Valmiera / BSS vs Super Nova 2• 1. Liga, Latvia

#23.2:1.81-1FT10/101.0:1.8#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.11B365X9.50B365219.0WHMargin at best5.9%Books8Markets54Rating66 · 34Exp. goals L53.9

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 09:02 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Bet365	1.11	9.50	15.0	7.3%
William Hill	1.10	7.50	19.0	9.5%
Betfair	1.07	9.50	17.0	9.9%
Dafabet	1.10	7.60	17.0	9.9%
Betano	1.11	7.40	13.0	11.3%
Pinnacle	1.07	8.88	14.4	11.7%
Marathonbet	1.08	7.30	17.3	12.1%
1xBet	1.08	7.30	17.0	12.2%
Best of all books	1.11	9.50	19.0	5.9%
Average	1.09	8.12	16.2	10.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Valmiera / BSSSuper Nova 2

Last 10#2Table position#92.30Points per game1.138Form pts · last 533.2Goals for · last 51.01.8Goals against · last 51.876Attack rating2450Defence rating5083Form rating1750H2H rating5069Goals model3166Overall rating34

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 18 Oct 06:40 UTC

Valmiera / BSS

7W 2D 1L · goals 29:12 · per match 2.9 for, 1.2 against

10 Oct	H	Super Nova 2	1-1	D
19 Sep	H	Riga Mariners	2-4	L
12 Sep	A	JDFS Alberts	2-1	W
5 Sep	H	Metta / LU	2-2	D
30 Aug	A	Rēzekne FA	6-1	W
22 Aug	H	Mārupe	4-1	W
8 Aug	A	Smiltene	4-1	W
1 Aug	H	Rīgas FS II	2-1	W
27 Jul	H	Riga FC II	3-0	W
18 Jul	A	Skanste	3-0	W

Super Nova 2

1W 4D 5L · goals 10:16 · per match 1.0 for, 1.6 against

10 Oct	A	Valmiera / BSS	1-1	D
19 Sep	H	Smiltene	0-2	L
11 Sep	A	Rēzekne FA	2-2	D
29 Aug	A	Leevon / PPK	1-2	L
23 Aug	H	Skanste	1-1	D
15 Aug	A	Mārupe	1-2	L
8 Aug	A	JFK Ventspils	2-0	W
31 Jul	H	Riga Mariners	0-3	L
25 Jul	A	JDFS Alberts	1-1	D
19 Jul	A	Riga FC II	1-2	L

Head to head

0Valmiera / BSS wins

1draws

0Super Nova 2 wins

1 meeting · goals 0:0 · last 1: 0W 1D 0L for Valmiera / BSS

26 May 20261. Liga

1. Liga

Super Nova 20-0Valmiera / BSS

1. Liga table1. Ligaupdated 18 Oct 15:50 UTC

In the 1. Liga table, Valmiera / BSS sit 2nd with 53 points from 23 games, while Super Nova 2 are 9th with 26 points from 23.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Metta / LU	23	19	3	1	96:18	+78	60
2	Valmiera / BSS	23	16	5	2	63:26	+37	53
3	Leevon / PPK	22	16	4	2	47:25	+22	52
4	Riga Mariners	23	15	5	3	54:30	+24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	22	12	4	6	44:31	+13	40
6	Mārupe	22	10	2	10	37:34	+3	32
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	36:39	-3	30
8	Skanste	23	8	2	13	46:48	-2	26
9	Super Nova 2	23	6	8	9	30:36	-6	26
10	Smiltene	23	5	5	13	34:61	-27	20
11	Tukums II	23	5	4	14	31:65	-34	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	5	3	15	37:65	-28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	22	3	6	13	21:45	-24	15
14	Rēzekne FA	23	1	3	19	17:70	-53	6

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg183%1.09X11%8.1226%16.2

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.12 → 1.09 -2.7%X7.30 → 8.12 +11.2%214.2 → 16.2 +14.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.33	3.25	6.0%
1xBet	1.24	3.34	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.24	3.34	10.6%
Best of all books	1.33	3.34	5.1%
Average	1.27	3.31	9.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.95	1.74	8.8%
William Hill	1.95	1.73	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.95	1.71	9.8%
Best of all books	1.95	1.74	8.8%
Average	1.95	1.73	9.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Valmiera / BSS 45%Draw 45%Super Nova 2 10%

The statistical model rated Valmiera / BSS at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Super Nova 2 at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.09 | 8.12 | 16.20, which imply roughly 91.7% for a Valmiera / BSS win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the 1. Liga table: Valmiera / BSS are 2nd (53 pts, 63-26 goals), Super Nova 2 9th (26 pts, 30-36).

Over their last five matches, Valmiera / BSS averaged 3.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Super Nova 2 averaged 1 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Valmiera / BSS or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.09	8.12	16.2

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.02	5.20	1.05

Draw no bet

1	2
1.05	7.85

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.95	1.73

1st half

1	X	2
1.42	3.19	11.0

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.19	22.5	4.53

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	29.0
1.5	1.06	8.50
2.5	1.27	3.31
3.5	1.59	2.15
4.5	2.26	1.52
5.5	3.80	1.20

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
2	1.06	6.05
2.75	1.27	3.14
3	1.32	2.88
3.25	1.45	2.42
3.75	1.71	1.94
4	1.87	1.77
4.25	2.10	1.61
4.75	2.56	1.40
5	2.97	1.30

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-3.25	2.32	1.49
-3	2.11	1.59
-2.75	1.91	1.78
-2.5	1.78	1.90
-2.25	1.65	2.09
-2	1.42	2.51

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	4.40	1.16
-4	3.50	1.22
-3.75	2.88	1.32
-3.5	2.53	1.41
-1.75	1.36	2.70
-1.5	1.31	2.92
-1	1.12	4.70
0	1.02	10.0

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	1.43	2.54
9	1.56	2.21
9.5	1.79	1.87
10	2.08	1.63
10.5	2.38	1.49
11	2.98	1.32

Latest 1. Liga results

18 Oct	JFK Ventspils 0-0 Mārupe
18 Oct	Valmiera / BSS 2-2 Tukums II
17 Oct	Riga Mariners 4-3 Skanste
17 Oct	Super Nova 2 1-3 Metta / LU
17 Oct	Smiltene 2-2 Riga FC II
11 Oct	Smiltene 3-2 Tukums II