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Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica• Liga Pro, Ecuador

#11.8:1.40-0FT23/10 · Estadio Banco De Guayaquil, Quito1.0:1.0#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.67BTNX4.10BTN25.40BTNMargin at best2.8%Books9Markets85Rating60 · 41Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 23 Oct 18:00 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betano1.674.105.402.8%
Pinnacle1.644.044.955.9%
1xBet1.623.915.077.0%
Bet3651.623.805.257.1%
Dafabet1.633.904.807.8%
Betfair1.603.904.609.9%
William Hill1.623.604.5011.7%
Marathonbet1.553.744.8511.9%
BetVictor1.533.304.1020.1%
Best of all books1.674.105.402.8%
Average1.613.814.849.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Independiente del ValleUniversidad Catolica
Last 10#1Table position#22.47Points per game1.708Form pts · last 571.8Goals for · last 51.01.4Goals against · last 51.064Attack rating3642Defence rating5856Form rating4471H2H rating2964Goals model3660Overall rating41

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 26 Oct 00:01 UTC

Independiente del Valle

4W 3D 3L · goals 14:12 · per match 1.4 for, 1.2 against

23 OctHUniversidad Catolica0-0D
17 OctAMacara0-1L
10 OctHAucas2-1W
25 SepAGualaceo SC2-0W
18 SepAFlamengo1-1D
13 SepALibertad3-2W
11 SepHFlamengo0-2L
5 SepHMacara3-1W
3 SepABarcelona SC1-2L
29 AugHUniversidad Catolica2-2D

Universidad Catolica

4W 4D 2L · goals 15:10 · per match 1.5 for, 1.0 against

18 OctABarcelona SC1-1D
11 OctHMacara0-1L
20 SepALDU de Quito1-2L
15 SepHOrense SC2-1W
10 SepAAstillero FC (Ecu)1-0W
6 SepADelfin SC1-0W
3 SepHAucas1-1D
29 AugAIndependiente del Valle2-2D
22 AugHManta FC5-1W
18 AugAMacara1-1D

Head to head

15Independiente del Valle wins
8draws
11Universidad Catolica wins

34 meetings · goals 53:46 · last 10: 5W 2D 3L for Independiente del Valle

29 Aug 2026Liga ProLiga ProIndependiente del Valle2-2Universidad Catolica
13 May 2026Supercopa de EcuadorSupercopa de EcuadorUniversidad Catolica0-3Independiente del Valle
1 May 2026Liga ProLiga ProUniversidad Catolica2-3Independiente del Valle
14 Dec 2025Liga ProLiga ProUniversidad Catolica0-1Independiente del Valle
8 Nov 2025Liga ProLiga ProIndependiente del Valle0-2Universidad Catolica
13 Oct 2025Copa EcuadorCopa EcuadorIndependiente del Valle1-2Universidad Catolica
29 Jun 2025Liga ProLiga ProUniversidad Catolica0-3Independiente del Valle
2 Mar 2025Liga ProLiga ProIndependiente del Valle1-1Universidad Catolica
29 Oct 2024Copa EcuadorCopa EcuadorIndependiente del Valle1-2Universidad Catolica
22 Oct 2024Copa EcuadorCopa EcuadorUniversidad Catolica0-1Independiente del Valle

Liga Pro tableLiga Pro: Regular seasonupdated 26 Oct 01:00 UTC

In the Liga Pro table, Independiente del Valle sit 1st with 74 points from 30 games, while Universidad Catolica are 2nd with 51 points from 30.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Independiente del Valle30242473:33+4074
2Universidad Catolica30149751:27+2451
3Macara30156941:33+851
4Aucas30148833:28+550
5LDU de Quito301371031:24+746
6Barcelona SC301111832:25+744
7Libertad301181133:34-141
8Leones del Norte301091131:32-139
9Guayaquil City FC301091133:36-339
10Emelec301091125:34-939
11Mushuc Runa SC309111035:38-338
12Deportivo Cuenca301061425:37-1236
13Orense SC30961536:47-1133
14Tecnico Universitario301021828:42-1432
15Delfin SC30771619:31-1228
16Manta FC30561917:42-2521

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg157%1.61X24%3.81219%4.84

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

21 Oct 03:0023 Oct 10:401 1.60X 3.812 4.88
11.61 → 1.60 -0.6%X3.75 → 3.81 +1.6%24.73 → 4.88 +3.2%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.772.065.0%
Bet3651.732.085.9%
Betano1.752.055.9%
1xBet1.722.056.9%
Betfair1.732.007.8%
Marathonbet1.692.018.9%
BetVictor1.571.7819.9%
Best of all books1.772.084.6%
Average1.712.008.4%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3651.732.007.8%
Betano1.722.008.1%
1xBet1.721.988.6%
William Hill1.672.058.7%
Marathonbet1.721.959.4%
BetVictor1.571.7819.9%
Best of all books1.732.056.6%
Average1.691.9610.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Independiente del Valle 45%Draw 45%Universidad Catolica 10%

The statistical model rated Independiente del Valle at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Universidad Catolica at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.61 | 3.81 | 4.84, which imply roughly 62.1% for a Independiente del Valle win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga Pro table: Independiente del Valle are 1st (74 pts, 73-33 goals), Universidad Catolica 2nd (51 pts, 51-27).

Over their last five matches, Independiente del Valle averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Universidad Catolica averaged 1 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Independiente del Valle or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Independiente del Valle

4-1-4-1

Coach: Joaquín Papa

Goalkeeper

  • 1A. Quintana

Defence

  • 4J. Espinoza
  • 14M. Carabajal
  • 15G. Cortéz
  • 8Y. Ochoa

Midfield

  • 16R. Briones
  • 11M. Perelló
  • 18Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios
  • 32J. Méndez
  • 99D. Reasco

Attack

  • 23Juan Viacava
Substitutes (12)
  • 6J. Alcívar
  • 9C. González
  • 19L. Loor
  • 31Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
  • 70M. Peralta
  • 28H. Quintana
  • 56E. Quintero
  • 13Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
  • 5R. Schunke
  • 10J. Sornoza
  • 33Andy René Velasco García
  • 52Y. Vásquez

Universidad Catolica

4-4-2

Coach: D. Martínez

Goalkeeper

  • 12J. Lara

Defence

  • 29G. Anangonó
  • 33L. Cangá
  • 3Jose García
  • 30E. Mejía

Midfield

  • 9A. Londoño
  • 8D. Clavijo
  • 5J. Cacciabue
  • 32M. Alonso

Attack

  • 7J. Fajardo
  • 28M. Díaz
Substitutes (12)
  • 26Foad Eid
  • 11J. Evans
  • 10F. Martínez
  • 37C. Medina
  • 14Jhostin David Mina Herrera
  • 15L. Moreno
  • 24Darwin Carlos Nazareno Arroyo
  • 18B. Palacios
  • 23Alex Andrés Rodríguez Reascos
  • 19M. Sevillano
  • 17R. Troya
  • 1Lucas Cueva Gordillo

Match Statistics

Independiente del ValleUniversidad Catolica
0.82Expected Goals0.37
277Passes accurate357
6Shots insidebox4
6Shots outsidebox6
3Blocked Shots6
11Free Kicks8
4Shots on Goal1
1Goalkeeper Saves4
5Shots off Goal3
3Offsides0
330Total passes415
12Total Shots10
1Yellow Cards4
8Corner Kicks3
8Fouls12
0Red Cards0
46%Ball Possession54%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.613.814.84

Double chance

1XX212
1.152.181.22

Draw no bet

12
1.233.48

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.691.96

1st half

1X2
2.122.304.96

2nd half

1X2
1.932.634.56

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 12.3515.645.3
HT X4.325.8010.9
HT 223.016.28.70

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.4812.62.73

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0411.3
1.51.213.76
2.51.712.00
3.52.681.38
4.54.821.13
5.58.341.03
6.519.21.01
7.550.5–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.039.10
1.251.095.30
1.751.243.44
21.313.10
2.251.502.29
2.751.851.78
32.151.58
3.252.381.45
3.753.211.27
44.221.15
4.254.561.13
4.756.151.06
58.751.01

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.52.631.45
-1.252.281.52
-12.011.70
-0.751.731.95
-0.51.582.20
-0.251.392.64
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.59.901.02
-310.11.01
-2.756.331.08
-2.55.141.13
-2.254.551.15
-24.311.19
-1.753.201.31
01.233.84
+0.251.184.30
+0.51.175.00
+0.751.076.43
+11.057.95
+1.51.038.90

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
6.51.065.61
7.51.243.52
8.51.452.50
9.51.791.92
10.52.271.55
11.53.051.31
12.54.241.14
13.56.421.03
21 more lines
LineOverUnder
6.751.075.36
71.085.11
7.251.154.11
7.751.243.32
81.273.14
8.251.372.74
8.751.512.34
91.582.21
9.251.692.04
9.751.891.81
102.021.71
10.252.141.62
10.752.441.47
112.701.38
11.252.841.34
11.753.351.24
123.881.17
12.254.071.15
12.754.931.09
136.001.04
13.256.211.04

Next Liga Pro matches

26 OctTecnico Universitario – Mushuc Runa SC

All Liga Pro fixtures and the table

Latest Liga Pro results

25 OctAucas 0-4 Barcelona SC
25 OctEmelec 0-1 Guayaquil City FC
25 OctLeones del Norte 4-1 Libertad
24 OctLDU de Quito 1-2 Macara
24 OctOrense SC 4-0 Delfin SC
24 OctManta FC 0-2 Deportivo Cuenca