Iceland vs 
Bulgaria• UEFA Nations League, World
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 30 Sep 16:16 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.70 | 7.48 | 3.1% |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.65 | 7.40 | 4.5% |
| Betano | 1.40 | 4.60 | 8.25 | 5.3% |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.40 | 7.50 | 6.5% |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.50 | 8.6% |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.00 | 7.50 | 9.8% |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.20 | 7.00 | 11.6% |
| Best of all books | 1.46 | 4.70 | 8.25 | 1.9% |
| Average | 1.41 | 4.39 | 7.52 | 6.9% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 2 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 6 Oct 14:51 UTC
Iceland
3W 3D 4L · goals 12:14 · per match 1.2 for, 1.4 against
| 3 Oct | H | Bulgaria | 3-0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Luxembourg | 3-0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Estonia | 1-1 | D |
| 10 Jun | A | Argentina | 0-3 | L |
| 31 May | A | Japan | 0-1 | L |
| 31 Mar | A | Haiti | 1-1 | D |
| 28 Mar | A | Canada | 2-2 | D |
| 26 Feb | A | Mexico | 0-4 | L |
| 16 Nov | A | Ukraine | 0-2 | L |
| 13 Nov | A | Azerbaijan | 2-0 | W |
Bulgaria
3W 2D 5L · goals 16:17 · per match 1.6 for, 1.7 against
| 3 Oct | A | Iceland | 0-3 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Estonia | 0-0 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Luxembourg | 1-2 | L |
| 5 Jun | A | Moldova | 2-2 | D |
| 1 Jun | H | Montenegro | 0-1 | L |
| 30 Mar | A | Indonesia | 1-0 | W |
| 27 Mar | A | Solomon Islands | 10-2 | W |
| 18 Nov | H | Georgia | 2-1 | W |
| 15 Nov | A | Türkiye | 0-2 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Spain | 0-4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings between Iceland and Bulgaria on record.
UEFA Nations League tableLeague A - Group Cupdated 6 Oct 18:11 UTC
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:4 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | England | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:3 | +8 | 6 |
| 3 | Croatia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:12 | -9 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.7% margin.
1X2 since open average price
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 1.98 | 3.1% |
| Betano | 1.85 | 2.00 | 4.1% |
| Marathonbet | 1.87 | 1.95 | 4.8% |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 5.6% |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 1.87 | 6.1% |
| BetVictor | 1.84 | 1.83 | 9.0% |
| Best of all books | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.0% |
| Average | 1.89 | 1.91 | 5.3% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 7.5% |
| Betano | 2.10 | 1.67 | 7.5% |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 1.67 | 7.5% |
| 1xBet | 2.02 | 1.72 | 7.6% |
| Marathonbet | 2.02 | 1.71 | 8.0% |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 1.65 | 8.2% |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 1.75 | 8.4% |
| Best of all books | 2.10 | 1.75 | 4.8% |
| Average | 2.06 | 1.69 | 7.8% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Iceland at 50% to win, the draw at 50% and Bulgaria at 0% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.43 | 4.38 | 7.21, which imply roughly 69.9% for a Iceland win versus the model's 50%.
Over their last five matches, Iceland averaged 2 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game; Bulgaria averaged 0.5 scored and 1 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Iceland or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
Starting Lineups
Iceland
4-4-2Coach: A. Gunnlaugsson
Goalkeeper
- 12H. Valdimarsson
Defence
- 18M. Anderson
- 17A. Gunnarsson
- 23H. Magnússon
- 19M. Ellertsson
Midfield
- 11J. Þorsteinsson
- 8Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
- 6A. Baldursson
- 21A. Sigurðsson
Attack
- 7H. Haraldsson
- 9O. Óskarsson
Substitutes (12)
- 3D. Grétarsson
- 13A. Einarsson
- 22A. Guðjohnsen
- 15D. Guðjohnsen
- 20Þ. Helgason
- 4V. Pálsson
- 1R. Rúnarsson
- 10G. Sigurðsson
- 16S. Þórðarson
- 5Í. Þorvaldsson
- 2L. Tómasson
- 14B. Willumsson
Bulgaria
4-5-1Coach: A. Ribarski
Goalkeeper
- 1D. Naumov
Defence
- 19I. Turitsov
- 5K. Dimitrov
- 13S. Velkov
- 21D. Velkovski
Midfield
- 11G. Rusev
- 8A. Kraev
- 20L. Petkov
- 4I. Gruev
- 14A. Chandarov
Attack
- 9A. Iliev
Substitutes (12)
- 23A. Bozhev
- 6E. Tsenov
- 2Y. Stoyanov
- 22K. Stoyanov
- 15H. Petrov
- 16M. Petkov
- 17V. Nikolov
- 12D. Mitov
- 3A. Hristov
- 10Z. Dimitrov
- 18K. Balov
- 7P. Panayotov
Match Statistics
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.41 | 4.39 | 7.52 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.09 | 2.80 | 1.19 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 1.13 | 5.43 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 2.06 | 1.69 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.93 | 2.33 | 6.71 |
First team to score
| Home | No Goal | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | 10.9 | 3.40 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.03 | 10.1 |
| 1.5 | 1.27 | 3.56 |
| 2.5 | 1.89 | 1.91 |
| 3.5 | 3.22 | 1.32 |
| 4.5 | 6.18 | 1.10 |
| 5.5 | 10.3 | 1.04 |
| 6.5 | 16.5 | 1.02 |
13 more lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | 1.01 | 9.43 |
| 1 | 1.01 | 9.10 |
| 1.25 | 1.13 | 4.96 |
| 1.75 | 1.35 | 3.03 |
| 2 | 1.41 | 2.78 |
| 2.25 | 1.64 | 2.24 |
| 2.75 | 2.09 | 1.73 |
| 3 | 2.45 | 1.51 |
| 3.25 | 2.74 | 1.41 |
| 3.75 | 3.64 | 1.21 |
| 4 | 4.95 | 1.11 |
| 4.25 | 5.30 | 1.09 |
| 5 | 8.90 | 1.02 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.75 | 2.71 | 1.45 |
| -1.5 | 2.20 | 1.66 |
| -1.25 | 1.94 | 1.85 |
| -1 | 1.71 | 2.14 |
| -0.75 | 1.54 | 2.42 |
| -0.5 | 1.46 | 2.67 |
13 more lines
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 8.70 | 1.03 |
| -3 | 7.50 | 1.03 |
| -2.75 | 5.71 | 1.10 |
| -2.5 | 4.49 | 1.17 |
| -2.25 | 4.00 | 1.21 |
| -2 | 3.53 | 1.28 |
| -0.25 | 1.32 | 3.32 |
| 0 | 1.14 | 5.10 |
| +0.25 | 1.17 | 4.97 |
| +0.5 | 1.13 | 5.90 |
| +0.75 | 1.08 | 7.43 |
| +1 | 1.08 | 7.20 |
| +1.5 | 1.03 | 9.73 |
Latest UEFA Nations League results
| 6 Oct | England 3-0 Czechia |
| 6 Oct | Croatia 1-2 Spain |
| 6 Oct | Moldova 0-4 Slovakia |
| 6 Oct | Estonia 0-0 Iceland |
| 6 Oct | Luxembourg 0-2 Bulgaria |
| 6 Oct | Switzerland 3-0 FYR Macedonia |