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Tivoli Gardens vs Chapelton• Premier League, Jamaica

#42.0:0.51-1FT27/09 · Edward Seaga Sports Complex, Kingston1.0:1.5#8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.27BTNX3.28PIN23.00BFRMargin at best7.9%Books5Markets41Rating57 · 43Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 26 Sep 08:15 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betfair2.003.403.408.8%
Betano2.053.303.358.9%
1xBet2.003.243.3211.0%
Bet3651.953.303.3011.9%
Marathonbet1.983.243.2412.2%
Best of all books2.053.403.407.6%
Average2.003.303.3210.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Tivoli GardensChapelton
Last 10#4Table position#82.00Points per game1.008Form pts · last 542.0Goals for · last 51.00.5Goals against · last 51.567Attack rating3375Defence rating2557Form rating4338H2H rating62100Goals model057Overall rating43

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 12 Oct 21:00 UTC

Tivoli Gardens

3W 2D 5L · goals 12:18 · per match 1.2 for, 1.8 against

4 OctATru-Juice2-0W
27 SepHChapelton1-1D
20 SepATreasure Beach1-1D
13 SepHHumble Lions3-0W
6 MayAPortmore United0-3L
3 MayHCavalier0-2L
30 AprATreasure Beach2-4L
27 AprAMolynes United0-2L
22 AprAMontego Bay United1-5L
19 AprHDunbeholden2-0W

Chapelton

3W 1D 6L · goals 16:29 · per match 1.6 for, 2.9 against

5 OctHWaterhouse0-6L
27 SepATivoli Gardens1-1D
20 SepHMolynes United2-1W
13 SepAMontego Bay United0-2L
6 MayHArnett Gardens2-7L
3 MayAWaterhouse0-3L
26 AprHSpanish Town Police6-2W
24 AprAMount Pleasant Academy2-5L
19 AprHPortmore United0-2L
15 AprATreasure Beach3-0W

Head to head

3Tivoli Gardens wins
2draws
3Chapelton wins

8 meetings · goals 12:10 · last 8: 3W 2D 3L for Tivoli Gardens

25 Mar 2026Premier LeaguePremier LeagueTivoli Gardens0-1Chapelton
29 Dec 2025Premier LeaguePremier LeagueTivoli Gardens2-0Chapelton
24 Aug 2025Premier LeaguePremier LeagueChapelton2-1Tivoli Gardens
27 Apr 2025Premier LeaguePremier LeagueChapelton2-2Tivoli Gardens
12 Feb 2025Premier LeaguePremier LeagueTivoli Gardens1-1Chapelton
1 Dec 2024Premier LeaguePremier LeagueChapelton2-3Tivoli Gardens
20 Feb 2023Premier LeaguePremier LeagueChapelton2-0Tivoli Gardens
29 Oct 2022Premier LeaguePremier LeagueTivoli Gardens3-0Chapelton

Premier League tablePremier Leagueupdated 12 Oct 00:10 UTC

In the Premier League table, Tivoli Gardens sit 4th with 8 points from 4 games, while Chapelton are 8th with 5 points from 5.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Montego Bay United54107:1+613
2Waterhouse431014:1+1310
3Racing United430110:3+79
4Tivoli Gardens42207:2+58
5Tru-Juice42115:2+37
6Cavalier42117:707
7Portmore United31206:3+35
8Chapelton51223:10-75
9Arnett Gardens41128:7+14
10Mount Pleasant Academy41123:6-34
11Dunbeholden51042:8-63
12Molynes United51044:12-83
13Treasure Beach40224:7-32
14Humble Lions50232:13-112

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg141%2.19X28%3.18231%2.95

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

26 Sep 11:2127 Sep 12:011 2.19X 3.182 2.95
12.00 → 2.19 +9.5%X3.30 → 3.18 -3.6%23.32 → 2.95 -11.1%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Bet3652.001.805.6%
Betano1.951.758.4%
1xBet1.931.759.0%
Marathonbet1.931.759.0%
Best of all books2.001.805.6%
Average1.951.768.0%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
1xBet1.751.939.0%
Marathonbet1.751.909.8%
Betano1.751.8710.6%
Best of all books1.751.939.0%
Average1.751.909.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Tivoli Gardens 45%Draw 45%Chapelton 10%

The statistical model rated Tivoli Gardens at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Chapelton at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.19 | 3.18 | 2.95, which imply roughly 45.7% for a Tivoli Gardens win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Tivoli Gardens are 4th (8 pts, 7-2 goals), Chapelton 8th (5 pts, 3-10).

Over their last five matches, Tivoli Gardens averaged 2 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game; Chapelton averaged 1 scored and 1.5 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Tivoli Gardens.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.003.303.32

Double chance

1XX212
1.251.691.25

Draw no bet

12
1.492.41

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.751.90

1st half

1X2
2.622.063.93

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.729.002.32

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.047.60
1.51.283.06
2.51.951.76
3.53.241.25
4.55.801.08
5.513.01.03
10 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.037.70
1.251.174.02
1.751.342.78
21.452.41
2.251.691.98
2.752.171.55
32.661.37
3.252.971.30
3.754.141.16
45.751.07

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-12.971.30
-0.752.301.49
-0.52.021.78
-0.251.741.93
01.482.39
+0.251.352.74
8 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.58.301.01
-27.401.03
-1.754.491.13
-1.53.841.18
-1.253.421.23
+0.751.164.10
+11.066.25
+1.51.037.30