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Türkiye vs Italy• UEFA Nations League, World

0.0:1.01-4FT28/09 · Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Bursa0.0:2.0

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.80B365X3.66MAR22.54PINMargin at best2.4%Books9Markets61Rating35 · 65Exp. goals L51.5

Price board · 1X2captured 24 Sep 20:19 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet2.843.542.523.1%
Marathonbet2.813.502.494.3%
Betano2.823.352.525.0%
Pinnacle2.813.402.505.0%
Betfair2.883.402.386.2%
Bet3652.703.252.458.6%
BetVictor2.703.252.409.5%
William Hill2.703.202.4010.0%
SBO2.613.042.2914.9%
Best of all books2.883.542.522.7%
Average2.763.332.447.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 3 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

TürkiyeItaly
Last 103Form pts · last 5100.0Goals for · last 50.01.0Goals against · last 52.00Attack rating067Defence rating330Form rating013H2H rating880Goals model035Overall rating65

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 5 Oct 15:21 UTC

Türkiye

5W 0D 5L · goals 12:14 · per match 1.2 for, 1.4 against

2 OctABelgium0-3L
28 SepHItaly1-4L
25 SepHFrance0-1L
26 JunHUSA3-2W
20 JunHParaguay0-1L
14 JunAAustralia0-2L
6 JunAVenezuela2-1W
1 JunHFYR Macedonia4-0W
31 MarAKosovo1-0W
26 MarHRomania1-0W

Italy

6W 2D 2L · goals 16:9 · per match 1.6 for, 0.9 against

2 OctAFrance1-1D
28 SepATürkiye4-1W
25 SepHBelgium0-2L
7 JunAGreece1-0W
3 JunALuxembourg1-0W
31 MarABosnia & Herzegovina1-1D
26 MarHNorthern Ireland2-0W
16 NovHNorway1-4L
13 NovAMoldova2-0W
14 OctHIsrael3-0W

Head to head

0Türkiye wins
1draws
3Italy wins

4 meetings · goals 3:10 · last 4: 0W 1D 3L for Türkiye

28 Sep 2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations LeagueTürkiye1-4Italy
4 Jun 2024FriendliesFriendliesItaly0-0Türkiye
29 Mar 2022FriendliesFriendliesTürkiye2-3Italy
11 Jun 2021Euro ChampionshipEuro ChampionshipTürkiye0-3Italy

UEFA Nations League tableLeague A - Group Cupdated 6 Oct 18:11 UTC

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Spain330010:4+69
2England320111:3+86
3Croatia31023:12-93
4Czechia30032:7-50

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg135%2.72X27%3.45238%2.50

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

25 Sep 00:0128 Sep 17:311 2.70X 3.492 2.49
12.76 → 2.70 -2.2%X3.33 → 3.49 +4.8%22.44 → 2.49 +2.0%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
1xBet1.961.923.1%
Betano1.951.884.5%
Marathonbet1.931.894.7%
Pinnacle1.931.894.7%
Bet3651.901.905.3%
SBO1.901.885.8%
Betfair1.851.858.1%
BetVictor1.851.829.0%
Best of all books1.961.923.1%
Average1.911.885.6%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.672.156.4%
Betano1.702.077.1%
Bet3651.672.107.5%
1xBet1.702.057.6%
Marathonbet1.702.038.1%
William Hill1.751.958.4%
BetVictor1.672.058.7%
Best of all books1.752.153.7%
Average1.692.067.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Türkiye 10%Draw 45%Italy 45%

The statistical model rated Türkiye at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Italy at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.72 | 3.45 | 2.50, which imply roughly 29% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Türkiye averaged 0 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Italy averaged 0 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Italy.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Türkiye

3-4-3

Coach: V. Montella

Goalkeeper

  • 1A. Bayındır

Defence

  • 2Z. Çelik
  • 3M. Demiral
  • 15O. Kabak

Midfield

  • 18O. Aydın
  • 6O. Kökçü
  • 5S. Özcan
  • 13E. Elmalı

Attack

  • 10A. Güler
  • 21B. Yılmaz
  • 11C. Uzun
Substitutes (12)
  • 16İ. Yüksek
  • 8E. Tıknaz
  • 12M. Şengezer
  • 23O. Kocuk
  • 17İ. Kahveci
  • 20F. Kadıoğlu
  • 9D. Gül
  • 22M. Eskihellaç
  • 14A. Bardakcı
  • 7K. Aktürkoğlu
  • 19Y. Akgün
  • 4S. Akaydin

Italy

4-3-3

Coach: R. Mancini

Goalkeeper

  • 1G. Donnarumma

Defence

  • 2M. Kayode
  • 19G. Scalvini
  • 21A. Bastoni
  • 3M. Ruggeri

Midfield

  • 16D. Frattesi
  • 8S. Tonali
  • 6N. Fagioli

Attack

  • 10G. Raspadori
  • 7F. Esposito
  • 23S. Esposito
Substitutes (12)
  • 17N. Cambiaghi
  • 14G. Vicario
  • 12M. Carnesecchi
  • 22G. Di Lorenzo
  • 15I. Doumbia
  • 20D. Ghilardi
  • 9M. Kean
  • 13R. Mandragora
  • 4A. Romano
  • 11G. Scamacca
  • 18A. Vergara
  • 5R. Calafiori

Match Statistics

TürkiyeItaly
487Passes accurate426
6Shots insidebox12
9Shots outsidebox2
5Blocked Shots2
20Free Kicks11
3Shots on Goal8
4Goalkeeper Saves2
7Shots off Goal4
1Offsides2
571Total passes499
15Total Shots14
3Yellow Cards0
6Corner Kicks2
12Fouls21
0Red Cards0
54%Ball Possession46%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.763.332.44

Double chance

1XX212
1.531.411.30

Draw no bet

12
2.001.76

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.692.06

1st half

1X2
3.352.143.03

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.0411.11.92

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0310.2
1.51.283.47
2.51.911.88
3.53.281.31
4.56.521.09
5.511.91.03
6.524.71.01
7.550.5–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.019.45
11.018.90
1.251.134.76
1.751.353.04
21.452.66
2.251.692.15
2.752.171.68
32.581.47
3.252.901.38
3.753.991.18
45.501.09
4.255.901.07
59.701.03

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.52.721.44
-0.252.361.58
02.021.81
+0.251.702.11
+0.51.542.44
+0.751.382.93
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.512.31.02
-211.51.01
-1.757.951.03
-1.55.861.10
-1.255.271.13
-14.791.16
-0.753.381.30
+11.243.95
+1.251.184.46
+1.51.154.85
+1.751.076.89
+21.039.30
+2.51.029.53

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
3.51.0112.5
4.51.049.50
5.51.096.50
6.51.204.25
7.51.382.90
8.51.672.10
9.52.151.65
10.52.871.38
11.54.001.22
12.55.501.13
13.57.401.07
14.59.751.03
15.511.81.02
16.513.51.01
1 more line
LineOverUnder
91.931.88