Ulaanbaatar vs Deren• Premier League, Mongolia

#14.4:0.208:00Today3.2:1.2#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.80BTNX4.50B36523.30BFRMargin at best8.1%Books5Markets41Rating66 · 34Exp. goals L54.5

Price board · 1X2captured 28 Oct 21:18 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betfair	1.73	4.40	3.30	10.8%
1xBet	1.75	4.45	3.19	11.0%
Betano	1.80	4.30	3.10	11.1%
Marathonbet	1.73	4.45	3.12	12.3%
Bet365	1.75	4.75	2.88	12.9%
Best of all books	1.80	4.75	3.30	6.9%
Average	1.75	4.47	3.12	11.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

UlaanbaatarDeren

Last 10#1Table position#32.78Points per game2.2215Form pts · last 5104.4Goals for · last 53.20.2Goals against · last 51.258Attack rating4286Defence rating1460Form rating4062H2H rating3867Goals model3366Overall rating34

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 28 Oct 06:30 UTC

Ulaanbaatar

8W 1D 1L · goals 41:6 · per match 4.1 for, 0.6 against

25 Oct	A	Central Stallions	1-0	W
18 Oct	H	Central Stallions	2-0	W
14 Oct	H	Khovd Western	8-0	W
11 Oct	A	Erchim	3-1	W
5 Oct	H	Ulaangom City	8-0	W
30 Sep	A	Khovd	4-0	W
27 Sep	H	Hunters	5-3	W
20 Sep	A	Amtat FC	9-0	W
17 Sep	A	Deren	0-0	D
11 Aug	H	Hang Yuen	1-2	L

Deren

7W 2D 1L · goals 31:11 · per match 3.1 for, 1.1 against

25 Oct	H	Hunters	2-0	W
14 Oct	H	Erchim	5-0	W
11 Oct	A	Central Stallions	1-2	L
4 Oct	H	Khovd	3-3	D
1 Oct	A	Khovd Western	5-1	W
27 Sep	H	Amtat FC	5-2	W
20 Sep	A	Ulaangom City	5-0	W
17 Sep	H	Ulaanbaatar	0-0	D
12 Sep	A	Hunters	2-1	W
6 Jul	A	Ulaanbaatar	3-2	W

Head to head

8Ulaanbaatar wins

3draws

5Deren wins

16 meetings · goals 29:18 · last 10: 5W 3D 2L for Ulaanbaatar

17 Sep 2026Premier League	Premier League	Deren0-0Ulaanbaatar
6 Jul 2026Premier League	Premier League	Ulaanbaatar2-3Deren
27 Jun 2026Premier League	Premier League	Deren0-2Ulaanbaatar
23 May 2026Premier League	Premier League	Ulaanbaatar2-0Deren
26 Oct 2025Premier League	Premier League	Deren1-1Ulaanbaatar
20 Jul 2025Premier League	Premier League	Deren0-1Ulaanbaatar
11 Jun 2025Premier League	Premier League	Ulaanbaatar4-1Deren
9 Mar 2025Premier League	Premier League	Deren2-0Ulaanbaatar
22 Jun 2024Premier League	Premier League	Deren1-1Ulaanbaatar
21 Apr 2024Premier League	Premier League	Ulaanbaatar5-1Deren

Premier League tablePremier Leagueupdated 28 Oct 06:30 UTC

In the Premier League table, Ulaanbaatar sit 1st with 25 points from 9 games, while Deren are 3rd with 20 points from 9.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Ulaanbaatar	9	8	1	0	40:4	+36	25
2	Central Stallions	9	7	0	2	29:10	+19	21
3	Deren	9	6	2	1	28:9	+19	20
4	Hunters	9	5	0	4	31:19	+12	15
5	Khovd	8	3	1	4	27:25	+2	10
6	Erchim	9	3	0	6	14:32	-18	9
7	Amtat FC	9	3	0	6	14:37	-23	9
8	Khovd Western	9	2	0	7	17:40	-23	6
9	Ulaangom City	7	0	0	7	6:30	-24	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg151%1.75X20%4.42229%3.14

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.75 → 1.75 0.0%X4.50 → 4.42 -1.8%23.00 → 3.14 +4.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.22	4.00	7.0%
Betfair	1.20	4.00	8.3%
1xBet	1.19	3.74	10.8%
Marathonbet	1.19	3.74	10.8%
Best of all books	1.22	4.00	7.0%
Average	1.20	3.87	9.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.22	3.80	8.3%
1xBet	1.25	3.44	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.25	3.34	9.9%
Best of all books	1.25	3.80	6.3%
Average	1.24	3.53	9.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Ulaanbaatar 45%Draw 45%Deren 10%

The statistical model rates Ulaanbaatar at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Deren at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.75 | 4.42 | 3.14, which imply roughly 57.1% for a Ulaanbaatar win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Ulaanbaatar are 1st (25 pts, 40-4 goals), Deren 3rd (20 pts, 28-9).

Over their last five matches, Ulaanbaatar averaged 4.4 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per game; Deren averaged 3.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Ulaanbaatar or draw and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.75	4.47	3.12

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.27	1.89	1.14

Draw no bet

1	2
1.44	2.54

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.24	3.53

1st half

1	X	2
2.18	2.81	3.33

2nd half

1	X	2
2.04	3.13	3.20

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.68	13.6	21.8
HT X	5.60	8.81	8.81
HT 2	14.8	13.1	5.19

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.61	42.5	2.16

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.03	9.00
2.5	1.20	3.87
3.5	1.60	2.15
4.5	2.28	1.52
5.5	3.80	1.22

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
2	1.04	7.10
2.75	1.24	3.34
3	1.28	3.05
3.25	1.44	2.44
3.75	1.73	1.92
4	1.90	1.73
4.25	2.12	1.60
4.75	2.62	1.38
5	3.20	1.26

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	2.46	1.43
-1	2.25	1.54
-0.75	1.94	1.75
-0.5	1.75	1.87
-0.25	1.72	2.01
0	1.42	2.49

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	4.85	1.11
-2	4.25	1.15
-1.75	3.28	1.25
-1.5	2.74	1.35
+0.25	1.35	2.74
+0.75	1.27	3.14
+1	1.11	4.95
+1.5	1.08	5.65
+2	1.01	8.50

Latest Premier League results

24 Oct	Khovd Western 1-3 Amtat FC
14 Oct	Ulaanbaatar 8-0 Khovd Western
11 Oct	Central Stallions 2-1 Deren
4 Oct	Central Stallions 8-4 Khovd Western
1 Oct	Khovd Western 1-5 Deren
30 Sep	Khovd 0-4 Ulaanbaatar