Khovd Western vs Deren• Premier League, Mongolia

#72.0:2.71-5FT01/103.0:0.8#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

141.0BFRX14.0BFR21.06B365Margin at best3.9%Books3Markets25Rating27 · 73Exp. goals L54.3

Price board · 1X2captured 30 Sep 16:55 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	12.5	8.55	1.18	4.4%
Bet365	13.0	9.00	1.11	8.9%
Betfair	18.0	9.50	1.06	10.4%
Best of all books	18.0	9.50	1.18	0.8%
Average	14.5	9.02	1.12	7.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Khovd WesternDeren

Last 10#7Table position#30.50Points per game2.003Form pts · last 5112.0Goals for · last 53.02.7Goals against · last 50.833Attack rating6727Defence rating7323Form rating770H2H rating10024Goals model7627Overall rating73

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 14 Oct 07:10 UTC

Khovd Western

3W 0D 7L · goals 21:33 · per match 2.1 for, 3.3 against

10 Oct	H	Hunters	2-6	L
4 Oct	A	Central Stallions	4-8	L
1 Oct	H	Deren	1-5	L
21 Sep	H	Erchim	2-3	L
16 Sep	H	Ulaangom City	4-1	W
13 Sep	A	Khovd	0-4	L
4 Jul	A	Khoromkhon	3-1	W
1 Jul	H	Ulaangom City	2-3	L
28 Jun	A	Hunters	0-2	L
22 Jun	H	Khovd	3-0	W

Deren

7W 2D 1L · goals 28:12 · per match 2.8 for, 1.2 against

4 Oct	H	Khovd	3-3	D
1 Oct	A	Khovd Western	5-1	W
27 Sep	H	Amtat FC	5-2	W
20 Sep	A	Ulaangom City	5-0	W
17 Sep	H	Ulaanbaatar	0-0	D
12 Sep	A	Hunters	2-1	W
6 Jul	A	Ulaanbaatar	3-2	W
3 Jul	A	Central Stallions	3-0	W
30 Jun	H	Khangarid	2-1	W
27 Jun	H	Ulaanbaatar	0-2	L

Head to head

0Khovd Western wins

0draws

2Deren wins

2 meetings · goals 3:8 · last 2: 0W 0D 2L for Khovd Western

3 May 2026Premier League	Premier League	Khovd Western1-5Deren
27 Sep 2025Premier League	Premier League	Deren3-2Khovd Western

Premier League tablePremier Leagueupdated 14 Oct 07:10 UTC

In the Premier League table, Khovd Western sit 7th with 3 points from 6 games, while Deren are 3rd with 14 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Central Stallions	7	7	0	0	29:7	+22	21
2	Ulaanbaatar	6	5	1	0	29:4	+25	16
3	Deren	7	4	2	1	21:9	+12	14
4	Khovd	6	3	1	2	23:15	+8	10
5	Hunters	6	3	0	3	20:15	+5	9
6	Erchim	6	2	0	4	9:19	-10	6
7	Khovd Western	6	1	0	5	13:27	-14	3
8	Amtat FC	6	1	0	5	5:31	-26	3
9	Ulaangom City	6	0	0	6	4:26	-22	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg14%22.9X8%11.3288%1.04

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

114.5 → 35.0 +141.4%X9.02 → 11.7 +29.7%21.12 → 1.04 -7.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.22	4.00	7.0%
Betfair	1.17	4.50	7.7%
1xBet	1.19	4.16	8.1%
Best of all books	1.22	4.50	4.2%
Average	1.19	4.22	7.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.85	1.91	6.4%
Betfair	1.85	1.85	8.1%
Best of all books	1.85	1.91	6.4%
Average	1.85	1.88	7.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Khovd Western 0%Draw 50%Deren 50%

The statistical model rated Khovd Western at 0% to win, the draw at 50% and Deren at 50% — against average 1X2 odds of 22.90 | 11.34 | 1.04, which imply roughly 8.8% for the draw versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Khovd Western are 7th (3 pts, 13-27 goals), Deren 3rd (14 pts, 21-9).

Over their last five matches, Khovd Western averaged 2 goals scored and 2.7 conceded per game; Deren averaged 3 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Deren and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
14.5	9.02	1.12

Double chance

1X	X2	12
6.03	1.01	1.04

Draw no bet

1	2
10.0	1.03

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.85	1.88

1st half

1	X	2
11.5	3.70	1.33

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
4.33	34.0	1.20

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.04	8.50
2.5	1.19	4.22
3.5	1.57	2.31
4	1.76	1.94
4.5	2.19	1.67
5	3.00	1.32
5.5	3.34	1.29
6.5	5.84	1.09

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
0	9.10	1.03
+1.5	2.60	1.44
+2	2.08	1.67
+2.5	1.67	2.08
+2.75	2.00	1.80
+3	1.37	2.80