Leones del Norte vs Libertad• Liga Pro, Ecuador

#80.6:1.84-1FTToday · Jaime Teran Olympic Stadium, Atuntaqui2.4:0.8#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.07BTNX3.43PIN23.73PINMargin at best4.3%Books9Markets78Rating36 · 65Exp. goals L52.8

Price board · 1X2captured 25 Oct 12:31 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.04	3.43	3.73	5.0%
Bet365	2.05	3.25	3.70	6.6%
1xBet	1.99	3.39	3.68	6.9%
Betano	2.07	3.30	3.50	7.2%
Dafabet	2.03	3.30	3.50	8.1%
Betfair	1.95	3.25	3.40	11.5%
Marathonbet	1.90	3.24	3.52	11.9%
William Hill	1.95	3.10	3.40	13.0%
BetVictor	1.83	3.00	3.13	19.9%
Best of all books	2.07	3.43	3.73	4.3%
Average	1.98	3.25	3.51	9.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Leones del NorteLibertad

Last 10#8Table position#71.30Points per game1.372Form pts · last 5120.6Goals for · last 52.41.8Goals against · last 50.820Attack rating8031Defence rating6914Form rating8650H2H rating5054Goals model4636Overall rating65

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 25 Oct 00:12 UTC

Leones del Norte

2W 2D 6L · goals 9:17 · per match 0.9 for, 1.7 against

18 Oct	H	Emelec	1-3	L
9 Oct	A	Libertad	0-3	L
19 Sep	A	Guayaquil City FC	1-1	D
13 Sep	H	Tecnico Universitario	0-1	L
8 Sep	A	Mushuc Runa SC	1-1	D
3 Sep	H	Orense SC	1-0	W
30 Aug	A	Emelec	1-2	L
22 Aug	H	Independiente del Valle	2-3	L
15 Aug	A	Manta FC	2-0	W
8 Aug	A	Aucas	0-3	L

Libertad

6W 2D 2L · goals 18:9 · per match 1.8 for, 0.9 against

17 Oct	H	Guayaquil City FC	4-0	W
9 Oct	H	Leones del Norte	3-0	W
20 Sep	A	Emelec	2-1	W
13 Sep	H	Independiente del Valle	2-3	L
7 Sep	A	Deportivo Cuenca	1-0	W
4 Sep	H	Emelec	1-1	D
30 Aug	A	Aucas	0-1	L
25 Aug	H	Macara	1-0	W
15 Aug	A	Guayaquil City FC	2-2	D
10 Aug	H	Universidad Catolica	2-1	W

Head to head

1Leones del Norte wins

1draws

1Libertad wins

3 meetings · goals 4:5 · last 3: 1W 1D 1L for Leones del Norte

9 Oct 2026Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Libertad3-0Leones del Norte
4 Jul 2026Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Libertad1-3Leones del Norte
28 Feb 2026Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Leones del Norte1-1Libertad

Liga Pro tableLiga Pro: Regular seasonupdated 25 Oct 20:40 UTC

In the Liga Pro table, Leones del Norte sit 8th with 39 points from 30 games, while Libertad are 7th with 41 points from 30.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	73:33	+40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	51:27	+24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	41:33	+8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	33:28	+5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	31:24	+7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	32:25	+7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	33:34	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	31:32	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	33:36	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	25:34	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	35:38	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	25:37	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	36:47	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	28:42	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	19:31	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	17:42	-25	21

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg146%1.98X28%3.25226%3.51

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.90 → 1.98 +4.2%X3.34 → 3.25 -2.7%23.72 → 3.51 -5.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.04	1.81	4.3%
Bet365	1.95	1.85	5.3%
Betano	1.95	1.82	6.2%
1xBet	1.98	1.77	7.0%
Betfair	2.00	1.73	7.8%
Marathonbet	1.94	1.74	9.0%
BetVictor	1.74	1.60	20.0%
Best of all books	2.04	1.85	3.1%
Average	1.94	1.76	8.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.83	1.91	7.0%
Betano	1.75	1.98	7.6%
Bet365	1.73	2.00	7.8%
William Hill	1.75	1.95	8.4%
1xBet	1.78	1.91	8.5%
Marathonbet	1.78	1.88	9.4%
BetVictor	1.62	1.73	19.5%
Best of all books	1.83	2.00	4.6%
Average	1.75	1.91	9.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Leones del Norte 10%Draw 45%Libertad 45%

The statistical model rated Leones del Norte at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Libertad at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.98 | 3.25 | 3.51, which imply roughly 30.8% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga Pro table: Leones del Norte are 8th (39 pts, 31-32 goals), Libertad 7th (41 pts, 33-34).

Over their last five matches, Leones del Norte averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Libertad averaged 2.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Libertad.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Leones del Norte

4-2-3-1

Coach: M. Córdoba

Goalkeeper

45M. Ramírez

Defence

29P. Madero
23N. Monserrat
2J. Morán
34S. Portocarrero

Midfield

5T. Coppo
6Emiliano Griffa
11M. Caramuto
99C. Solano
7M. Luque

Attack

40Juan Luis Anangonó León

Substitutes (12)

8C. Velez
16M. de la Cruz
25B. Kreiman
14A. Rosales
32A. Aguas
17T. Amilivia
18J. Arellano
22J. Arroyo
3F. Vargas
15I. Araujo
50Miguel Yordan Caicedo Orobio
31G. Padilla

Libertad

5-4-1

Coach: Jorge Célico

Goalkeeper

12D. Cabezas

Defence

17E. Patta
6B. Caicedo
2R. Morinigo
19O. Quiñónez
20J. Rodríguez

Midfield

70Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín
80X. Pineda
30J. Bravo
10G. Cortéz

Attack

33A. Chére

Substitutes (9)

63C. Valencia
7Carlos Alfredo Orejuela Quiñónez
1P. Mina
25M. Lucas
5C. Gruezo
49D. Coronel
8Stick Carlos Castro Palma
9E. Caicedo
11H. Batalla

Match Statistics

Leones del NorteLibertad

2.25Expected Goals1.87

294Passes accurate312

9Shots insidebox11

10Shots outsidebox6

3Blocked Shots3

7Free Kicks15

5Shots on Goal7

7Goalkeeper Saves1

11Shots off Goal7

1Offsides0

371Total passes392

19Total Shots17

2Yellow Cards1

5Corner Kicks4

16Fouls9

0Red Cards0

49%Ball Possession51%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.98	3.25	3.51

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.25	1.74	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
1.42	2.44

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.75	1.91

1st half

1	X	2
2.60	2.10	4.14

2nd half

1	X	2
2.35	2.38	3.70

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.17	13.8	37.4
HT X	4.90	4.88	7.92
HT 2	26.0	14.8	6.04

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.70	9.40	2.38

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	8.09
1.5	1.29	3.17
2.5	1.94	1.76
3.5	3.36	1.27
4.5	6.53	1.07
5.5	13.1	1.02
6.5	23.5	1.01

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.50
1	1.02	7.85
1.25	1.15	4.31
1.75	1.37	2.84
2	1.47	2.40
2.25	1.70	1.94
2.75	2.18	1.55
3	2.68	1.39
3.25	3.07	1.29
3.75	4.26	1.15
4	6.41	1.07
4.25	6.40	1.05
5	10.0	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	2.82	1.36
-0.75	2.22	1.55
-0.5	1.95	1.75
-0.25	1.66	2.01
0	1.41	2.59
+0.25	1.32	3.15

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	8.10	1.02
-2.25	7.70	1.03
-2	7.10	1.06
-1.75	4.68	1.15
-1.5	3.68	1.24
-1.25	3.32	1.29
+0.5	1.27	3.70
+0.75	1.16	4.71
+1	1.03	7.73
+1.25	1.02	8.00
+1.5	1.01	8.60

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.02	6.76
7.5	1.15	4.08
8.5	1.34	2.94
9.5	1.66	2.11
10.5	1.99	1.75
11.5	2.57	1.43
12.5	3.48	1.24
13.5	5.24	1.08

21 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6.75	1.03	6.49
7	1.04	6.22
7.25	1.10	4.86
7.75	1.17	3.88
8	1.19	3.68
8.25	1.28	3.14
8.75	1.40	2.64
9	1.45	2.49
9.25	1.55	2.26
9.75	1.73	1.99
10	1.88	1.84
10.25	1.93	1.78
10.75	2.18	1.60
11	2.36	1.50
11.25	2.49	1.45
11.75	2.89	1.33
12	3.27	1.25
12.25	3.43	1.23
12.75	4.10	1.15
13	4.86	1.10
13.25	5.05	1.09

Next Liga Pro matches

26 Oct

Tecnico Universitario – Mushuc Runa SC

All Liga Pro fixtures and the table

Latest Liga Pro results

25 Oct	Emelec 0-1 Guayaquil City FC
24 Oct	LDU de Quito 1-2 Macara
24 Oct	Orense SC 4-0 Delfin SC
24 Oct	Manta FC 0-2 Deportivo Cuenca
23 Oct	Independiente del Valle 0-0 Universidad Catolica
19 Oct	Mushuc Runa SC 1-1 Orense SC