91 | 7.6% |
| Betano | 1.80 | 1.91 | 7.9% |
| Marathonbet | 1.81 | 1.89 | 8.2% |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 1.95 | 8.4% |
| Best of all books | 1.81 | 2.10 | 2.9% |
| Average | 1.74 | 1.99 | 7.7% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Estonia at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Iceland at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 5.63 | 3.88 | 1.59, which imply roughly 25.8% for the draw versus the model's 45%.
Over their last five matches, Estonia averaged 0.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game; Iceland averaged 2.3 scored and 0.3 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Iceland and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
Starting Lineups
Estonia
3-5-2Coach: J. Henn
Goalkeeper
- 12M. Igonen
Defence
- 3M. Paskotši
- 2M. Kuusk
- 5E. Tõugjas
Midfield
- 6R. Peetson
- 14P. Kristal
- 20M. Poom
- 10K. Palumets
- 13J. Saliste
Attack
- 7R. Saarma
- 17M. Männilaan
Substitutes (12)
- 1E. Grünvald
- 11M. Ainsalu
- 4M. Käit
- 23F. Liivak
- 9Karel Mustmaa
- 19M. Schjønning-Larsen
- 15M. Skvortsov
- 8M. Soomets
- 21A. Tamm
- 18T. Tammik
- 16J. Tamm
- 22K. Vallner
Iceland
4-3-3Coach: A. Gunnlaugsson
Goalkeeper
- 12H. Valdimarsson
Defence
- 4V. Pálsson
- 16S. Þórðarson
- 3D. Grétarsson
- 23H. Magnússon
Midfield
- 10G. Sigurðsson
- 8Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
- 7H. Haraldsson
Attack
- 18M. Anderson
- 9O. Óskarsson
- 22A. Guðjohnsen
Substitutes (12)
- 14B. Willumsson
- 2L. Tómasson
- 5Í. Þorvaldsson
- 11J. Þorsteinsson
- 21A. Sigurðsson
- 15A. Sampsted
- 1R. Rúnarsson
- 20Þ. Helgason
- 17A. Gunnarsson
- 13A. Einarsson
- 6A. Baldursson
- 19B. Bjarnason
Match Statistics
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.66 | 3.79 | 1.67 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.15 | 1.18 | 1.24 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 3.27 | 1.32 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 1.74 | 1.99 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.03 | 2.26 | 2.19 |
First team to score
| Home | No Goal | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.92 | 9.10 | 1.58 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.03 | 10.1 |
| 1.5 | 1.26 | 3.60 |
| 2.5 | 1.83 | 1.96 |
| 3.5 | 3.01 | 1.35 |
| 4.5 | 5.57 | 1.11 |
| 5.5 | 9.20 | 1.03 |
| 6.5 | 11.9 | 1.01 |
| 7.5 | 21.0 | – |
14 more lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | 1.01 | 8.75 |
| 1 | 1.02 | 8.10 |
| 1.25 | 1.14 | 4.67 |
| 1.75 | 1.33 | 3.06 |
| 2 | 1.41 | 2.71 |
| 2.25 | 1.64 | 2.21 |
| 2.75 | 2.07 | 1.73 |
| 3 | 2.43 | 1.51 |
| 3.25 | 2.70 | 1.41 |
| 3.75 | 3.65 | 1.22 |
| 4 | 4.95 | 1.12 |
| 4.25 | 5.20 | 1.10 |
| 4.75 | 6.00 | 1.06 |
| 5 | 8.95 | 1.02 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25 | 2.58 | 1.46 |
| +0.5 | 2.16 | 1.65 |
| +0.75 | 1.89 | 1.88 |
| +1 | 1.65 | 2.21 |
| +1.25 | 1.49 | 2.55 |
| +1.5 | 1.39 | 2.91 |
15 more lines
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 12.0 | 1.02 |
| -1.75 | 9.70 | 1.01 |
| -1.5 | 10.0 | 1.03 |
| -1.25 | 7.22 | 1.06 |
| -1 | 9.00 | 1.01 |
| -0.75 | 5.75 | 1.09 |
| -0.25 | 3.98 | 1.21 |
| 0 | 3.50 | 1.27 |
| +1.75 | 1.26 | 3.52 |
| +2 | 1.14 | 4.80 |
| +2.25 | 1.12 | 5.09 |
| +2.5 | 1.10 | 5.43 |
| +2.75 | 1.05 | 7.32 |
| +3 | 1.02 | 9.80 |
| +3.5 | 1.02 | 10.5 |
Cards in match
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 2.12 | 1.67 |
Latest UEFA Nations League results
| 6 Oct | England 3-0 Czechia |
| 6 Oct | Croatia 1-2 Spain |
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| 6 Oct | Luxembourg 0-2 Bulgaria |
| 6 Oct | Switzerland 3-0 FYR Macedonia |
| 6 Oct | Scotland 1-2 Slovenia |